Top-four intruder threatens shock rise as 13-team race going down to the wire: AFLW Run Home

AFLW LADDER (After Round 7)

1. Adelaide Crows (7-0, 237%) – To play: at Brisbane (4th), vs North (2nd), at West Coast (17th)

2. North Melbourne (6-1, 294.4%) – To play: at Melbourne (3rd), at Adelaide (1st), vs Western Bulldogs (18th)

3. Melbourne (6-1, 266.2%) – To play: vs North (2nd), vs Fremantle (13th), at Brisbane (4th)

4. Brisbane Lions (5-2, 173.3%) – To play: vs Adelaide (1st), at St Kilda (10th), vs Melbourne (3rd)

5. Essendon (5-2, 104.1%) – To play: vs West Coast (17th), vs Carlton (9th), at Gold Coast (7th)

6. Geelong (4-3, 123%) – To play: at Collingwood (8th), at Richmond (11th), vs Hawthorn (14th)

7. Gold Coast Suns (4-3, 107.6%) – To play: at Port Adelaide (15th), vs GWS (16th), vs Essendon (5th)

8. Collingwood (4-3, 98.8%) – To play: vs Geelong (6th), at Sydney (12th), vs Richmond (11th)

9. Carlton (4-3, 98.1%) – To play: at GWS (16th), at Essendon (5th), vs St Kilda (10th)

10. St Kilda (4-3, 97.3%) – To play: at Fremantle (13th), vs Brisbane (4th), at Carlton (9th)

11. Richmond (3-4, 92%) – To play: at Hawthorn (14th), vs Geelong (6th), at Collingwood (8th)

12. Sydney Swans (3-4, 79.8%) – To play: at Bulldogs (18th), vs Collingwood (8th), at Fremantle (13th)

13. Fremantle (3-4, 70.7%) – To play: vs St Kilda (10th), at Melbourne (3rd), vs Sydney (12th)

14. Hawthorn (2-5, 67.2%) – To play: vs Richmond (11th), vs Port Adelaide (15th), at Geelong (6th)

15. Port Adelaide (1-6, 56.5%) – To play: vs Gold Coast (7th), at Hawthorn (14th), vs GWS (16th)

16. GWS Giants (1-6, 53.3%) – To play: vs Carlton (9th), at Gold Coast (7th), at Port Adelaide (15th)

17. West Coast Eagles (1-7, 41.7%) – To play: at Essendon (5th), vs Western Bulldogs (18th), vs Adelaide (1st)

18. Western Bulldogs (0-7, 55.9%) – To play: vs Sydney (12th), at West Coast (17th), vs North (2nd)

THE TOP FOUR RACE

1. Adelaide Crows (7-0, 237%) – To play: at Brisbane (4th), vs North (2nd), at West Coast (17th)

2. North Melbourne (6-1, 294.4%) – To play: at Melbourne (3rd), at Adelaide (1st), vs Western Bulldogs (18th)

3. Melbourne (6-1, 266.2%) – To play: vs North (2nd), vs Fremantle (13th), at Brisbane (4th)

4. Brisbane Lions (5-2, 173.3%) – To play: vs Adelaide (1st), at St Kilda (10th), vs Melbourne (3rd)

5. Essendon (5-2, 104.1%) – To play: vs West Coast (17th), vs Carlton (9th), at Gold Coast (7th)

One of these things is not like the other.

The perennial AFLW contenders remain at the top of the ladder, with the premiership almost certain to be won by one of Adelaide, Melbourne, Brisbane or North Melbourne.

This is not a surprise; in particular, the former three have won five of the six premierships awarded, and taken up 10 of the 12 Grand Final spots. (The 2018 Bulldogs, who won it, and 2019 Blues, who lost to Adelaide, are the only intruders.)

But then there’s Essendon, who in just their second season at AFLW level are a massive chance to sit in the top four with two rounds remaining – and could certainly hold onto it from there.

If the Bombers knock off lowly West Coast this week, and Brisbane loses to unbeaten Adelaide at home, it’ll be the women from Tullamarine sitting inside the double chance places and just needing to hold off fellow top-eight contenders Carlton and Gold Coast in the last two weeks. They could even afford a loss in one of those games, if the Lions lose again to reigning premiers Melbourne in the final round.

Realistically Essendon – who have beaten Hawthorn (currently 14th), St Kilda (10th), Fremantle (13th), Geelong (6th) and Richmond (11th) – are not one of the four best teams. They were blown off the park in their one game against a top-four side (47-point loss to Adelaide).

