A popular saying in racing is ‘the eyes never lie’.
So, we’ve compiled a video of a host of Cup chances’ last start runs (see above), to help you make a more informed decision when trying to pick a winner.
Here, in chronological order, is a series of key races leading up to the 2024 Melbourne Cup.
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FORM GUIDE: Expert verdict on every runner and predicted top 4
JIMMY CASSIDY’s ULTIMATE FORM GUIDE: Two-time champ’s verdict
ULTIMATE GUIDE: How much winner gets and the horses punters are backing
EXPERT TIPS: Who those in the know are backing
THE 2023 MELBOURNE CUP (3200m), Flemington, 7-11-23
Watch for: Interpretation (6th), Absurde (7th), Okita Soushi (11th), Vauban (14th)
A long time ago now but always good to see who can perform in this race, over this distance, with a view to the next one.
Interpretation made good ground from the back to take sixth, albeit under a tiny weight.
Absurde was meant to be Willie Mullins’ second-stringer but turned in a better run than favourite Vauban, travelling wide without cover for the last
600m. He got a bit tired late but was entitled to, and was just nosed out of sixth, while Vauban was disappointing.
Okita Soushi looked like doing something but tired late into 11th, but that was during a raid here from Ireland. He’s been here ever since, with master
trainer Ciaron Maher, and has acclimatised now, as shown by his recent Moonee Valley Cup win.
THE ANDREW RAMSDEN (2800m), Flemington, 18-05-24
Watch for: The Map (1st)
Qualified for the Cup with this impressive looking staying effort. Enjoyed a nice run in transit, got out into the clear fairly late, then – most impressively – found a final surge right at the end of 2800m to get the job done. Again though, not the classiest of races for a Cup pointer.
LONSDALE CUP (3319m), York UK, 23-08-24
Watch for: Vauban (1st)
This gelding was favourite for the Big Cup last year but failed, running 14th. But this run at York showed he was back close to peak form. Impressive that he put the race to bed with a winning burst of acceleration from the 400m (the “2” furlong marker) to the 300m. You need that turn of foot to win a Melbourne Cup. He did only just hold on to win, but this race was 119m longer than the Melbourne Cup.
CHESTER STAKES (2916m), Chester, UK, 31-08-24
Watch for: Absurde (1st)
This horse ran a strong seventh in last year’s Melbourne Cup and has shown he’s in form again. Won a 3419m hurdle race at Chester two starts before
this. Was bottled up for a run for a long while but once a gap appeared on the rail he slipped through without his jockey moving a muscle, and careered
away to win by 1.3 lengths.
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FINAL FIELD: Who made the cut for 2024?
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THE BART CUMMINGS (2520m), Flemington, 05-10-24
Watch for: Just Fine (1st), Interpretation (6th), Positivity (7th), Saint George (9th).
Just Fine was treated to an excellent front-running ride from Jordan Childs, pinching a break before the turn and having just enough in the tank to win by
0.2 lens. His next run in the Moonee Valley Cup, however, seemed to dash his Big Cup hopes.
Interpretation was a super run, coming from last on the home turn to grind away and keep coming all the way down the straight like a two-miler.
Positivity kept plugging on but dudded next start at Moonee Valley.
Conversely Saint George looked like doing something before fading, but showed he took a lot of benefit from the run with a decent effort next start at Moonee Valley.
CAULFIELD CUP (2400m), Caulfield, 19-10-24
Watch for: Buckaroo (2nd), Land Legend (3rd), Zardozi (4th), Fancy Man (6th), Valiant King (9th), Circle Of Fire (10th), Warp Speed (13th),
Knight’s Choice (14th).
Buckaroo was the best run of the Melbourne Cup hopefuls. Travelled at the back, moved up strongly around the turn and steamed home the best of the
beaten brigade to come second, showing his great turn of foot at his first go at 2400m. This Cup is 800m longer but his ability to switch off and accelerate will help.
Fancy Man turned in a sneaky little run. Travelled in midfield then took an eternity to get wound up in the last 400m, looking like he was just getting
warm towards the end and wanted much further.
Land Legend travelled midfield and was asked to sustain a long run from the 800m. Battled on pretty well for third.
Zardozi plugged away to hang on for fourth but had nothing left in the tank. Would have wanted to see a bit more for the step up to 3200m.
Circle Of Fire, Warp Speed, Knight’s Choice disappointing.
GEELONG CUP (2400m), Geelong, 23-10-24
Watch for: Onesmoothoperator (1st), Interpretation (2nd), The Map (6th).
One of the most impressive Cup trials this from Onesmoothoperator. Covered extra ground by travelling three wide in the run, though he did get some nice cover from one in front of him, but was then four wide without cover for the last 600m. Didn’t matter. Like another of these tough English stayers, he burst away inside the straight like he’d just been dropped into the race and brained ‘em. Has won up to 3319m, and the Geelong Cup has hatched many a Big Cup winner, aided by the fact it’s beautifully timed, being a fortnight less a day from Flemington.
Interpretation turned in another strong trial. He looked under pressure before the turn, with a couple of reminders with the whip, but once he got going he
came home from the back like a horse crying out for 3200m.
The Map was unlucky in running into traffic in the straight and finished on well once finally clear for sixth in another of her consistent runs. Was right up on the heels of the first few 50m after the post.
MOONEE VALLEY CUP (2500m), Moonee Valley, 25-10-24
Watch for: Okita Soushi (1st), Sharp ’N’ Smart (3rd), Saint George (5th), Positivity (8th), Just Fine (10th).
Okita Soushi was ultra impressive in winning by 0.5 lengths. Did have the choice position in running in the one-one (one off the fence and one behind
the leaders), but steamed home well in a sustained run over the last 650m to comfortably hold out the second horse.
Sharp ’N’ Smart looked under pressure at the 600 and even got a couple of reminders with the whip about the 500m. He finally got going in the home
straight once he was finally warmed up, but then faded again late on.
Saint George was a decent run, making ground from last as if a tough grind around 3200m at Flemington might be up his alley.
Just Fine and Positivity weakened badly.
COX PLATE (2040m), Moonee Valley, 26-10-24
Watch for: Kovalica (6th)
Kovalica settled at the back and just got past a couple of tired horses at the end. Did opt to go back from a wide gate but not that flash a trial for the Cup.
BENDIGO CUP (2400m), Bendigo, 30-10-11
Watch for: Sea King (1st)
Imperious victory for this lightly-raced British raider on his Australian debut. Settled midfield, took off at the 900m mark and pulled his way to the front, and bolted away to win by 3.75 lengths. Looked like one of these British stayers who’ll have no trouble with the 3200m.
EMPIRE ROSE STAKES (1600m), Flemington, 02-11-24
Watch for: Zardozi (5th)
Zardozi flew home from way back with only 200m to go to get fifth. Unusual for a Cup horse to run over half the Cup’s distance three days beforehand, but this was the perfect trial you’d hope for if attempting that. Was way out the back and outpaced, then making great ground late.
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