We’re well and truly at the business end of the competition, with just two rounds remaining before the finals begin.
Even so close to the finals, there are a stack of crucial games in the penultimate round, with all eight games carrying some sort of top eight implications.
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Ahead of a blockbuster round of games in Round 26, foxsports.com.au have dived into some of the key storylines of the upcoming weekend.
THE PLAYER MOST IMPORTANT TO CANBERRA’S TITLE CHANCES
In a season full of them, the highlight of the Raiders’ stunning season was last Friday’s epic golden point win against Penrith.
Ethan Strange was the superstar, scoring a try, and setting two up, including the full-field game-winner after running down the sideline before finding Kaeo Weekes on the inside.
Strange will be so important to Canberra’s premiership winning hopes.
However, according to one Hall-of-Fame halfback, it will the Raiders’ veteran No. 7 that will be most key if this side is to win the comp.
“The Raiders have Tapine, Horsburgh, Papalii, Timoko, Strange, Weekes but I think off the back of that game, I believe Jamal Fogarty is the key to Canberra’s success,” Cooper Cronk said.
“His kicking game is rock solid. He can turn an OK set into a really good one, but his key part is knowing when to pass the ball and who to pass it to.”
The Raiders have a top two position locked up but despite this, there won’t be any mass-resting (see below). Coach Ricky Stuart wants to ensure this team maintains their momentum through to the finals.
Their next assignment is the Tigers at home. Depending on what happens Friday night between the Storm and Roosters, the Raiders can lock up the minor premiership if they beat the Tigers on Saturday.
Back to Fogarty, who at 31 years old is playing some of the best footy of his career.
Cronk noted a couple of times during the Penrith win that Fogarty made the wrong pass close to the line but when the game was on the line, the halfback delivered when he needed to.
Cronk also compared the Raiders’ style to the Panthers’ all-conquering set up of the past four seasons.
Canberra’s 73rd minute try through Strange was the game-tying four pointer. It was set up when Fogarty gave off a short ball to a rampaging Strange who ran a smart line off a set play.
“I think he played too many short passes against Penrith. He may have been setting up the game but in some of these situations, you get the ball to Ethan Strange. He’s so dynamic,” Cronk said.
“When the game was on the line, he gets the ball to Strange on two occasions, setting up two tries.
“You don’t give it to him Strange or Weekes every time, I’m just saying Fogarty’s decisions in September will be key to whether they win the premiership.
“If he gets it right and gets the ball to Strange and Weekes at the right time, Timoko and that will score. If he plays too many short passes, they probably miss their chance.
“They run a similar system to Penrith. Strange is on the left, Weekes on the right and Jamal is being the guy playing both sides of the ruck so his decision making of when to pass and when not too will be key.”
Matty Johns added that for all the talent and speed on the park, Fogarty is the one “steering the wheel”.
“You’ve got Kaeo Weekes, Ethan Strange but the steady man is the most important,” Johns said.
SILVER LINING IN DOGS’ LAST START DEFEAT AS PREMIERSHIP FLAME STILL BURNS
Matty Johns believes the Bulldogs are still a premiership threat despite suffering three losses from their last four games.
Johns was impressed with what he saw from Canterbury in their 20-14 loss to the Storm in Round 25.
The Bulldogs had a sluggish start and trailed 12-0 at halftime, but recovered to win the second half 14-8.
“I actually really liked what I saw in the Dogs’ performance, from what they found in the second half,” Johns said on Matty and Cronk.
“Their second half, they found their formula. They had far less emphasis on trying to force the football and force their attack, and they just poured their energy into their defence.
“And I thought they looked very, very good. They were unlucky not to pinch (the win).”
Cooper Cronk agreed with Johns, but felt it was vital the Bulldogs win the ruck if they’re going to contend for the premiership.
“I think the Dogs are still a threat. I agree with you, On their day, they can get it done,” Cronk added.
“But over the last month I think there’s a key part of the game that’s becoming obvious. If the Dogs do it well and they win this area, they’ll win, if they lose it, they’ll lose, it’s ruck speed.
“Their smaller middle forwards are their strength and their weakness.
“If they get slow play the ball, Kurt Mann, (Bailey) Hayward, (Josh) Curran, they’re going to struggle running into Payne Haas, Moses Leota, the Roosters pack, right?
“But if they get ruck speed with forward momentum, the way they shift the ball and their footwork, will put those bigger forward packs under threat.
“So I feel like I’ve learned a lot about the Dogs. If they win the ruck more than not, I think they can win the comp.
“If they play off the slow play the ball, I don’t know their smaller bodies can get the forward momentum that their spine are going to need to make good decisions.”
Johns said the Bulldogs’ defence in the second half reminded him of the Storm’s defence back in the 2000s, when Cronk played for them.
“Watching them defend in the second half, it was a rushing, swarming defence,” Johns said.
“It reminded me so much of (the Storm) in 2006, 2007, 2008, those years. And the fact that you didn’t have as big a pack as a lot of the other sides.
