Round 12 told us plenty about where teams truly sit across the NBL. Contenders strengthened their cases, bottom teams continued to slide and those hovering around the mark showed just enough to keep the conversation alive.
Some questions were answered – but many still remain.
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Are Melbourne United really the dominant force they appeared to be through the opening ten rounds?
Have the Tasmania JackJumpers and Sydney Kings injected new life into their championship aspirations?
And after another winless round, is the Brisbane Bullets’ season officially over?
We break it all down and tackle the league’s biggest questions in the latest edition of NBL Talking Points.
MELBOURNE UNITED DROP FOUR STRAIGHT SINCE THE FIBA BREAK
Heading into the FIBA break, Melbourne United looked untouchable. Sitting at 13-2 and fresh off a statement win over the Perth Wildcats, they appeared every bit the benchmark of the competition. Fast forward to the end of Round 12, and the picture looks very different. United have now lost four straight games, including back-to-back overtime defeats against the Adelaide 36ers and Sydney Kings.
What made the round even more remarkable was the nature of those losses. United became just the 11th team in NBL history to play consecutive overtime games – and, in unfortunate fashion, the first team to lose both.
The clash with Adelaide was an instant classic. United went down 114-105 after being outscored 19-10 in overtime, unable to contain Bryce Cotton across the game. Cotton fouled out after a monster performance, finishing with 33 points, 13 assists, seven rebounds and four steals, while Flynn Cameron added 18 points and eight rebounds in a huge support role.
Cotton fouls out in 36ers OT victory | 01:10
The game swung back and forth all night, but statistically United were just off in a few key areas. They lost the rebounding battle 51-46, shot just 30 per cent from three and committed 12 turnovers. Still, there were positives. United won the offensive rebounding count 20-16, Chris Goulding knocked down 24 points while shooting 42 per cent from deep, and Finn Delany continued his strong season with 20 points and nine rebounds.
That same theme carried into the following game against Sydney – competitive for long stretches, but unable to close when it mattered most. United once again found themselves in overtime and once again struggled to generate offence, managing just two points in the extra period as the Kings pulled away.
With Jesse Edwards unavailable, Finn Delany and Fabijan Krslovic stepped up in a major way. Delany posted 16 points and 11 rebounds, while Krslovic added 16 points and 12 boards. As a team, United were strong in several areas: they dominated the glass 54-37, won the offensive rebounding battle 13-10, earned a 28-17 advantage at the free-throw line and shot an efficient 73 per cent from two-point range.
But the concerns were glaring. United turned the ball over 24 times – nearly double their season average of 12.4 – and most alarmingly, completely lost their shooting touch from deep. They finished the game shooting just 3.5 per cent from three-point range, going 1-28 from outside. For a team averaging 31 per cent from beyond the arc on the season, it was a brutal outlier and a clear breaking point in the contest.
Despite the four-game skid, it’s important to note that United have remained competitive throughout and the level of opposition has been elite. This stretch has come against fellow top-five teams, leaving little room for error. Still, to be the best, United must beat the best – and right now, execution in key moments has fallen short.
With teams around them gaining momentum and banking important wins, United will need to arrest this slide quickly. The margin for error in the middle of the season is shrinking and a response is required sooner rather than later to avoid a mid-season slump turning into something more.
TASMANIA JACKJUMPERS PUMP LIFE INTO THEIR SEASON
The Tasmania JackJumpers entered Round 12 knowing it was a critical juncture in their season. After a disappointing Round 11 loss to the New Zealand Breakers, there was little margin for error as they prepared to face two very different challenges in the South East Melbourne Phoenix and the Cairns Taipans. What followed were two gritty, confidence-boosting wins that may have just reignited their campaign.
Against the Phoenix – a top-three side and one of the league’s most potent offensive teams – Tasmania were able to dictate the style of the game from the outset. The JackJumpers dominated the glass, winning the rebounding battle 53-44, including a 14-10 edge on the offensive boards. It was the kind of physical, low-scoring contest that suits Tasmania’s identity and they were able to drag the Phoenix into it.
Davis on fire as Kings beat Wildcats | 00:56
Holding South East Melbourne to just 81 points was no small feat, especially considering they averaging a league-high 96.9 points per game. Even with Tasmania shooting just 19 per cent from three-point range, they never lost control of the contest. Bryce Hamilton led the way with 18 points and nine rebounds, while Josh Bannan continued his strong stretch with 12 points and 13 boards, helping disrupt the Phoenix at both ends of the floor.
The win over Cairns followed a similar script – tough, physical and built on effort rather than shot-making. The JackJumpers pulled away after halftime, outscoring the Taipans 44-29 in the second half to secure an 81-68 victory. Bannan was again a central figure, finishing with 20 points, 13 rebounds and three assists, while Hamilton filled the stat sheet with 13 points, seven rebounds and seven assists. David Johnson also provided a timely lift off the bench with 13 points.
Rebounding once again proved decisive. Tasmania crushed Cairns on the glass 51-31, including a dominant 21-5 advantage in offensive rebounds. Bannan and Will Magnay set the tone inside, combining for 13 offensive boards, and the JackJumpers forced 10 Taipans turnovers. Even with another inefficient shooting night from deep (25 per cent), Tasmania’s work rate and defensive pressure ensured the result never truly slipped.
This was the type of round the JackJumpers simply had to have. Two wins were essential not just for the ladder, but for belief. Sitting sixth at 8-10, Tasmania remain firmly in the mix and after a period where energy and momentum felt hard to come by, Round 12 may have delivered the spark the season needed.
