Shock breakout stuns NBA; bombshell trade’s mega winner: Way-too-early predictions

It’s still only late November and less than a quarter way through the NBA season.

But what better time to make some (way-too-early) predictions for the major awards and season ahead? This includes a mix of overreacting to things we’ve seen so far this season along with general thoughts.

With that, below are foxsports.com.au’s way-too-early predictions for the NBA regular season awards, plus the Finals.

*All stats/numbers accurate ahead of Thursday’s games (AEDT).

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MVP – Nikoka Jokic (Denver Nuggets)

Running out of things to stay say about the Joker. Put simply, no other NBA player is on the same level as him. With Jamal Murray sidelined again, Jokic has had to take on another monster load for the 10-5 Nuggets this season. He’s averaged a career-best 27.4 points to go with 13.1 rebounds and 8.7 assists per game and continues to do things on the court we’ve never seen before from a player his size as an unstoppable juggernaut. In fact, his 32.84 Player Efficiency Rating (PER) is the second-best ever in NBA history – trailing only his own 32.85 PER from his second MVP season in 2021/22. Perhaps Jokic’s best quality if however how he makes the players around him better, which is the true testament of an MVP, while his improvement on the defensive end has made him an all-round package. Plus, now that Jokic is regarded as the consensus ‘best player in the world’, how many extra votes will he receive? Particularly after he led the Nuggets to last year’s championship in a season he was snubbed the NBA’s top individual honour in favour of Joel Embiid.

CLUTCH PLAYER OF THE YEAR – Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC Thunder)

Not far down the MVP ratings at this point. Gilgeous-Alexander has backed up his tremendous breakout 2022/23 season with another massive start to this campaign, leading the much-improved Thunder to a 11-4 start – the third-best record in the entire league. Of course, this is specifically an award about the best clutch player – so it’s a tough one to predict given it’s predicated on particular late-game moments. But in terms of which player we’d most want the ball in the hands of in such situations, you can’t go past Gilgeous-Alexander for his sheer efficiency on the offensive end in perhaps his greatest trait. This season he’s shot a career-best 53 per cent from the field with 1.4 triples (up from 9.9 last season) and 92.8 per cent from the line on 6.4 attempts (down on his ridiculously high 10.9 attempts last season). If he’s not scoring, he’s getting to the line and just never seems overawed by the big moments. Good luck stopping him from getting a bucket.

COACH OF THE YEAR – Mark Daigneault (OKC Thunder)

Continuing on from the Gilgeous-Alexander praise, the Thunder have been outstanding – and Daigneault deserves a ton of credit. The Coach of the Year Award usually goes to either the coach in charge of the outright best team or the coach leading a team well beyond expectations. Daigneault isn’t far off ticking both boxes right now, even though OKC was expected to take another leap. As mentioned, the Thunder’s 11-4 record is third-best in the entire NBA with a top seven offensive rating and top four defensive rating, while only Boston has a better overall net rating. Perhaps what’s most impressive is, outside of Gilgeous-Alexander (and now maybe Chet Homgren), the Thunder don’t have any clear-cut All-Stars and are still really young, while Josh Giddey and Jalen Williams have been a little up and down. It’s the Daigneault-led system that’s been so important, so it’s scary to think how good this team can be when it all comes together.

DEFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR – Rudy Gobert (Minnesota Timberwolves)

Time to give Gobert his flowers. For all the slack he copped last year and criticism of the mega haul the Timberwolves gave up to acquire him, the French centre and defensive beast is now delivering and then some. Any elite defence is built around its centre, and Minnesota has the No. 1 defensive rating this season led by Gobert, who’s averaged 11.8 rebounds and 2.2 blocks (ranked top four in the NBA in both categories) – well up on his 1.4 blocks last season. We’re seeing the Utah Gobert of old again in terms of the way he can impact games defensively when he’s on. His main rival right now would be Anthony Davis, but given Minnesota’s hot 11-3 start to the season, we’ve given Gobert the edge – and it’d be remiss to not to acknowledge the Wolves in some way!