“You were like a pack of hyenas, defended like hyenas, a lot of people in tackles.
“And the second half, that’s how the Dogs defended.”
Cronk felt that Ciraldo would have read the riot act to his team at halftime.
“It was almost like Ciraldo gave them a rocket, and said, we’re not doing the Bulldogs style of football,” Cronk said.
“Go out there and defend.”
WILL MASS RESTINGS END UP BENEFITTING PANTHERS AND STORM?
After their top four hopes were dashed, it was anticipated that the Panthers would rest at least some of their stars for this weekend’s clash against the Bulldogs.
However, it would have been hard to imagine what the actual extent of the mass-resting was going to be.
Instead of just a handful of players being left out this weekend, coach Ivan Cleary has rested a whopping 16 (!) players.
The tactic to give his players a bit of a break right before the finals has been a ploy which has held the Panthers in good stead during their four-year premiership reign.
However, unveiling a team with 16 changes is certainly breaking new ground.
Panthers coach Ivan Cleary explained the reasoning behind the drastic decision.
“Every decision that I kind of make in my job, you know, has a lot of different ramifications,” Cleary said.
“They’re not easy, but some come clearer than others, and this one was fairly clear.
“We just decided that, you know, if we’re going to rest a number of them, we might as well just keep going
“We honestly just thought, as I said, a lot of parts to this decision that I’m not going to go through today, but it just seemed like the right one. So I guess time will tell.”
Reaction to the Panthers’ controversial call has been mixed.
Veteran journalist Phil Rothfield labelled it an “absolute disgrace but NRL360 host Braith Anasta called it “extremely smart”.
Foxsports.com.au’s Paul Crawley didn’t have a problem with it either.
“They’re not breaking any rules,” Crawley said.
“The Panthers in the last two weeks, despite going down, have pushed the two leading contenders (the Storm and Raiders) right to the wire.
“They know regardless of where they finish, they’ve got the firepower if they’re fresh to win the comp’.”
Given Penrith’s decision to rest 16 players, the Storm’s call to leave out four of their stars this weekend has slipped under the radar.
Melbourne are guaranteed to finish in the top two with the Raiders although the order has yet to be determined.
With a home qualifying final locked in, coach Craig Bellamy has rested Eli Katoa, Nick Meaney, Josh King and Xavier Coates.
PANTHERS’ RESTING OF PLAYERS PUTS DOGS IN NO-WIN SCENARIO
Reporter David Riccio and commentator Dan Ginnane both believe the Panthers’ decision to rest 16 players is far from ideal for their opponents the Bulldogs.
While the Bulldogs’ chances of securing a victory are now significantly increased, and it’s a win that would secure their first top four finish since 2012, there are concerns Canterbury are now in a scenario where they otherwise have nothing to gain against Penrith tonight at Accor Stadium.
“I will ask you this, fellas,” Riccio said on NRL 360 on Wednesday night.
“We just touched on the 16 resting players.
“What impact do you think it has on the Bulldogs?
“As far as my point of view is, I don’t think they’d be happy at all.”
Ginnane agreed with Riccio.
“They’ve got nothing to gain,” Ginnane added.
“Could you imagine if it’s 6-all at half-time?
“Canterbury have got nothing to gain now.
“If they win by 60, they’re supposed to.
“But if it’s close, all of a sudden they’re going to be under the pump.”
The Panthers are now guaranteed to finish in the top eight, with the Dolphins, in ninth spot, five competition points behind them with only two rounds remaining.
COWBOYS OUT TO RUIN BRONCOS’ TOP FOUR HOPES AS EPIC RIVALRY RESUMES
The next chapter in Queensland’s most storied NRL rivalry will resume on Saturday night when the Cowboys host the Broncos.
This rivalry has been littered with epic encounters and memorable moments since the Cowboys entered the competition in 1995, none more memorable in the 2015 decider when North Queensland downed big brother in a golden point thriller.
While both teams were near the peak of their powers in that October night nearly 10 years ago, as a rule, no matter where each team is on the ladder, this match up is almost always must-watch television.
This season, the Cowboys are out of the running while the Broncos sit in 5th, just one win outside of the eight.
Wouldn’t little brother just love to play finals spoiler.
In what is their final game of the season (Rd 27 bye), the Cowboys will want to end a disappointing 2025 campaign on a high in front of a packed stadium.
On form, the Broncos deserve to be favourites, but a slip up in Townsville could really put a dent in their premiership aspirations.
Not only will their top four chances evaporate but given they take on Melbourne next week, two losses to end the season could mean they drop out of a home elimination final spot.
Brisbane have been without star halves Ezra Mam and Adam Reynolds for their last two games, but it hasn’t mattered too much so far, with Ben Hunt leading the Broncos to two impressive wins over the Knights or Dolphins.
What isn’t known is if the Broncos are able to maintain this form and prove to be a genuine title threat without Reynolds and Mam.
One thing is for sure though. Saturday night’s clash is sure to be a doozy.
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