Premier, Norm Smith Medal and first goal: 38 Fox Footy pundits deliver ultimate GF Crystal Ball

Arguably the two best and most bankable teams from the home and away season will collide on Saturday for the 2025 AFL Grand Final, with Geelong taking on Brisbane at the MCG.

The match will decide the greatest club of the past 25 years, as both the Cats and Lions have won a league-high four premierships each since 2000.

We’ve surveyed an array of Fox Footy pundits ahead of the game — and when it comes to tipping the winner, the Cats have the edge.

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Of the 38 pundits surveyed, 26 tipped Geelong to win the flag — including dual premiership Kangaroo David King.
“A bulletproof game plan with great health … against a team needing to find six goals, combined with concerns over fitness concerns over Lachie Neale and Jarrod Berry,” King told foxfooty.com.au.

Five-time premiership Hawk Dermott Brereton said he believed the Cats would win comfortably.

“The Cats have had a beautiful ‘inside the rail’ run up to the Grand Final. Whereas Brisbane’s last six games have been against top-eight teams,” Brereton told foxfooty.com.au.

“They’ve been nothing short of admirable and heroic, but the season might just go one week too long.”

Triple All-Australian Nick Dal Santo added: “They (the Cats) don’t make many mistakes and rare play below their best. Highly reliable and predictable.”

But for triple premiership Lion Jonathan Brown, he’ll be hoping to present the cup to Chris Fagan, Harris Andrews and Lachie Neale on the dais.

“The best Grand Final I’ve ever been to is 2023 — and I think this one could get there again in terms of how close it’ll be,” Brown told foxfooty.com.au.

“Geelong are such a great and well-coached side, obviously ‘Scotty’ is a good mate. But I’ve got to go with my heart.”

As well as their premiership prediction, Fox Footy experts also provided their Norm Smith Medal and first goalkicker tips — and there was a clear BOG standout.

Eleven tipsters predicted Geelong star Max Holmes to claim the North Smith Medal — three years after he heartbreakingly missed out on the Cats’ 2022 premiership triumph due to injury.

Geelong skipper Patrick Dangerfield, who played one of the great finals games last weekend against Hawthorn, was also a popular Norm Smith tip (6).

Fox Footy commentator Corbin Middlemas and triple premiership Lion Alastair Lynch both tipped Will Ashcroft to win back-to-back Norm Smith Medals — a feat only achieved previously by Adelaide legend Andrew McLeod (1997/98) and Richmond legend Dustin Martin (2019/20).

Brown is predicting Dayne Zorko to win best on ground honours.

“I played with ‘Tink’, he’s a beauty,” Brown said of Zorko.

“He’s been a legend of the club — he could win another best and fairest this year, which would make it six — and he can fire those bullets.

“If Geelong are slightly off, he’ll cut them to ribbons.”

Cats duo Jeremy Cameron and Shaun Mannagh were the most popular first goalkicker selections.

See all 38 experts’ premier, Norm Smith Medal and first goalkicker tips — and the full final verdict — below.

AFL GRAND FINAL TIPS AND PREDICTIONS 2025

Premiership winner

26 (of 38) — Geelong Cats

12 — Brisbane Lions

Norm Smith Medallist

11 — Max Holmes (Geelong Cats)

6 — Patrick Dangerfield (Geelong Cats)

3 — Will Ashcroft (Brisbane Lions)

2 — Dayne Zorko (Brisbane Lions), Harris Andrews (Brisbane Lions), Gryan Miers (Geelong Cats), Hugh McCluggage (Brisbane Lions), Mark Blicavs (Geelong Cats), Zac Bailey (Brisbane Lions), Jeremy Cameron (Geelong Cats)

1 — Bailey Smith (Geelong Cats), Darcy Wilmot (Brisbane Lions), Ollie Dempsey (Geelong Cats), Shaun Mannagh (Geelong Cats)

First goalkicker

9 — Shaun Mannagh (Geelong Cats)

7 — Jeremy Cameron (Geelong Cats)

5 — Tyson Stengle (Geelong Cats)

3 — Charlie Cameron (Brisbane Lions)

2 — Zac Bailey (Brisbane Lions), Kai Lohmann (Brisbane Lions), Logan Morris (Brisbane Lions), Ty Gallop (Brisbane Lions), Cameron Rayner (Brisbane Lions)

1 — Patrick Dangerfield (Geelong Cats), Callum Ah Chee (Brisbane Lions), Shannon Neale (Geelong Cats), Levi Ashcroft (Brisbane Lions)

JOSH BARNES (Midweek Tackle/Herald Sun)

Premiers: Geelong Cats by 15 points — “Tom Stewart aside, the Cats are cherry ripe and appear to be the team that is playing the best when it counts, which as modern history shows, is how you win premierships.”

