Olympics conundrum, injury hell could make or break Socceroos’ Asian Cup dream: State of play

Socceroos coach Graham Arnold has a major headache as he prepares to name his 26-man squad for January’s Asian Cup.

While injuries to key veterans like Mat Ryan and Mathew Leckie have thrown a spanner in the works and could require a couple of risky gambles, there’s a bigger problem facing Arnold as he eyes a first title since the Socceroos’ maiden triumph in 2015.

Another crucial tournament looms just a couple of months after the Asian Cup, when the Olyroos compete in the under-23 Asian Cup in Qatar. That tournament doubles as the qualification path to the Paris Olympics (also an U-23 tournament), with the top three teams Asian directly qualifying and the fourth-placed team heading to a playoff against African nation Guinea.

Stumped for gift ideas? This festive season, give the gift that keeps on giving. Gift a Kayo subscription from just $25 a month!

But, while clubs are forced to release players to play for the senior national team, such as for January’s Asian Cup, the same rules don’t apply to the under-23s.

Many clubs would be understandably unhappy to lose young stars for up to six weeks in January-February and then for around a month in April-May – which is a crucial late-season period for many competitions around the world. And even though clubs are technically forced to release players to play for the senior team – the Socceroos – it’s a poorly-kept secret in world football that many clubs pressure players to reject international call-ups.

Arnold has a difficult balancing act – picking the best squad possible while not jeopardising the needs of the Olyroos led by coach Tony Vidmar, and all while trying to keep the clubs (relatively) happy.

Choosing not to call up a young player now would logically mean a club would be more likely to release them for the U-23 tournament.

Given that Arnold believes the Olympics are highly valuable for a player’s development – so much so that he even took over the Olyroos and guided them to the Tokyo Olympics while still in charge of the Socceroos – Arnold is expected to help ensure Vidmar has the best players at his disposal in April.

But some clubs might still choose to not release a player for the Olyroos even if they are omitted from this tournament – again, it’s somewhat understandable given the Olympic qualifiers (the Asian U-23 Cup) takes place in that crucial April-May period.

But other under-23 players are simply so talented or in such hot form that Arnold could (or should) select them in his Socceroos squad, consequences be damned.

As many as ten under-23 players would have been in contention to feature in the Socceroos side this time around – especially given that the Asian Cup has just changed the squad rules to allow 26-player squads instead of the usual 23.

Two youngsters – Jordan Bos and Alessandro Circati – were in last month’s squad for the World Cup qualifiers against Bangladesh and Palestine.

Bos is the long-term future for the Socceroos at left-back and is likely to be selected alongside Aziz Behich. He’s an example of a player that is so valuable to the Socceroos now that Arnold would not want to make the sacrifice of not selecting him for the tournament – even if that sacrifice would convince Bos’s Belgian club Westerlo to release him for the Olyroos.

Of course, it is just as likely that Westerlo would refuse an U-23 call-up for Bos, regardless of whether or not he goes to the Asian Cup with the senior team. But the situation in Bos’s case is simple – and since he’s just-about nailed on as the number one Socceroo at the position, selecting him won’t mean the youngster is attending the tournament only to sit on the sidelines.

Circati, meanwhile is behind Harry Souttar and Kye Rowles in the centre-back pecking order, but is playing regularly in the Championship and would be an obvious pick for the squad if he wasn’t under 23. Given there are other strong options available, like Cameron Burgess, the versatile Thomas Deng, or even Alex Grant or Curtis Good, Circati could miss out – but that would not be based on form.

Six more U-23s have been part of Socceroos camps this year. That includes midfielders Alex Robertson and Patrick Yazbek, and forwards Mohamed Toure, Marco Tilio, Garang Kuol and Nestory Irankunda (the latter as a train-on player).

Of those players, Robertson is in such sensational form for Portsmouth in League One that Arnold will be very tempted to select him.

But Portsmouth would be loathe to lose him for up to six weeks – or as many as eight games – in January. Then again, they probably would reject an U-23 call-up come April-May.

Besides, there are plenty of other midfielders in form and further up the pecking order. Jackson Irvine, Keanu Baccus and Connor Metcalfe have formed a potent combination in the centre of the park and look set to reprise that trio in the Cup.

Perhaps it would be better for Robertson and his career to play eight games at club level rather than fight for minutes at the Asian Cup?

These are the kind of brutally difficult selection decisions that Arnold must make.

Tilio, Toure and Kuol are each struggling for game-time at club level, while 17-year-old Irankunda is probably not ready for the senior team. But Tilio is the most experienced at the Socceroos level and could benefit from (any) match minutes as he looks to convince his Celtic coach to give him a shot back at club level.

21-year-old Yazbek, like Irankunda, hasn’t debuted for the senior team yet and is probably too far down the pecking order to be selected this time around.

So among those who have been in Socceroos camp in 2023, Bos is by far the most likely to feature in the Asian Cup. Circati and Robertson would be in the mix based on form, but managing club relationships and doing what is best for their development could see them miss out.

But there are more young guns who haven’t yet been handed a senior call-up that could still be in the mix for selection.

That includes former Sydney FC and Western Sydney Wanderers midfielder Calem Nieuwenhof, currently in fine form for Heart of Midlothian in Scotland. That list also includes Nicholas Bilokapic, probably a little too far down the goalkeeping pecking order but one for the future if not selected now. No.1 keeper and Australia captain Mat Ryan is set to recover from a cheekbone fracture in time for the opening game of the tournament, if not perhaps the second game, while Joe Gauci of Adelaide looks to be the likely back-up.

Given a third-choice keeper is unlikely to earn any minutes at the tournament, Bilokapic is exactly the sort of player that Arnold would prefer stays at his club (League One team Peterborough United) and gets regular minutes to continue his development. Fingers crossed, though, that Peterborough allows their young gloveman to play for the U-23s.

The list of injured players throws up major headaches. Leckie has experienced a tricky run of injuries which have prevented him from playing a string of consecutive games at any point in the last six months. And given the squad assembles for the tournament on the first of January, it might come too soon for the Melbourne City attacker.

Awer Mabil, Gianni Stensness, Nicholas d’Agostino, and Mohamed Toure are all set to miss out with injury, as are Brandon Borrello and Ryan Strain. Striker Jamie Maclaren has been managing an ongoing foot injury, while Riley McGree has only just returned to training. Denis Genreau is also battling a long-term groin injury and has been struggling for game-time.

Plenty of other players are struggling with a lack of game time or are frozen out at their clubs – like Marco Tilio, Ajdin Hrustic and Fran Karacic. Oh, and Massimo Luongo is also out of the picture after retiring from international football to focus on his club’s bid for Premier League promotion.

With so many players unavailable or risky selections, Arnold faces a big headache – one that only adds to the headaches surrounding balancing the Socceroos’ immediate needs with those of the Olyroos.

The answer might just be more left-field selections – under 23s or not.

Arnold’s team announcement on Friday morning (set for 10am AEDT) could deliver plenty of shocks as he gambles on fitness, form, and with one eye firmly on the future of his team when it comes to the Paris Olympics and the 2026 World Cup.