With another Super Saturday nearly upon us, the seasons of two finals hopefuls in Fremantle and Melbourne hang in the balance — albeit to differing degrees.
The Dockers will be content with their start to 2025, without being overly thrilled. Three wins on the trot will do good things for their confidence, but a Round 1 thumping at the hands of Geelong followed by a three-point loss to Sydney had them short on confidence early.
So close was their loss to the Swans, that Fremantle fans will feel four points short of where they actually should be sitting, as Fremantle legend Matthew Pavlich told foxfooty.com.au.
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“They were terrible in that first match against Geelong, so take that as a mulligan or anomaly if you like. They probably should have beaten the Swans in Round 2 as well, so I think they should probably be 4-1… their last month has been really solid,” Pavlich said.
“I’m not sure they’ve put a full four quarters together as of yet, so that’s their challenge; to play a really aggressive stoppage, contest and forward half game. I haven’t seen them do that yet, but they’re certainly trending in the right direction.”
Melbourne’s 0-5 start under Simon Goodwin this season is very well-documented, and the league — let alone Demons fans — is crying out for a hard-hitting response. With many of the superstars still at the club from their 2021 premiership, their cavalry isn’t what’s being questioned. It’s both their application and game style.
But despite everything going against Melbourne right now and Fremantle’s strong record these last three weeks, Saturday’s date with the Demons still looms as a genuine danger game.
“Yeah (it is a danger game). After 25 years involved in the game, how many times have we seen a situation like this?” Pavlich continued.
“One team’s trending one way and going pretty well, while the other has had the week like (Melbourne) have had both externally and probably internally. A lot of tough questions and hard questions have been asked of them at 0-5, and that team has before come out and won.
“This will be a big test against Melbourne (with their) backs against the wall at their home ground the MCG — and proud premiers only four years ago. If Freo go in thinking it’s going to be an easy one, then they’ll be smacked around the ‘chops’ pretty quickly.”
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It’s exactly the kind of mental trap Longmuir will be drilling into his side to avoid — complacency, even against a winless team, could undo three weeks of progress in an instant.
The Demons have sporadically shown good football across the first five weeks of their season, but beyond Round 1, it’s been nowhere near enough to bring home the four points. Their three-point loss to the Giants was the closest they’ve come to being on the winners list, but that performance now feels like years ago.
Game plans, playing personnel and the longevity of premiership coach Simon Goodwin at Melbourne have all been brought into question, with an ultimatum on the club’s direction brewing, if it isn’t already there.
The Demons’ slide hasn’t just been on the scoreboard — it’s been in their ball movement, contested work, and ability to evolve a once-successful game plan.
“It’s a point in time where their list and game plan… if they stick with it any longer and it doesn’t work out well, then they will miss the opportunity to regenerate their game style and their list — I think it is now or never,” Pavlich explained.
“Tinkering and changing game plans on the run in-season just doesn’t work; you’ve got to do it in the pre-season. In-season, it’s just too hard. Doing it on the run is almost impossible.
“There’s some work to be done on their list, their team dynamics, their culture, and clearly on their game plan.”
Goodwin’s side will go into this clash with considerably more AFL exposure than their opponents, with Melbourne averaging an extra 30 games of experience per player. Additionally, they have six players who have played more games at the top level than Fremantle’s most experienced player Jaeger O’Meara (190 games).
It’s an age advantage that hasn’t paid dividends so far in 2025 for the red and blue, but on the contrary, the inexperience of Justin Longmuir’s ‘Purple Haze’ has perhaps flown under the radar.
“Fremantle are still a young team, it’s a general misconception. They’re still a very, very young list. In fact, across the first four or five weeks this year, they’ve been one of the youngest teams in the league,” Pavlich told foxfooty.com.au.
“They have to get it done, because internally they’ve got high expectations of themselves. Even leading into the season, they’ve said that they’ve never been more ready to challenge. Well, this group’s only played one final series, so you know, talk is cheap — they’ve got to get it done.”
The Western Bulldogs’ Sam Darcy and Adelaide’s Riley Thilthorpe have rightfully been given their flowers so far this season in what has been a breakout year for the tall forward duo. A third player cut from the same cloth with less media coverage though is Josh Treacy, who last week kicked six goals in an ultra-dominant display in the Barossa Valley.
After kicking 45 goals last year and currently tying with Gold Coast’s Ben King for the Coleman Medal at the start of Round 6, the sixth pick from 2021’s Rookie Draft will keep the hands of Steven May and Tom McDonald very full at the MCG.
The aforementioned match-up shapes as a pivotal duel. If Treacy can hold his own or even get on top, it tilts the scales drastically in Fremantle’s favour. But if May shuts him down, the Dockers’ forward structure could wobble as Jye Amiss works to find his form of years gone by, without Voss there as a foil.
“I love watching him play. He’s intimidating, he plays with presence both offensively in terms of his leading patterns, and also his chase-down tackles for a key forward is elite,” explained Pavlich.
“He and Ben King probably go under the radar a little bit as key forwards through the competition that potentially don’t get the recognition (they deserve) … but teams that play against them absolutely recognise how lethal and important they are.”
As one key forward prepares to assert himself on the hallowed sporting turf, another will be watching from the sidelines.
Forward-ruck Patrick Voss was unsuccessful in his appeal to have a three-match suspension reduced, after clumsily striking Richmond’s Nick Vlastuin late last Sunday to leave the defender bleeding heavily from his nose.
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It leaves a larger rucking burden on Sean Darcy, who only last weekend came back from a considerable stint on the sidelines with an ongoing knee injury. The Dockers opted not to bring in reserve ruck Liam Reidy, and are instead set to play Oscar McDonald for his second game at his third AFL club.
Voss’ absence won’t grab the headlines as much as the likes of a Marcus Bontempelli or Nick Daicos, but the implications it will have are of great significance structurally for the away side that have been out of Western Australia for over a week now.
“Even the seven or eight minutes a quarter that Voss could relieve Sean Darcy in game two (back from injury) is huge. Darcy’s obviously still building his fitness and his form back up, so it’s a huge out,” Pavlich noted.
“It’s a costly one for Freo’s line-up, because he competes really well in the forward line and adds another threat to Treacy and (Jye) Amiss.
“They’ve also been on the road now for a little while now; is that a good thing, or a bad thing? Sometimes teams say that’s a great thing, other times it can that cause that accumulative fatigue of being in hotel rooms and not in your normal surroundings … there’s a few question marks for them leading into this one.”
Fremantle have had the wood over the Demons in recent times, having won their last three meetings — and by extension, four of their last five. On the flip side, Melbourne have lost their last five matches at the MCG, as well as 10 of their last 11 matches in general.
If the Dockers are serious about rising into the contender conversation, these are the danger games they simply can’t let slip. But for Melbourne — battered, questioned and cornered — this could be the moment that defines their season. One club is chasing belief, the other is clinging onto it. And by Saturday evening, we’ll know who blinked first.
The first bounce is at 1:20pm local time, with Fox Footy’s Super Saturday Live coverage beginning at midday AEST.
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