Norm Smith Medal: Max Holmes (Geelong Cats)

First goalkicker: Tyson Stengle (Geelong Cats)

DYLAN BOLCH (foxfooty.com.au)

Premiers: Brisbane Lions by 8 points — “The Lions have big game players on every line and they’ve shown they are built for the September stage. The loss of Tom Stewart is huge for Geelong and I’m backing Brisbane’s young stars to continue their super seasons. Grand Finals ultimately come down to which team’s bottom six perform the best and I think the Lions are primed.”

Norm Smith Medal: Will Ashcroft (Brisbane Lions)

First goalkicker: Levi Ashcroft (Brisbane Lions)

DERMOTT BRERETON (Fox Footy analyst)

Premiers: Geelong by 39 points — “The Cats have had a beautiful ‘inside the rail’ run up to the Grand Final. Whereas Brisbane’s last six games have been against top-eight teams. They’ve been nothing short of admirable and heroic, but the season might just go one week too long.”

Norm Smith Medal: Jeremy Cameron (Geelong Cats)

First goalkicker: Tyson Stengle (Geelong Cats)

JONATHAN BROWN (Fox Footy analyst/On The Couch)

Premiers: Brisbane Lions by 5 points — “Geelong are such a great and well-coached side, obviously ‘Scotty’ is a good mate. But I’ve got to go with my heart.”

Norm Smith Medal: Dayne Zorko (Brisbane Lions)

First goalkicker: Charlie Cameron (Brisbane Lions)

NATHAN BUCKLEY (Fox Footy analyst/On The Couch)

Premiers: Geelong Cats by 6 points — “The edge in the clearance game will be the difference in a classic.”

Norm Smith Medal: Max Holmes (Geelong Cats)

First goalkicker: Tyson Stengle (Geelong Cats)

SHAUN BURGOYNE (Fox Footy analyst)

Premiers: Brisbane Lions by 8 points — “They’re full of momentum and have an even contribution across the whole team.”

Norm Smith Medal: Harris Andrews (Brisbane Lions)

First goalkicker: Zac Bailey (Brisbane Lions)

JAY CLARK (Herald Sun/First Crack/Super Saturday Live)

Premiers: Geelong Cats by 10 points — “The Cats are primed and will have too many winners in the front half for the young Lions.”

Norm Smith Medal: Gryan Miers (Geelong Cats)

First goalkicker: Jeremy Cameron (Geelong Cats)

BEN COTTON (foxfooty.com.au)

Premiers: Geelong by 24 points — “Chris Scott deserves another flag and his troops look primed to deliver one. The form team of September that’s hit their peak at the right time. Nothing, bar Tom Stewart’s setback, has gone wrong. Slightly worried about Brisbane’s bottom handful/relative inexperience.“

Norm Smith Medal: Shaun Mannagh (Geelong Cats)

First goalkicker: Shaun Mannagh (Geelong Cats)

NICK DAL SANTO (Fox Footy analyst)

Premiers: Geelong Cats by 32 points — “They don’t make many mistakes and rare play below their best. Highly reliable and predictable.”

Norm Smith Medal: Ollie Dempsey (Geelong Cats)

First goalkicker: Jeremy Cameron (Geelong Cats)

BEN DIXON (Fox Footy analyst/First Crack/Bounce)

Premiers: Brisbane Lions by 12 points — “They’ll be the aggressor for four quarters, so I think they can go back to back.”

Norm Smith Medal: Hugh McCluggage (Brisbane Lions)

First goalkicker: Patrick Dangerfield (Geelong Cats)

WILL FAULKNER (foxfooty.com.au)

Premiers: Geelong Cats by 14 points — “Have again timed their flag tilt to perfection and Brisbane’s missing personnel might be too much this time around.”