THE SYDNEY KINGS TAKE TWO MAJOR SCALPS
Round 12 couldn’t have gone much better for the Sydney Kings. Two games into a demanding three-games-in-five-days stretch, they sit 2-0 after road trips to Perth and Melbourne – two of the toughest assignments in the league. The wins came in very different fashion: a dominant dismantling of the Wildcats followed by a gritty overtime victory against Melbourne United.
In Perth, the Kings set the tone early and never looked back. What unfolded was one of their most complete performances of the season, cruising to a 108-79 win built around a masterclass from Kendric Davis. Davis erupted for 38 points, eight assists, five rebounds and a steal, shooting 56 per cent from the field. It was the second-highest individual score ever recorded by an opposition player at RAC Arena, just two points shy of Jerome Randle’s venue record.
The performance was significant for a Kings side still searching for consistent form from Davis after his runner-up MVP season with Adelaide last year. He was well supported, with Kouat Noi adding 23 points and four rebounds, while Xavier Cooks contributed 17 points, six assists and three rebounds in an all-around display.
Rebounding was a clear concern on paper, with Sydney conceding 24 offensive boards and losing the overall count, but it ultimately proved irrelevant. The Kings’ shooting efficiency told the story – 42.8 per cent from three and a blistering 69 per cent from inside the arc. Despite attempting fewer field goals than the Wildcats, Sydney controlled the game from start to finish in what could be described as a professional, statement win.
Hawks take 15-point win against Bullets | 00:54
The clash with Melbourne United was a completely different challenge. It was physical, tense and closely contested throughout, with the Kings eventually prevailing 92-86 after an overtime period where they outscored United 8-2. Davis once again led the way, backing up his Perth performance with 26 points, six assists and three rebounds.
Matthew Dellavedova continued to build into form with 15 points and four rebounds, while Hunter Goodrick made a valuable impact off the bench, pulling down 10 rebounds to go with six points. While the Kings were once again beaten on the glass – 54-37 overall and 13-10 on the offensive boards – their defensive pressure proved decisive.
Sydney’s ability to take away United’s perimeter shooting completely changed the game. United were held to just one made three-pointer from 28 attempts, a remarkable 3.5 per cent shooting night from beyond the arc. The Kings also forced 24 turnovers, repeatedly disrupting United’s rhythm and creating extra scoring opportunities. Free throws kept United in the contest, with a 28-17 advantage at the line, but it wasn’t enough to swing the result.
After these two wins, the Kings improve to 9-7 on the season and jump into fourth place on the ladder. While there are still clear areas for improvement – particularly on the boards – the upside is undeniable. With Dellavedova back in the lineup, Cooks continuing to find his rhythm and Davis rediscovering elite form, Sydney are starting to look like a team capable of putting together a serious run.
If they can maintain this level of focus and avoid slipping against teams below them on the ladder, the Kings have the talent and experience to be a genuine threat in the NBL championship race.
THE BRISBANE BULLETS SEASON IS OVER
The Brisbane Bullets now sit at 5-13 on the season following a winless Round 12 that saw them comprehensively beaten across both outings. With new faces re-entering the lineup and renewed optimism around the club following the FIBA break, Brisbane instead find themselves sliding further down the ladder, having now lost six straight games.
That optimism was tested earlier this week during a members-only mid-season forum, where head coach Stu Lash was asked whether he would consider stepping aside. His response – “Those are conversations that are actively happening right now” – only added to the growing pressure surrounding the first-year head coach. Following another winless round, those conversations are unlikely to disappear anytime soon.
The opening game of the round against the Illawarra Hawks was billed as a battle between two bottom-four sides, yet Brisbane struggled to remain competitive for long stretches. After an encouraging first quarter, where they outscored the Hawks 33-23, the Bullets faded badly, capped off by a final term where they were outscored 29-17.
Brisbane had no answers for JaVale McGee, who dominated with 30 points and 10 rebounds, while Will Hickey added 18 points and eight rebounds. The Bullets were beaten decisively on the glass, losing the rebounding battle 46-35, including 10-6 on the offensive boards. Their offensive struggles were glaring, shooting just 19 per cent from beyond the arc and recording only 14 assists for the game.
The second game of the round against the Perth Wildcats followed a similar pattern. While the contest was scrappy early, Perth gradually took control and walked away with an 86-62 win in Brisbane. The Wildcats again won the key areas, edging the rebounding count 49-43 and holding the Bullets to just 25 per cent from three-point range.
Terry Taylor was a lone bright spot for Brisbane, finishing with 18 points and eight rebounds, while Tyrell Harrison contributed 10 points and 12 boards. Despite forcing a physical contest, the Bullets’ offensive limitations were once again exposed – scoring more than 20 points in just one quarter and even then managing only 21.
Now on a six-game losing streak, Brisbane’s upcoming schedule offers little relief. Over their next six games, they face the South East Melbourne Phoenix, New Zealand Breakers, Melbourne United, Sydney Kings, Perth Wildcats and Adelaide 36ers.
Based on current form, it’s difficult to see the Bullets making a meaningful dent in that stretch. With their record, confidence and consistency all trending in the wrong direction, the margin for a late-season surge has all but vanished.
The club now faces a difficult decision — allow Lash to ride out the season or make a change in an attempt to inject fresh energy into the organisation. Either option feels unlikely to salvage the year, but professional sport has seen stranger turnarounds.
Still, with Brisbane’s record, form and looming run home, it’s hard to escape the conclusion that the Bullets’ season is well and truly over.
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