MOST IMPROVED PLAYER OF THE YEAR – Tyrese Maxey (Philadelphia 76ers)

We’re seeing a superstar evolve before our very eyes. Even if he’s cooled off slightly from the first few weeks, Maxey has taken his game to insane new heights this season– and seemingly made the Sixers better post the James Harden trade – as the team’s new co-star alongside Joel Embiid. Maxey has posted career-highs across the board including 27 points per game, 3.4 triples, shooting 93 per cent from the free throw line, 4.7 rebounds and seven assists. A lot was made about Philadelphia not getting a star back in the Harden deal, but it was addition by subtraction and giving a clear runway for Maxey to be able to do what he’s doing that’s proven to be a master stroke. And they still have assets to recruit another star – though you’d think it’d now have to be someone who fits in as the third star in the pecking order given Maxey’s ascension. Toronto’s Scottie Barnes is also in the mix for Most Improved, while Houston’s Alperen Sengun is starting to mount his case.

ROOKIE OF THE YEAR – Chet Holmgren (OKC Thunder)

That’s right – not Wemby! It’s a clear two-horse race between Holmgren and Victor Wembnayma, but if you had to enter your ballot right now, you’d be picking the Thunder big man. After missing all of what would’ve been his rookie season due to a foot injury, Holmgren is making up for lost time in a massive way. He’s averaged 17 points per game, 1.6 threes, 7.8 rebounds and 2.2 blocks per contest and is currently posting 50-40-90 shooting splits (field goal, three-pointer and free throw percentage) – splits not achieved since 2019 and only nine other players have posted in NBA history – to emerge as OKC’s second star alongside Gilgeous-Alexander. It included a monster performance against Golden State (36 points, two triples, 10 rebounds, five assists) where Holmgren hit a huge three-pointer to force overtime. We knew Holmgren was going to be good and fill a key big man need on the Thunder’s roster … but this good? Better than Wembanyama good!? The fact he’s played such a big role on one of the top sides and has been so efficient is why we’ve tipped him (for now at least) over Wembanyama.

SIXTH MAN OF THE YEAR – Austin Reaves (LA Lakers)

The award that’s perhaps most up in the air right now with no clear standouts. But since Darvin Ham moved Austin Reaves to the bench against Phoenix earlier this month, the Lakers have gone 6-2 and he’s maintained solid production, averaging 13.7 points, 5.1 rebounds, 4.9 assists and 1.1 steals across the season. Even if Reaves hasn’t made the third-year leap some expected – particularly coming off a USA World Cup campaign – he’s still a valuable player able to impact games in multiple ways. And so extrapolating his stats – maybe with slightly improved scoring – and the Lakers’ uptick in form across a whole season and he’d likely be recognised as the league’s premier reserve. Of the other contenders, Dallas’ Tim Hardaway Jr. has enjoyed a hot start to the campaign and New York’s Immanuel Quickley has also been solid – but in a more crowded rotation – though Reaves, should he remain on the bench, might just have the clearest runway.

NBA FINALS – Boston Celtics defeat Denver Nuggets

To cap things off, we’ve given our predictions for the Finals. It’s hard to go past the Celtics right now with what they’re doing, They have the NBA’s best record at 12-3 (meaning they’d have home-court advantage), the No. 1 overall net rating, No. 2 defensive rating and sixth-best offensive rating. The additions of Kristaps Porzingis and Jrue Holiday have given Joe Mazulla’s team more versatility and overall starpower on the floor, and it’s going to take some sort of effort to take four games from this team in a seven-game series. Philadelphia has been phenomenal in its own right and Milwaukee is figuring things out with Damian Lillard, but the Celtics remain the side to beat in the East. Out West, perhaps only Nikola Jokic and the reigning champion Denver can stop the Celtics. Minnesota and OKC are dark horses too to reach the NBA’s grand stage – and don’t count out the Suns or Lakers – but the experience and chemistry of Mike Malone’s side sets it apart. Plus, the Nugs have the best player in the world. To go back-t0-back, however, they’ll need to go through the Celtics, who appear to be a different beast to any team last year.