The hidden speed setting up a shootout thriller as young gun sets statement lap: Talking Points

The margin between success and disaster around Mount Panorama is as fine as cement dust, though Will Davison didn’t have time to contemplate those tiny particles as he careered into the barriers at the Dipper.

It’s a relatively slow section of the track, but the impact was huge. Davison’s Dick Johnson Racing Camaro pinballed between the walls, spinning with unchecked momentum over the cement dust masking an earlier fluid spill, until it came to a shattering, crunching stop in the cement.

The two-time Bathurst-winning veteran as lucky to escape uninjured — a testament not only to the modern car’s safety features but also the new onboard warning system that alerted drivers behind him almost instantly that there was a problem ahead.

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It’s how Nick Percat could have had the presence of mind to stop and check on his winded, shaken but unhurt friend in a tremendous act of sportsmanship.

“I just had flashes of his Tassie crash with his lower back,” Percat told Fox Sports, recalling the sickening 42G first-lap crash at Symmons Plains in 2017 in which Davison broke a vertebra.

“I thought he had had a head-on [crash], to be fair, so I thought, ‘This is no good for his lower back’.

“I got to him as quick as I could. I know as driver you don’t want to feel trapped. I just tried to help him out.

“He’s a good mate. I’m glad to see his was all right.

“It’s biting hard, this weekend, the mountain.”

It’s been a particularly crash-prone 48 hours of action, with major smashes marring both days. Few teams haven’t had at least one car getting too friendly with the barriers.

In fact Davison’s smash was triggered by cement dust covering up fluids leaked by David Reynolds’s Camaro after the Team 18 driver shunted enormously at the Dipper while on a flying lap, having just set a personal best sector.

“Everyone’s trying so hard,” Cam Waters told Fox Sports, trying to explain the carnage after himself having come perilously close to sliding into the barriers at the top of the mountain. “Even from practice 1 it was bloody crazy how fast everyone was going straight out to the box.

“Maybe it’s the hard tyre — you’ve got grip then you don’t with the hard tyre, so that might be catching a few of us out.

“It’s definitely challenging out there.”

That challenge — and the ensuing bingles — left a lasting mark on the final qualifying order, with the red flag decisive not just for Davison and Percat but for the pole contenders, a group from which emerged Matt Payne in provisional top spot.

PAYNE’S STATEEMENT DRIVE PIPS VETERAN

Matt Payne has taken provisional pole on just his third visit to the Bathurst 1000.

It’s a remarkable achievement for the two-time race winner in just his second full-time season in the main game.

He had to overcome the super experienced Cam Waters to get there, beating the Tickford qualifying ace by just 0.006 seconds.

That measures up to just 29.8 centimetres around Mount Panorama.

He now gets the privilege of lining up last for the top 10 shootout, theoretically capitalising on the best conditions in a bid to convert his provisional pole into the real deal.

“Really happy with today’s performance,” he said. “It was a little bit messy with a couple of red flags, but I managed to put it together at the end.

“The lap felt pretty good, and I’m pretty happy with where we’re at now.”

Co-driver Garth Tander, the five-time Bathurst winner, was something of a secret weapon during the disrupted 40 minutes, helping to keep him in the zone.

“We were talking throughout the session,” Payne said. “He gave me a couple of tips.

“We were just talking about the situation. It’s good to have him this weekend. We’ve come in here with a lot of preparation for this race.

“It’s going good so far, but it’s only Friday.”

Waters will be second-last on the road, and a formidable threat, having already taken five pole positions this year.

TV cameras picked up several lairy moments over the mountain — there was more on the table — but he argued afterwards that he found the limit of grip at those corners now, giving him some time up his sleeve in the shootout.

Payne undoubtedly has things he’ll have learnt over the lap, things he guessed could be worth another 0.1 or 0.2 seconds after some Friday night analysis.

It’ll be a fascinating duel on Saturday afternoon.

FEENEY DEPRIVED OF PROVISIONAL POLE CHANCE

The story of the pole battle was that the top four drivers were split by 0.019 seconds.

But Feeney came achingly close to blowing the whole thing open just as the red flags flew to truncate the session.

Feeney and co-driver Jamie Whincup have been on the pace all weekend, consistently threatening the top of the time sheets and looking supremely comfortable in the 88 Camaro.

The 40-minute qualifying session was no different, with Feeney sticking among the frontrunners throughout.

His final lap was set to be something special.

His first sector was the fastest of anyone all afternoon.