But this is where the imbalanced fixture is having a real impact. Despite West Coast coach Michael Prior’s now-retracted complaint, the top teams do play each other more often, and so the Lions – near-perennial bridesmaids in this competition, despite constantly being raided for talent – could be forced into an elimination final.

The next two weeks should decide the minor premiership, with the Kangaroos likely to surpass the Crows if they win out (including a Round 9 win over Adelaide), and Melbourne lurking if the sides above them stumble.

The Demons, by the way, can effectively clinch the McClelland Trophy – now awarded to the best-performing club across both the men’s and women’s competition, with women’s wins worth eight points and men’s worth four – with two more victories.

RACE FOR THE LAST FOUR SPOTS IN THE FINALS

5. Essendon (5-2, 104.1%) – To play: vs West Coast (17th), vs Carlton (9th), at Gold Coast (7th)

6. Geelong (4-3, 123%) – To play: at Collingwood (8th), at Richmond (11th), vs Hawthorn (14th)

7. Gold Coast Suns (4-3, 107.6%) – To play: at Port Adelaide (15th), vs GWS (16th), vs Essendon (5th)

8. Collingwood (4-3, 98.8%) – To play: vs Geelong (6th), at Sydney (12th), vs Richmond (11th)

9. Carlton (4-3, 98.1%) – To play: at GWS (16th), at Essendon (5th), vs St Kilda (10th)

10. St Kilda (4-3, 97.3%) – To play: at Fremantle (13th), vs Brisbane (4th), at Carlton (9th)

11. Richmond (3-4, 92%) – To play: at Hawthorn (14th), vs Geelong (6th), at Collingwood (8th)

12. Sydney Swans (3-4, 79.8%) – To play: at Bulldogs (18th), vs Collingwood (8th), at Fremantle (13th)

13. Fremantle (3-4, 70.7%) – To play: vs St Kilda (10th), at Melbourne (3rd), vs Sydney (12th)

As discussed above, the Bombers are a real chance of making the top four, but as their percentage shows they’re realistically in the chasing pack – and a couple of stumbles could put them at some risk of missing the eight entirely.

They should be OK with six wins unless things really go wrong, and that’s the number for everyone else to chase too – meaning the Cats, Suns, Magpies, Blues and Saints can only afford one loss, while the Tigers, Swans and Dockers need to win out.

That makes some games absolutely massive, including this weekend’s Dockers-Saints and Magpies-Cats.

The Collingwood–Geelong winner will be well-placed to take one spot in the eight, with two ensuing games against lesser opposition to finish the year. The Magpies, having beaten Brisbane and Essendon but lost to Gold Coast and St Kilda, are something of an enigma while the Cats’ losses have all come against the top five. That is to say, both teams are finals-quality.

Gold Coast’s next two games come against bottom-four opposition, and should have them 6-3 with a strong percentage heading into an also-winnable clash with the Bombers, so they should make it; though it’s worth noting they’ve taken advantage of some very narrow wins (one point over Richmond, four points over the winless Bulldogs, two points over Carlton).

So the Suns and Bombers should certainly reach six wins, and the Cats and Magpies are certainly good enough too. Is that our bottom half of the eight?

Well, St Kilda is making a late charge after a difficult start this year under coach Nick Dal Santo but still has to play a very tough Brisbane side – so six wins looks like their ceiling.

Carlton could hope to reach six or even seven wins, but has a mammoth fortnight to finish the year, with a gettable but in-form Essendon plus a likely pre-finals elimination final against the Saints.

Of the 3-4 sides, Richmond – a surprising top-four finisher in the previous season – shapes as the biggest threat. That top four finish earned them a reasonably tricky draw, and saw losses to Brisbane and Adelaide to begin the year.

Combined with their loss to Essendon and the one-point thriller against Gold Coast, they’re probably too far back, but if they knock off both the Cats and Magpies they’re a chance to pinch one of those sides’ spots in the eight in the process.

Sydney has impressed in its second season, after earning a wooden spoon while going winless in season seven, but their wins have come over the Giants, Eagles and Power – all bottom four sides.

They play another one this week but the loss of emerging superstar Ally Morphett for the rest of the season with a wrist injury is likely to ensure they can’t also knock off Collingwood and Fremantle to complete a stunning charge into the eight.