Silver lining to Demon’s painful start; Djoker’s big three dilemma: Aus Open draw winners, losers

The 2024 Australian Open draw is out – and with it, some clear winners and losers.

So who could make a surprising run at Melbourne Park and how did the Aussies fare?

Foxsports.com.au breaks down the winners and losers from the draw.

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WINNERS

Alex de Minaur

Yes, despite copping a former world No.3 in the first round.

As the first Aussie man in the ATP top-10 in 18 years, the fair expectation for de Minaur is a fourth-round berth with a realistic shot at the quarters, and that’s what he’s got.

Facing powerful Canadian Milos Raonic in his opening match isn’t ideal but Raonic has played very little tennis over the last three years, spending 24 months away from the court rehabbing injuries before a stop-start return in late 2023. At his best, the former Melbourne Park semi-finalist is dangerous, but he’s far from his best right now, and de Minaur at his current level should clearly still win.

The second round against either Aussie wildcard Adam Walton or Italy’s world No.41 Matteo Arnaldi – something of a young star on the rise – will also see de Minaur favoured, and then his toughest third-round opponent would be No.18 seed Nicolas Jarry… who is 28 years old, yet has won just one match at the Australian Open, ever.

Again, winnable.

It was always going to get tougher in the fourth round, when de Minaur was guaranteed to be drawn against a No.5-No.8 seed, but getting No.5 Andrey Rublev isn’t as bad as it sounds; de Minaur is 3-2 all-time against Rublev, the pair splitting their two meetings on hard courts in 2023.

Again, winnable.

Then in the quarter-finals, de Minaur could face No.4 Jannik Sinner… and, look, he’s 0-6 all-time against Sinner, including a loss in the fourth round of the 2022 Australian Open. But it was either Sinner, Daniil Medvedev, Carlos Alcaraz or Novak Djokovic in this spot, so really, there were no good options. And you’re gonna have to beat a top-four player to win a grand slam.

Given the improvement de Minaur has shown over the Aussie summer so far, a semi-final berth – where he’d be likely to face Djokovic – is at least within the realms of possibility. And a quarter-final berth is entirely realistic. That’s a winner in our books.

The Aussie men

We haven’t looked through the history books (ie Wikipedia) to check the modern record for local men making the Australian Open second round… but we’re going to have to.

It’s an exciting time for men’s tennis down under with eight Aussies in the top 100, all earning direct entry into the tournament; wildcards plus potential qualifiers mean there’ll be at least 13 Aussie men (and probably more) in the first round.

At least two will make the second round, with world No.43 Alexei Popyrin drawing wildcard No.154 Marc Polmans plus No.47 Jordan Thompson facing No.61 Aleksandar Vukic, while Alex de Minaur should probably make it three.

Then you’ve got No.45 Max Purcell facing a qualifier or lucky loser, and six others facing unseeded opponents – No.65 Chris O’Connell, No.80 Thanasi Kokkinakis, wildcard No.95 James Duckworth, wildcard No.173 Adam Walton and wildcard No.268 James McCabe.

Only Rinky Hijikata, who battles No.24 seed Jan-Lennard Struff, copped a top-32 opponent.

These players’ dreams may end soon after that – the Popyrin-Polmans winner should then face Novak Djokovic, while the Thompson-Vukic winner should then face Stefanos Tsitsipas – but a half-dozen making the second round is a pretty strong haul.

Aryna Sabalenka

With how chaotic much of the top half of the women’s draw is, the reigning Australian Open champion would have to be thrilled with her start to the tournament.

The world No.2 gets a qualifier in Round 1 – certainly easier than world No.1 Iga Swiatek copping the 2020 champion – and things should be very straight forward until at least the fourth round, when No.13 Liudmila Samsonova (who has beaten her twice in the last 24 months) could be a threat… if she gets there.

