The Buddy evidence Dees should sell Petracca ‘at his highest point’ — and why it’s so complex

Not only do the Magpies not have the draft assets to strike a deal — they’re without their first-round pick and only hold selections 32, 48 and 50 in this draft as well as whatever they get back for Suns-bound John Noble.

But Collingwood is also not in a position to accommodate Petracca’s $1 million plus salary into its books.

It’s understood the Pies are unlikely to explore other ways to go all in for Petracca and are prioritising bringing in a key defensive reinforcement following Nathan Murphy’s medical retirement earlier this year including talk of a homecoming for Crow Mark Keane.

That leaves Carlton as the leading contender in the race, but there’s many complications to getting a deal done.

The Blues hold picks 11 and 31 and could also dangle a future first rouner pick plus players. Both McKay and Charlie Curnow, who are thought to be players of interest for Melbourne, reportedly don’t want to leave Ikon Park and can’t be traded unless they agree to it.

Of course, players can still be talked into a trade — think Brodie Grundy, Adam Treloar, Ryan Burton and Josh Kennedy of recent times.

“If clubs want to steer a player one way, they can massage things to get deals done and all of a sudden the dominoes fall pretty quickly,” King said.

“But this is more Christian Petracca’s problem than Harry McKay’s. Petracca’s management team have to satisfy Melbourne on the way out or he isn’t going anywhere.”

A list manager spoken to by foxfooty.com.au thinks even if the Blues offered McKay and their first-round pick, it wouldn’t be enough to appease the Demons and that Carlton might need to include another player.

Melbourne has already loaded up with young talent in recent years including using two first-round picks last year on Caleb Windsor (No. 7) and Koltyn Tholstrup (No. 13) to add to its nucleus of Jacob van Rooyen, Judd McVee, Jake Bowey, Daniel Turner, Kysaiah Pickett and Trent Rivers.

While McKay should be considered an untouchable, if the Blues were to ever consider the nuclear option of moving him, it should only be for a player of Petracca’s ilk — a bona fide top five player in the competition when fully fit.

“Only Michael Voss and those internal at Carlton knows how it might look without McKay. They would’ve seen it at training, practised different things, had a look at the forward line with him and without him. Does it work for Curnow? Does it help TDK (Tom De Koning) get more opportunity ruck-forward?,” King posed.

“They’ve got a surplus of talls, so there’s an advantage they could use in a trade sense.

“They’d have to make sure Petracca in, McKay out actually gives them a considerable uplift. If it was one-for-one, Carlton in theory is miles in front all things being equal.

“Petracca at full health and in full flight is one of the best players in the competition, McKay is not at that level.

“But will Christian get back to that level when he’s healthy? The jury’s out. This is a slow, long rehab process. But you’re going to get a hungry player and a player who wants to prove a point at a new club with a new opportunity.”

There’s frankly no other really obvious options for Petracca.

Essendon and Richmond round out the traditional ‘big four’ Victorian clubs, but neither necessarily makes sense.

The Bombers could offer Pick 8, their future first rounder and potentially one of their young players. But would Petracca really want to leave Melbourne for a club that’s been stuck in AFL purgatory for two decades?

Similarly, Richmond has bottomed out and looks set for several years of pain before it climbs back up the ladder.

The Tigers could have as many as five or six first-round picks – pending how many of their players depart this trade period – so in theory they could have the assets to make it happen. Plus, Tom Lynch is reportedly a player of interest for the Dees.

Hawthorn is the other club to watch, but already has its hands full this trade period.

The Hawks are set to land West Coast gun defender Tom Barrass, which would almost certainly take away their first round pick, and have been linked to free agents Josh Battle and Harry Perryman.

Therefore, you’d think one or more of those deals, namely the Barrass move, would have to fall through for Hawthorn to be a serious player in the Petracca sweepstakes.

Mitch Lewis could be a target for Melbourne, but would Hawthorn be prepared to extradite players and risk blowing up such a great culture that’s been cultivated under Sam Mitchell?

You could never count out Geelong, a perennially successful club consistently in big games and big finals. However its first pick — No. 16 — would likely be part of a deal for out-of-contract Western Bulldogs gun Bailey Smith.

Speaking of the Dogs, they might be an appealing option for Petracca, but don’t necessarily fit the bill of ‘big Victorian club’.

While they technically don’t have a first rounder right now, the Dogs are expected to get Geelong’s Pick 16 and have Ryley Sanders and Jordan Croft currently plying their trade in the VFL as highly-rated youngsters with currency.

Then there’s North Melbourne and St Kilda, who’ve long struggled to land big fish and aren’t exactly destination clubs right now for a player wanting to play in front of huge crowds.

There’s currently no indication Petracca would be willing to go to a non-Victorian side.

“You sit back and it’s a sellers market. You say: ‘Christian, we’re happy to facilitate the move if that’s what you really want. But we want the best deal we can get’,” King said.

“He wants to go to a big, powerful club with a massive fan base, but those clubs don’t absolutely have the right picks to get that done right now. If these clubs want him, they’ll find a way get a deal done.

“Or it doesn’t work out and they say to him: ‘Unless we get like-for-like, you’re going nowhere,’ — and that’s the beauty of the long-term contract.

“Then he has to work out how he handles a re-emergence back into the club and approaching people that have their nose up right now because of the way this has unfolded.

“Melbourne is not giving this guy up for nothing. They understand what this would mean and what this would do.

“The flow-on effect to the management of this footy club and all warts in terms of the way this situation has been handled will be exposed if Christian leaves. That could be a disaster for the guys who have mismanaged Christian in the last six months.”