Norm Smith Medal: Max Holmes (Geelong Cats)

First goalkicker: Callum Ah Chee (Brisbane Lions)

TOM HAWKINS (Fox Footy analyst)

Premiers: Geelong Cats by 28 points

Norm Smith Medal: Mark Blicavs (Geelong Cats)

First goalkicker: Jeremy Cameron (Geelong Cats)

CATHERINE HEALEY (foxfooty.com.au)

Premiers: Geelong Cats by 15 points — “The Cats have so many smalls who can provide avenues to goal and nullify the impact of star Lion Harris Andrews.”

Norm Smith Medal: Patrick Dangerfield (Geelong Cats)

First goalkicker: Shaun Mannagh (Geelong Cats)

ANTHONY HUDSON (Fox Footy commentator)

Premiers: Geelong Cats by 5 points — “They’re at the peak of their form and should be less beaten up.”

Norm Smith Medal: Max Holmes (Geelong Cats)

First goalkicker: Kai Lohmann (Brisbane Lions)

BRAD JOHNSON (Fox Footy analyst)

Premiers: Geelong Cats by 15 points

Norm Smith Medal: Mark Blicavs (Geelong Cats)

First goalkicker: Logan Morris (Brisbane Lions)

DREW JONES (Fox Sports News/AFL Tonight)

Premiers: Geelong Cats by 25 points — “The Cats have the best coach, best forward and a rampaging Patrick Dangerfield. The brave Lions will fight hard, but will run out of puff late.”

Norm Smith Medal: Patrick Dangerfield (Geelong Cats)

First goalkicker: Shaun Mannagh (Geelong Cats)

SARAH JONES (Fox Footy presenter)

Premiers: Brisbane Lions by 15 points — “I think their best is still the best in the game. A team with plenty of heart, I think they’ll dig deep and go back to back!”

Norm Smith Medal: Hugh McCluggage (Brisbane Lions)

First goalkicker: Zac Bailey (Brisbane Lions)

JACK JOVANOVSKI (foxfooty.com.au)

Premiers: Brisbane Lions by 12 points — “Geelong’s dash, stout backline and potent attack are hard to overlook, but Brisbane’s counterpunch is where this will be won. The Lions are a top-three ball movement side, while the Cats have been leaky defending it. Dayne Zorko and Darcy Wilmot will be the keys.”

Norm Smith Medal: Dayne Zorko (Brisbane Lions)

First goalkicker: Ty Gallop (Brisbane Lions)

DAVID KING (Fox Footy analyst/First Crack)

Premiers: Geelong Cats by 30 points — “A bulletproof game plan with great health … against a team needing to find six goals, combined with concerns over fitness concerns over Lachie Neale and Jarrod Berry.”

Norm Smith Medal: Patrick Dangerfield (Geelong Cats) — “They owe him one from 2022.”

First goalkicker: Shaun Mannagh (Geelong Cats)

MAX LAUGHTON (foxfooty.com.au)

Premiers: Geelong Cats by 33 points — “It pains me as a perennially and obnoxiously negative Cats fan to have any confidence in them, and the Lions will be better than they were in the qualifying final. But too much is pointing Geelong’s way, outside of Tom Stewart’s absence. It’ll be anxiety-inducingly close until midway through the third when they’ll kick away.”

Norm Smith Medal: Max Holmes (Geelong Cats)

First goalkicker: Cameron Rayner (Brisbane Lions)

JORDAN LEWIS (Fox Footy analyst/On The Couch)

Premiers: Brisbane Lions by 9 points — “They would have learned some lessons from their last match against them.”

Norm Smith Medal: Harris Andrews (Brisbane Lions)

First goalkicker: Charlie Cameron (Brisbane Lions)

KATH LOUGHNAN (Fox Footy host/Super Saturday Live)

Premiers: Geelong Cats by 16 points — “I think the Cats repeat the dose from this year’s qualifying final win.”

Norm Smith Medal: Bailey Smith (Geelong Cats)

First goalkicker: Jeremy Cameron (Geelong Cats)

ALASTAIR LYNCH (Fox Footy analyst)

Premiers: Brisbane Lions by 7 points

Norm Smith Medal: Will Ashcroft (Brisbane Lions)

First goalkicker: Logan Morris (Brisbane Lions)

GARRY LYON (Fox Footy analyst/AFL 360)

Premiers: Geelong Cats by 14 points

Norm Smith Medal: Max Holmes (Geelong Cats)

First goalkicker: Shaun Mannagh (Geelong Cats)

CORBIN MIDDLEMAS (Fox Footy commentator/Midweek Tackle)

Premiers: Brisbane Lions by 23 points — “They’re a big moments team and their best has looked as good as any team across the season.”