His second sector wasn’t a personal best but nonetheless had him holding a 0.251-second advantage over Payne heading into the final split.

Then the red flag flew as he exited the final corner, forcing him to slow and scuppering the lap.

But if you include that spoiled final split, he would have set a time of 2 minutes 5.618 seconds — enough to pip Payne for provisional pole by 0.027 seconds.

How fast could he have gone without the interruption?

If you were to substitute his red-flagged final sector for his fastest final split, set on his previous flying lap, his fastest time would drop to 2 minutes 5.404 seconds.

He would’ve taken provisional pole by a comfortable 0.241 seconds.

For context, the top seven were split by 0.282 seconds after qualifying.

T0 be fair, Payne also had his final flying lap cancelled by Davison’s crash, but he improved by only 0.042 seconds on his previous personal best in the first split. That’s all the data we have to compare, but it’s hard not to conclude Feeney had the pace for provisional pole.

Instead he’ll be eighth on the road in the Saturday’s top 10 shootout — hardly disastrous, being the difference of perhaps 10 minutes between laps.

But if the times are as close as they ended up today, any difference could be crucial.

DID KOSTECKI LEAVE TIME ON THE TABLE?

How much faster could Kostecki have been during qualifying?

The reigning champion arrived at Mount Panorama looking a lot more like his 2023 self.

Perhaps feeding off what had been a fast weekend in Sandown — albeit before his car expired — or perhaps just rising to the occasion of the Great Race, as all great drivers do, he’s looked like a contender since he first rolled out of pit lane.

He qualified a competitive fourth, just 0.019 seconds off the pace.

But his session may have hinged on a crash scaling the mountain around halfway through the session.

Carrying fractionally too much speed into Reid Park, he slapped the barrier almost square with the right-side of his car. Immediately it was clear he’d picked up damage, with his wheels oscillating as he limped back to pit lane.

Hasty repair works were undertaken, but the car was far from perfect when it took to the track to try to salvage a place in the top 10.

His subsequent performance surely greatly exceeded expectations.

His previous best before the smash had been 2 minutes 6.154 seconds. By the chequered flag he’d dropped that to a punch 2 minute 5.665 seconds.

But how much faster could he have gone with a mint-condition car?

That’s now a question for the top 1o shootout.

It’s worth remembering just how rapid Kostecki was this time last year.

Charging towards his maiden title, he was 0.149 seconds quicker than anyone in qualifying and then slammed almost half a second on the field in the shootout.

His main rival in the pole-setting session was Feeney, albeit it turned out there was no real competition.

Given Feeney and Kostecki’s hidden pace, we could be set for a rematch in 2024.

MATT STONE RACING COMPLETES EPIC RECOVERY

After Friday morning practice there was no way you’d have tipped either Matt Stone Racing driver to get anywhere near the top 10 shootout.

In a devastating hour of practice, both cars ended up heavily in the wall.

The first was Cameron Crick, who catapulted Cameron Hill’s Camaro into the barriers entering Forrest’s Elbow. He’d clipped the apex wall at the preceding corner, sending him careering into the concrete fence out of control in a big impact that did considerable damage to car 4.

At the end of the session Dylan O’Keefe botched his braking into Griffin’s Bend and launched himself into the tyre barriers, his car likewise taking a beating.

Both machines needed time-consuming rebuilds that saw them miss some of practice 4. Hill and Percat went into qualifying with set-up only estimated given the lack of track time.

“The co-drivers have got one job, and that’s not mess it up for the main driver,” team boss Matt Stone told Fox Sports. “Unfortunately both our guys didn’t do that today. It’s not a great situation.”

But a combination of remarkable work and steadfast driving pulled a miracle out of the bag.

Hill will line up 12th on Sunday, with Percat behind him in 13th, 0.063 seconds and 0.074 seconds shy of a spot in the top 10 respectively.

“We had to work pretty hard, both cars, to try and get ourselves into the 10,” Percat told Fox Sports.

“We had really quick cars up until obviously the unfortunate few incidents today.

“My last lap was kind of gearing up — I had to wait for the power steering to bleed all the air out of it for a few runs and bed some brakes in, and the last run was always the one where I was going to have a crack.

“It was close. Everyone would’ve been on a very good lap, but I think we were in the 5.7 territory, which might’ve snuck us in there around Chaz — would’ve, could’ve, should’ve.”

Percat had improved by around 0.1 seconds in his final first sector before the red flag. Considering the margins — albeit several other drivers were improving at the time — he came painfully close to pulling off what would have been a Matt Stone miracle.