NBL 2026 finals scenarios, final round schedule, ladder standings, where every team could finish

With one round left in the 2025-26 NBL season, the race for the top four is still shifting, and the final standings will shape very different paths into the finals.

The Sydney Kings are all but certain to claim top spot, while Adelaide are battling to hold on to second. The South East Melbourne Phoenix are also pushing hard to secure a top two position and lock in home-court advantage.

Further down, Melbourne United sit fifth and are fighting to stay in the mix; a strong result this round could lift them into fourth if Perth Wildcats slip against Adelaide. All ten clubs have now completed 32 games, with just one remaining, setting up a dramatic close to the regular season.

CURRENT NBL STANDINGS

1. Sydney Kings: 23-9 (112.74%)

2. Adelaide 36ers: 23-9 (105.85%)

3. S.E Melbourne Phoenix: 22-10 (109.00%)

4. Perth Wildcats: 20-12 (105.21%)

5. Melbourne United: 19-13 (104.69%)

6. Tasmania JackJumpers: 14-18 (100.79%)

7. New Zealand Breakers: 12-20 (97.75%)

8. Illawarra Hawks: 12-20 (94.77%)

9. Cairns Taipans: 9-23 (86.72%)

10. Brisbane Bullets: 6-26 (85.51%)

NBL FINALS FORMAT (explained in more detail here)

Play-In Qualifier: Fifth place hosts Sixth place

Seeding Qualifier: Third hosts Fourth

Play-In: Seeding Qualifier Loser (3 or 4) hosts Play-In Qualifier Winner (5 or 6)

Playoff Series 1: First vs Play-In Winner

Playoff Series 2: Second vs Seeding Qualifier Winner

Championship Series: Playoff Series 1 Winner vs Playoff Series 2 Winner

TEAM-BY-TEAM SCENARIOS

1. Sydney Kings: 23-9 (112.74%)

Schedule: vs Brisbane Bullets, 7:30pm AEDT, Friday 20 February, at Brisbane Entertainment Centre

Win: A victory would effectively lock in first place, with percentage likely keeping them ahead of Adelaide.

Loss: Opens the door for Adelaide to jump into top spot.

Prediction: Brisbane sit at the bottom while Sydney are the form team of the competition, first place is theirs to lose.

2. Adelaide 36ers: 23-9 (105.85%)

Schedule: vs Perth Wildcats, 9:30pm AEDT, Friday 20 February, at RAC Arena

Win: Arguably their biggest game of the season. A victory would lock in a top two finish and keep the door open for first.

Loss: Gives the South East Melbourne Phoenix a chance to leapfrog them into second.

Prediction: Adelaide to come up big and secure their top two spot.

3. S.E Melbourne Phoenix: 22-10 (109.00%)

Schedule: vs Melbourne United, 7:30pm AEDT, Thursday 19 February, at John Cain Arena

Win: Puts them right in contention to jump Adelaide for second.

Loss: Locks them into third if they fall to United.

Prediction: Given United’s recent form, Phoenix look well placed to take this one and keep the pressure on Adelaide.

4. Perth Wildcats: 20-12 (105.21%)

Schedule: vs Adelaide 36ers, 9:30pm AEDT, Friday 20 February, at RAC Arena

Win: Secures fourth spot ahead of Melbourne United.

Loss: Leaves the door slightly ajar for Melbourne United to jump them on percentage, though it remains unlikely. Fourth still looks the most probable outcome.

Prediction: Even at home, potential absences for Dylan Windler and Ben Henshall tilt this towards Adelaide.

5. Melbourne United: 19-13 (104.69%)

Schedule: vs South East Melbourne Phoenix, 7:30pm AEDT, Thursday 19 February, at John Cain Arena

Win: If Perth lose and United record a convincing win, a move into fourth is still possible.

Loss: Confirms a fifth-place finish and a play-in clash with Tasmania.

Prediction: Recent form hasn’t been convincing, and with Phoenix flying, fifth appears the most likely landing spot.

6. Tasmania JackJumpers: 14-18 (100.79%)

Schedule: vs Illawarra Hawks, 7:30pm AEDT, Wednesday 18 February, at MyState Bank Arena

Win: Their ladder position won’t change, sixth is already locked in.

Loss: Only impacts their final record, their play-in spot is secure regardless.

Prediction: With injuries piling up and Illawarra close to full strength, a loss looks the more likely result.

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7. New Zealand Breakers: 12-20 (97.75%)

Schedule: vs Cairns Taipans, 5:30pm AEDT, Thursday 19 February, at Eventfinda Stadium

Win: With little on the line, a victory would see them finish seventh.

Loss: If they fall and Illawarra win, they could slide to eighth.

Prediction: With focus shifting to the Ignite Cup for New Zealand, Cairns look well placed to take this one.

8. Illawarra Hawks: 12-20 (94.77%)

Schedule: vs Tasmania JackJumpers, 7:30pm AEDT, Wednesday 18 February, at MyState Bank Arena

Win: Their title defence is over, but a victory could still lift them into seventh.

Loss: Locks them into eighth and shifts focus fully to the NBL27 rebuild.

Prediction: With Tasmania undermanned, the Hawks look well placed to finish their season on a positive note.

9. Cairns Taipans: 9-23 (86.72%)

Schedule: vs New Zealand Breakers, 5:30pm AEDT, Thursday 19 February, at Eventfinda Stadium

Win: Pride is the main motivator, a victory won’t change their ladder position.

Loss: They will still finish ninth, but it would confirm seventh for the Breakers.

Prediction: Recent performances have been competitive despite the record, Cairns look a good chance to grab the win.

10. Brisbane Bullets: 6-26 (85.51%)

Schedule: vs Sydney Kings, 7:30pm AEDT, Friday 20 February, at Brisbane Entertainment Centre

Win: Would be a major upset given the gap between the sides, and could hand Adelaide 36ers a pathway to first place.

Loss: The expected result, and one that would confirm Sydney on top of the ladder.

Prediction: Two teams heading in opposite directions, it shapes as a tough night for Brisbane.

PREDICTED FINAL STANDINGS

1. Sydney Kings: 24-9