Norm Smith Medal: Will Ashcroft (Brisbane Lions)

First goalkicker: Ty Gallop (Brisbane Lions)

CAMERON MOONEY (Fox Footy analyst/Bounce)

Premiers: Geelong Cats by 35 points — “They’ll hold Brisbane to less than 75 points.”

Norm Smith Medal: Max Holmes (Geelong Cats)

First goalkicker: Shaun Mannagh (Geelong Cats)

JON RALPH (Herald Sun/Midweek Tackle/On The Couch)

Premiers: Geelong Cats by 18 points — “The best in it, the least banged up of the two contenders, able to withstand momentum shifts in-game and stars on every line. Jezza and Danger ready to explode again.”

Norm Smith Medal: Max Holmes (Geelong Cats)

First goalkicker: Jeremy Cameron (Geelong Cats)

MARK RICCIUTO (Fox Footy analyst)

Premiers: Brisbane Lions by 8 points

Norm Smith Medal: Zac Bailey (Brisbane Lions)

First goalkicker: Cameron Raynor (Brisbane Lions)

JACK RIEWOLDT (Fox Footy analyst/On The Couch)

Premiers: Brisbane Lions by 2 points — “I just think they’ve learned from the qualifying final.”

Norm Smith Medal: Darcy Wilmot (Brisbane Lions)

First goalkicker: Jeremy Cameron (Geelong Cats)

DWAYNE RUSSELL (Fox Footy commentator)

Premiers: Geelong Cats by 12 points — “The Cats have the hardest forward line to stop in the league. Jeremy Cameron might just have the edge in goalkicking power.”

Norm Smith Medal: Jeremy Cameron (Geelong Cats)

First goalkicker: Shannon Neale (Geelong Cats)

RUBY SCHLEICHER (Fox Footy analyst/AFL Tonight)

Premiers: Geelong Cats by 9 points

Norm Smith Medal: Max Holmes (Geelong Cats)

First goalkicker: Charlie Cameron (Brisbane Lions)

WILL SCHOFIELD (Fox Footy analyst/AFL Tonight)

Premiers: Geelong Cats by 11 points — “They’ve been the most consistent team all season.”

Norm Smith Medal: Max Holmes (Geelong Cats)

First goalkicker: Shaun Mannagh (Geelong Cats)

KELLI UNDERWOOD (Fox Footy commentator)

Premiers: Brisbane Lions by 26 points — “More pressure on the more-fancied Cats and love Chris Fagan’s leadership style.”

Norm Smith Medal: Zac Bailey (Brisbane Lions)

First goalkicker: Shaun Mannagh (Geelong Cats)

COURTNEY WALSH (foxfooty.com.au)

Premiers: Geelong Cats by 15 points

Norm Smith Medal: Patrick Dangerfield (Geelong Cats)

First goalkicker: Tyson Stengle (Geelong Cats)

BEN WATERWORTH (foxfooty.com.au)

Premiers: Geelong Cats by 30 points — “The Cats ‘play the season’ better than any club in the competition and are primed to peak on Saturday. Expect them to set the tone with relentless pressure in the first half — which will dismantle Brisbane’s kick-mark game — and have too much firepower up forward for the Lions to stop.”

Norm Smith Medal: Gryan Miers (Geelong Cats)

First goalkicker: Shaun Mannagh (Geelong Cats)

GERARD WHATELEY (Fox Footy commentator/AFL 360)

Premiers: Geelong Cats by 16 points

Norm Smith Medal: Patrick Dangerfield (Geelong Cats)

First goalkicker: Kai Lohmann (Brisbane Lions)

LAUREN WOOD (Herald Sun/Midweek Tackle)

Premiers: Geelong Cats by 19 points — “The Cats added just the right amount of cream to what was already a top-echelon team and they are primed. Dangerfield in scary good form.”

Norm Smith Medal: Max Holmes (Geelong Cats)

First goalkicker: Jeremy Cameron (Geelong Cats)

DAVID ZITA (Fox Sports News/AFL Tonight)

Premiers: Geelong Cats by 25 points — “They haven’t done anything wrong on the field all year.”

Norm Smith Medal: Patrick Dangerfield (Geelong Cats)

First goalkicker: Tyson Stengle (Geelong Cats)