The NBL Finals tip off this Wednesday night as South East Melbourne Phoenix face the Perth Wildcats in the seeding qualifier at 7.30pm AEDT at John Cain Arena.
The road to the championship begins with six teams still in contention, some better placed than others, and Fox Sports Australia spoke with several experts for their predictions on how the finals series could unfold.
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Insights from 2018 NBL champion and analyst Peter Hooley, commentator Brad Rosen, and 2001 NBL champion and media personality Damon Lowery revealed a clear consensus: the Sydney Kings are the side to beat, and it may take near-perfect performances from their rivals to stop them.
When asked who they see as the standout favourite, all three were aligned.
WHO WILL WIN THE CHAMPIONSHIP?
“Sydney are the best defensive team and incredible versatility to be able to adapt to whatever an opposition throws at them,” Hooley said.
The Kings finished the regular season ranked first in both offensive and defensive rating, a combination that often points to championship success, something Lowery echoed.
“Sydney will win it all because they have the offensive and defensive depth, they have a coach who’s built for combat, and they got KD [Kendric Davis] (Kills Defenders),” Lowery said.
Sydney closed the regular season on an eleven-game winning streak, hitting their peak form at the right time, which can be difficult to achieve. Rosen was succinct in his assessment, backing them as the strongest title chance.
“Sydney Kings. At this stage they are just playing fantastic basketball and have so many weapons.” he said.
Every contender has a side capable of shaking up the script, and according to the experts, one team in particular fits that bill, the Perth Wildcats.
WHO IS THE DARK HORSE?
“Perth. They are playing their best basketball at the right time. Have all the right pieces to cause headaches for other teams.” Peter Hooley said.
The Wildcats head into this week’s seeding qualifier with confidence after winning their past two meetings with the South East Melbourne Phoenix, and belief within the group is strong.
“If they all play to the level that they are capable of, they can cause some serious damage.” Brad Rosen said.
In typical fashion, Damon Lowery took a different view, dismissing the label altogether.
“I don’t believe dark horses are legitimate, if they were, they would be a regular horse,” Lowery said.
Perth finished the regular season fourth with a 21–12 record, and despite flying slightly under the radar, they shape as a genuine threat to make a deep finals run.
Who is the player to watch this finals series? All three experts went in different directions, but the common thread is clear, each selection is an elite talent capable of carrying his side to a title.
PLAYER TO WATCH
Brad Rosen looked beyond the obvious names in Bryce Cotton and Kendric Davis, instead pointing to Torrey Craig, the NBA veteran who joined the Sydney Kings earlier this year.
Since arriving in the league, Craig has been central to the Kings’ defensive edge, bringing experience and versatility that has strengthened them on both ends of the floor.
Peter Hooley highlighted another standout two-way force, selecting Kristian Doolittle, who has led the Perth Wildcats throughout his third season.
“Two seasons ago he showed the ability to level up in the post-season, what does he have in store this time around?” Hooley said.
In last year’s finals, Doolittle averaged 24.0 points, 10.3 rebounds and 4.8 assists across four appearances against the Phoenix and United, producing one of the strongest stretches of his career.
One of the more obvious choices is Kendric Davis, coming off a remarkable season, but Damon Lowery believes he enters the playoffs with extra motivation following the reaction to last week’s NBL awards.
“Kendric Davis, because he’s been severely slighted by the haters and he thrives on that.” Lowery said.
Davis has played just two finals games in his NBL career, both with Adelaide 36ers last season, with his lone win coming against the Kings. Now, he heads into the playoffs determined to cement his status among the league’s elite and push for a championship.
EXPERTS PREDICTIONS
Championship:
Peter Hooley – Sydney Kings
Damon Lowery – Sydney Kings
Brad Rosen – Sydney Kings
Dark horse:
Peter Hooley – Perth Wildcats
Damon Lowery – N/A
Brad Rosen – Perth Wildcats
Player to watch:
Peter Hooley: Kristian Doolittle, Perth Wildcats
Brad Rosen: Torrey Craig, Sydney Kings
Damon Lowery: Kendric Davis, Sydney Kings
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