Given that Samsonova has lost four of her last five matches, including both of her first-round matches in Brisbane and Adelaide, it’s hard to trust the Russian – which could open up the draw further for Sabalenka.

Tunisian No.6 seed Ons Jabeur, who has only made it past the third round at Melbourne Park once, looms in the quarters before likely No.4 Coco Gauff in the semis.

Most importantly though Sabalenka is in the opposite half to both Iga Swiatek and Elena Rybakina, the latter smashing the Belarusian in their Brisbane International final last week. Dodging at least one of them is a win.

LOSERS

Novak Djokovic… to an extent

It’s hard for the 24-time slam champion to get a truly tricky draw, but there was one thing he didn’t wanted to see. And he saw it.

Djokovic and world No.2 Carlos Alcaraz were always going to be placed in separate halves, but the other member of the emerging big three – world No.4 Jannik Sinner, who had a super-hot ending to 2023, including two wins over Djokovic – was a question mark.

Sinner was placed in the top half of the draw, with Djokovic, meaning the pair are lined up to face each other in the semi-finals.

Alcaraz, on paper, would instead face Daniil Medvedev in the semis – not exactly easy, but probably preferable on recent form.

There are a few potential stumbling blocks on the way to the semis, too.With a qualifier or lucky loser in the first round, then an Aussie (Alexei Popyrin or Marc Polmans) in the second, it’d be a surprise if he stumbled much before the third, when Andy Murray, Gael Monfils or No.30 seed Tomas Martin Etcheverry loom.

Young gun No.16 Ben Shelton, or potentially a throwback clash with Stan Wawrinka, could pose a brief threat in the fourth round before a potential quarter-final against No.7 Stefanos Tsitsipas – a rematch of last year’s final.

Look, Djokovic is the favourite until he finally loses a match at Melbourne Park again. But having to beat Tsitsipas, Sinner and Alcaraz in a row to win a 25th grand slam title is about as tricky as you can get.

Iga Swiatek… again, to an extent

The women’s No.1 has the opposite problem to the men’s No.1 – it’s the start that could get her.

Swiatek, who has dominated the women’s tour since Ash Barty’s retirement but fallen flat quite often in grand slams (and only once made it out of the fourth round at Melbourne Park), was placed in a brutal little section right at the top of the draw.

She opens against Sofia Kenin, the 2020 champion who is also one of the highest-ranked non-seeds in the tournament, making her arguably the toughest first-round draw outside of the returning Naomi Osaka.

The winner of that clash will face another former Australian Open finalist, with 2022 runner-up Danielle Collins battling 2016 champion Angie Kerber in the first round as well.

Swiatek is still the favourite to make it into the third round from this quartet, and from there she’s got a pretty solid run until the semis, where Elena Rybakina or Jessie Pegula likely await.

But that’s one of the toughest possible groupings of four players in this entire draw, when you consider it could only include one seeded player – but features eight slam titles and a handful of finals appearances.

Holger Rune

Perhaps the only good news for the Dane is that he’s on the opposite side of the draw to both Djokovic and Sinner.

But the No.8 seed copped “by far the worst path from the top 8 seeds”, according to tennis journalist and prolific tweeter Jose Morgado – and it’s hard to disagree.

Rune opens against Yoshihito Nishioka, who made the fourth round last year at Melbourne Park, before a likely second-round match with world No.33 Laslo Djere – as in, the highest-ranked player not seeded in the draw. As a seed himself, Rune couldn’t face another seed until the third round, but Djere was the next-toughest possible option.

A tricky third-rounder against No.28 Tallon Griekspoor, reigning Wimbledon quarter-finalist Roman Safiullin or emerging young gun Arthur Fils, then looms before a likely showdown with No.9 seed Hubert Hurkacz.

Oh, and if he gets through all of that, Rune should cop either Daniil Medvedev or the in-form Grigor Dimitrov – who just beat him in straight sets in Brisbane.

Safe to say a semi-final berth from the 20-year-old this year would be a major surprise.