The 2025–26 NBL Finals are here. It starts with a seeding qualifier between the South East Melbourne Phoenix and the Perth Wildcats, the first step in what should be a month of high-level basketball before a champion is crowned.
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Tonight’s clash brings together two of the in-form teams in the league and should set the tone for the entire finals series.
Phoenix have outperformed most pre-season predictions. Perth, after a shaky start following the departure of import Mason Jones, have found rhythm despite operating without a traditional point guard. Two genuine contenders, one early statement to be made.
GROUNDHOG DAY
There is a sense of déjà vu about this matchup, even if the script has shifted slightly.
Last season, Perth finished third and beat fourth-placed South East Melbourne 122-105 in the seeding qualifier to advance straight to the semi-finals. The Phoenix responded by defeating the Adelaide 36ers 85-75 before falling 2-1 to the Illawarra Hawks in the semis.
Fast forward 12 months and the positions are reversed. The Phoenix are now third, Perth fourth. Josh King’s side head in as favourites, although plenty still see the Wildcats as the dark horse of the finals. Depending on who you ask, this feels close to a coin toss.
HEAD-TO-HEAD
The teams split their four regular season meetings. Perth won the last two by an average of eight points and exposed some inside vulnerabilities, holding Jordan Hunter to just eight points in both wins.
Recent form might not favour the home side, but the venue does. The Wildcats are 0-7 at John Cain Arena since their last win there in 2023. That said, they were one of the best road teams in the league this season, finishing 11-5 away from home. Something has to give.
THE MATCHUPS TO WATCH
Kristian Doolittle looms as a key figure. One of the league’s premier two-way players, he is likely to spend plenty of time on Nathan Sobey, who leads Phoenix with 22.0 points per game. Do not be surprised, though, if he also finds himself matched up with Defensive Player of the Year John Brown III in what could be a defining battle.
Ben Henshall is expected to take on Owen Foxwell. Henshall’s size and length can bother the young guard, but Foxwell’s speed presents its own problems.
David Duke Jr, still searching for his first win against Phoenix, will probably go head-to-head with Wes Iwundu, another seasoned defensive wing who rarely gives an inch.
Depth could be decisive. Malique Lewis, Ian Clark and Angus Glover provide scoring punch off the Phoenix bench. Perth’s rotation is thinner, particularly with the absence of Jaron Rillie and David Okwera.
WHO WINS?
Phoenix play at one of the fastest paces in the league, 82.3 possessions per game, compared to Perth’s 78. If Josh King’s side are to win, they need to push tempo, attack the glass and maintain a high-possession game. They live and die by the three-point shot, so efficiency from deep matters.
For Perth, the blueprint is clear. Slow it down, reduce possessions, lean into their size and score inside. They also need to capitalise at the free throw line. The Wildcats lead the league in attempts at 23.2 per game but rank just sixth in percentage at 74.6%. Much of that comes back to Jo Lual-Acuil Jr, who must impose himself at both ends.
There are genuine arguments for either side. It may well come down to execution in the final minutes. If Perth embrace the ‘dark horse’ tag, they are capable of silencing the crowd. If Phoenix win, it further underlines that their rise is no fluke.
The loser is not eliminated. They move into the Play-In game to face the winner of Melbourne versus Tasmania. The winner, however, advances straight to a semi-final series against the Adelaide 36ers, who are waiting.
Tip-off is at 7:30pm AEDT tonight at John Cain Arena.
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