Oscar Piastri is the favourite to win the 2026 world championship, according to Sky Sports commentator David Croft.
Piastri led last year’s title race for 15 rounds, more than any other driver, but was overhauled by teammate Lando Norris after a poor run of form and some bad luck during the America’s leg of the season.
Norris converted his lead into the title at the final race in Abu Dhabi, defeating Max Verstappen by two points.
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Piastri slipped to third, 13 points adrift. It was the closest any Australian has come to the Formula 1 world championship since Alan Jones claimed the title in 1980.
Despite failing to turn what was at one stage a 34-point lead into the championship, Piastri’s trajectory of improvement in just his third Formula 1 campaign was immensely impressive, his title challenge coming years ahead of schedule.
Speaking at Kayo Sports motorsport season launch in Melbourne ahead of this weekend’s Australian Grand Prix, Croft said that trajectory made him favourite for the championship.
“If you’re going to press me, Oscar is the guy that I think will be a world champion at the end of this year because of the way that he’s improved in the past and because of the way he ran Lando, who’s had a few more seasons, so close last year,” he said.
“Last year wasn’t great in terms of that run of six races, from Baku onwards. He will have learned how to adapt to a lower grip track that doesn’t necessarily suit his driving style to come away with better results for this year.
“I’m sure he has left no stone unturned in finding ways to improve during the course of this winter.
“[Piastri] is a world champion in the making. He has all the attributes to be a fine world champion and has displayed in his second and third seasons an ability to learn and improve from his previous seasons.”
He also expected McLaren to be stronger in Melbourne than testing suggested.
“It’s a power circuit, and Ferrari seems to have a smaller turbo then other cars, and that might not help them so much at a power circuit,” he explained. “I think it’s Mercedes-McLaren-Red Bull, probably in that order.
“But McLaren have got the new-spec engine that they didn’t have it testing, so they might be on par with, if not better than, Mercedes.”
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But Croft expected the title to be closely run between most of the frontrunning drivers, with four teams clear at the head of the field after preseason testing.
“Realistically are six that could do this,” he said.
“I’ve got six [favourites], to be honest, because I think the top four teams — Mercedes, McLaren, Ferrari and Red Bull in that order coming out of testing — have six drivers within those teams that realistically have an opportunity to become championship,” he said.
“Max Verstappen you can’t discount. Look at the way he stormed back last year — one of the great recovery half-seasons from Max Verstappen and from Red Bull.
“George Russell from Mercedes is a world champion in the making and has looked like that for years but has never had the car. This year he might just have that.
“Lewis Hamilton, who has won eight — sorry, seven — world titles during his career. It should be eight. One day I’d love to see it become eight. He deserves to have eight. He’s the greatest we’ve ever seen.
“Charles Leclerc. Ferrari start on much better footing this year than they have in recent years.
“And Lando Norris, the current world champion with the number one on his car and that pressure of expectation off his shoulders, but a new pressure comes his way now as a defending champion.”
Development, though, is expected to be ferocious this year, the first under new regulations, which could see momentum twist and turn before a champion is decided late in the season.
“It’s going to be a really exciting season,” he said. “One team might start better than the others. Others will then catch up.
“I think we’re going to go all the way to the final couple of rounds before we find a champion. “Don’t ask me who that champion is going to be, because I’m really do not know.”
The only clear outcome from this weekend’s Australian Grand Prix, according to Croft, is disappointment for Aston Martin.
“If you bought a green shirt to support Aston Martin, you’d better be at the start, because they might not be there at the finish,” he said. “They’ve had an absolutely horrendous [off-season].
“I say that with no pleasure whatsoever. Lawrence Stroll has poured his heart and soul and some of his wallet into that project.
“With Adrian Newey and Honda, they should be doing better, but they are in a world of pain on that one, and that’s not great.”
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