‘Ricky will be furious’: Glaring reason Raiders ‘don’t stack up’ brutally exposed

Canberra’s straight-sets NRL finals exit exposed the fact that they were only the sixth-best defensive side this season – which was rammed home by a moment against Cronulla that sparked their demise.

After a 32-12 loss to the Sharks in their elimination semi-final, the Raiders’ fatal flaws were dissected by the Fox League panel.

Here is why, having lost just three games in the regular season, they were sent packing from September with two defeats on the trot — becoming the first minor premiers in 16 years to suffer that fate.

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DEFENSIVE FRAILTIES

The Raiders entered the finals after conceding 506 points in the regular season; 21 per game. Of the top eight sides, they were only fractionally better than the fourth-placed Broncos (508) and eighth-placed Roosters (521), and nearly 100 points worse off than the benchmark Bulldogs (414) despite winning three more games than Canterbury.

Ricky Stuart’s side then leaked 29 points against Brisbane and 32 versus Cronulla when it mattered most.

And when the game was locked at 12-all early in the second half against the Sharks, Canberra coughed up a soft try to second-rower Billy Burns that triggered their doom. They went scoreless for the rest of the game, while the Sharks iced the result with further four-pointers to centre KL Iro and edge-forward Teig Wilton.

“I just feel that it was gone by their right-hand defence. They were lacking in confidence,” Roosters premiership second-rower Bryan Fletcher said, with Burns strolling through Zac Hosking and Jamal Fogarty for his decisive try, before the same players were beaten by a grubber from Wilton.

“The Sharks could smell blood in the water, they kept going at it. What typifies it, pretty much sums it up for me, they (Canberra) got back to 12-all, it’s in a semi-final, you’re at home, and Billy Burns scores a try (where) nothing is on. There is no decoy, it’s just hard running, and you’re in a semi-final and you let this happen.

“This pretty much sums it up, and Ricky will be furious. The players will be furious.”

Manly premiership five-eighth Kieran Foran added: “There’s been a disconnect on their right-side defence for some time now, and it really is between Fogarty and (Matt) Timoko there. They just tend to want to map everything, go into slide straight away.

“I don’t think they varied it up enough in terms of their jam defence and sliding defence. They always showed their hand early and the Sharks clearly did their homework and targeted that area.”

Champion Storm and Roosters halfback Cooper Cronk said that the Raiders’ defensive flaws came to a head under finals pressure.

“Ultimately, history shows that to win the comp you need to be one of the best defensive teams in the comp, and the Raiders just don’t stack up in the numbers when it comes to that,” Cronk said.

Canberra became the first minor premiers since the 2009 Dragons to make a straight-sets finals exit.

Penrith have been the best defensive side of the past five seasons and made the grand final every year, winning the last four premierships consecutively. The team that beat the Panthers in the 2020 grand final, Melbourne, was the second-best defensive side that season.

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LOSING CONFIDENCE, THEN STRANGE

Star five-eighth Ethan Strange was ruled out for Canberra on game day due to a severe bout of influenza A. With doubts already about how the Raiders would rebound from their golden point loss to Brisbane the previous weekend, it can’t have helped their mindset.

“Last week, that’s got to have taken (a toll), physically, emotionally, mentally. Then you lose Ethan Strange, who’s been close to their best player all year, the day of the game,” Bulldogs premiership playmaker Braith Anasta said.

“That’s got to have some input into that loss.”

Cronk believed the die was already cast from week one, adding: “I think it had a big input, I think it was a major reason why they weren’t able to progress to a prelim final.

“In our careers, you get to a final and you feel confident, you feel like you can do something … but then just something happens in a game that knocks your confidence around. Unless you’ve got experienced players to overcome that, it’s really hard for young guys to forget about it and move on and play their best football.

“I absolutely put down the loss tonight to what happened in week one. They, for me, to win the comp needed to win week one, get the weekend off, have that confidence, momentum.”

Fletcher said that the impact of last weekend was apparent.

“They were fatigued. The extra 15 minutes last week obviously emotionally and physically took its toll, because the Raiders, no other team had a better record in the second half coming home. And they were out on their feet.”

SPINE STARS STRIKE OUT

Fogarty had a tough night in his final game for the Raiders before moving to Manly, in a sad end to a terrific season for the veteran No.7.

“He has pressure on him coming into the game for key moments, big moments under pressure. But tonight, it wasn’t so much those moments, it was his execution in attack that let him down but also his reads in defence,” Anasta said.

Foran added: “He looked nervous. He kicked OK throughout the contest, I thought he nailed a few spiralling kicks, but ultimately what we spoke about at the start of the game was around his defence and his organisation.

“Without Strange there, he was gonna need to be the dominant playmaker and get them into positions on the field to get their attack on. I don’t think he did that well enough, and then ultimately I think on the flipside defensively, he missed the mark.”

Cronk said that hooker Tom Starling and fullback Kaeo Weekes had also delivered ordinary games at an inopportune time.

“When it came to attack, 12 points … they had 48 play-the-balls in the red zone (20m),” Cronk said.

“I thought Tom Starling didn’t help out too much, he was playing too many short passes. Yes, Corey Horsburgh scored that one try close to the ruck, but he just didn’t pick the right play at the right time.

“And I think Kaeo Weekes, in the biggest game, who has been brilliant this year, just needed to get off that right-hand side, move around the field, support on the inside of Jamal Fogarty and maybe something happens.

“We highlighted in them two in pre-game and ultimately, they weren’t able to get the job done.”

EXPECTATIONS DEFIED, BUT GLORY DENIED

Numerous pundits tipped Canberra for the wooden spoon before the season began and few had them in the top eight. They instead won the minor premiership and saw players like Strange and Weekes become genuine stars of the competition, while Joe Tapine led from the front and veteran prop Josh Papalii was so good that he will now play on next season.

“They have been the most consistent team, they deserve the minor premiership,” Cronk said.

“From when they won in Vegas (in Round 1) to when they beat Melbourne in Magic Round, they got out of the woods against the Sharks at home at GIO (Round 5), they beat Penrith at Mudgee in arguably the game of the decade (Round 25) … and just at the last moment, in front of their home fans, they couldn’t get through.

“But the best sign of a coach is that the majority of their players had career-best years, and you could mount a case that every one of the Raiders this year had career-best seasons; but they just weren’t able to capitalise on it.

“I think Ricky will get Coach of the Year (at the Dally M Awards), Ethan Strange, Tom Starling, there’ll be individual players for the Raiders who’ll get positional Players of the Year … but they just didn’t turn it into the grand final.”