The Panthers are staring down the barrel of a statistical anomaly that could end their bid for five premierships in-a-row, with the full toll of their success being laid bare.
Ivan Cleary’s men have began the 2025 season with only one win from five games, which is their worst start to an NRL campaign since 2013.
To make matters worse, should they lose to the Dolphins on Thursday night, they face an uphill battle to compete for the title and complete a historic five-peat.
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“No side has ever gone 1-5 and gone on to win the premiership, that’s dating all the way back to 1908… they need to find some mojo,” Fox League’s James Hooper said on NRL360 on Wednesday night.
The Panthers have been favourites in losses to the Roosters, Rabbitohs and most recently the Cowboys who were able to stave off Penrith’s attack to secure a tight 22-18 victory.
While Cleary’s men still have several elite players in their squad, the full scope of the talent they’ve lost has left them exposed.
A team of players who have departed the foot of the mountain during their premiership-winning seasons shapes as an incredibly competitive NRL side.
Most recently, Jarome Luai and James Fisher-Harris departed for the Tigers and Warriors respectively ahead of the 2025 season.
While names like Stephen Crichton, Matt Burton, Spencer Leniu, Viliame Kikau and J’maine Hopgood have enjoyed success as their new clubs.
“Look at the side they’ve lost over the years… given the circumstances, and this gets bigger every year because they’ve had to continue to cut players for salary cap reasons,” NRL360 host Braith Anasta said.
“It’s just like, finally it has taken its toll.”
For The Daily Telegraph’s Michael Carayannis, any team that loses that amount of talent, especially in key positions, would struggle to maintain their form.
“It’s understandable, they’ve been up for so long. With all those players there, they had a safety blanket,” Carayannis said.
”If Nathan was missing, they had a guy called Jarome Luai who could run the show and take the pressure off the inexperienced half, I think that’s been the biggest issue.
“You look at the way they’ve lost games this year, they haven’t been able to chase down points. They haven’t had to chase down as many points as they had in previous years.
“Even when they weren’t at their best, they were able to find a way.”
Hooper was of the belief that side could beat the Panthers and rival NRL clubs, who have been slowly recruiting Penrith’s best talent.
“If you line that side of the exiles up against this current side, I think there’s an argument the blokes who have walked out the door win that game,” Hooper said.
“And it’s not just the exodus at NRL level, it’s the tiers below as well… rival sides have been like vultures just picking the absolute elite talent out of the Penrith nursery.
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“Everybody knows they have the biggest and the best and it feels as though this year is the year it has caught up with them. Go back to 2022, they won every grade.”
The Panthers have also had stars playing their final seasons under Ivan Cleary, with the NRL’s contracting system often seeing players signing for rivals a year before landing at their new clubs.
Jarome Luai, for example, played a full season in Penrith knowing his time was set to come to an end at the conclusion of their 2024 campaign.
This season, however, the Panthers don’t have any big-name stars confirmed to be departing which could be contributing to their lacklustre 2025 performances.
“If you look at the guys that left, majority had their best seasons in the final year. They were able to lift knowing there was an end point for them,” Carayannis said.
“They don’t really have that this year, because the nucleus of the side is contracted for this year and beyond.”
Elsewhere, rising star Blaize Talagi is set to make his first starting appearance for the Panthers after making a shock cross-town switch in the off-season.
During his time at the Eels, the 20-year-old played across the backline, but he was tipped to succeed Luai and join Cleary as Penrith’s halves pairing.
Jack Cole got the nod to start the season, and the Panthers coach gave nothing away when asked why Talagi was placed on ice in reserve grade to start the season.
“There’s reasons for everything we do, I would say it’s exciting. We have a lot of hope for Blaize, very talented… but it’s exciting for our team,” Cleary said to reporters.
Talagi played off the bench against the Storm, but after an early injury to Cleary he was spearheaded into the halves, delivering an impressive performance.
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Cole also suffered a head knock in Round 5, which has paved the way for Talagi to partner the superstar halfback for the first time.
“It was a surprise after that performance, because you thought he’d shown enough to be that potential halves partner going forward for Nathan Cleary,” Carayannis said.
“Speaking to people in and round Penrith, he had a delayed pre-season coming back from a shoulder injury. They just thought that maybe the footy educated wasn’t up to scratch.
“An understanding of the way that Penrith wanted to play, because they play the same structures in reserve grade it was best case for him to go down and learn instead of being thrown into the deep end.”
“The ability to get him out of the spotlight to allow him to learn his game a little bit more, he’s still a kid.”
Anasta, meanwhile, urged Cleary to give the rising star further opportunities.
“I think the best way to learn is in first grade, but also he’s got X-factor. He’s got Cleary, Yeo and Edwards in the spine with him,” Anasta said.
“He doesn’t have all the pressure on him, he has actually got less pressure with those around him. He can make his mistakes and learn from them.”
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