Trade watch as Dons eye top-10 haul; when bevy of bids will come — Draft burning Qs

HOW DOES THE AFL DRAFT WORK?

All 18 clubs are entitled to draft picks, which are based on the reverse finishing order from the previous AFL season.

And in a change that came into effect this year, these picks can now be traded up to two years in advance.

Additionally, some picks are also distributed as compensation for departed free agents.

On draft night, the teams select in order, going about adding the best young or mature-aged talent that aren’t already on AFL lists.

The only exceptions are when draft picks are traded on the night or when bids for father-son and academy prospects linked to certain clubs are made. Those clubs then choose whether or not to match those rival bids with draft points.

HOW DOES THE AFL DRAFT BIDDING SYSTEM WORK?

The AFL has a Draft Value Index, a system where each draft pick — up until the 54th selection — is allocated a points value.

This allows clubs with existing links to draft prospects — either through academy programs or as father-sons — to ‘pay’ for these players by using multiple picks. It also means rival clubs can bid on these players.

For clubs to secure their linked talent, they must pay and match a bid by using the draft picks they already hold. This is often done by bundling up multiple later picks to amass a cumulative value of a higher pick.

There was previously a 20 per cent discount for matching bids, however, under the new Index changes, that has been reduced to 10 per cent.

If a club does not have enough picks at the time, it can enter ‘draft deficit’, meaning the value of its hand next year will decrease. If that club chooses not to match a bid, then the player will go to the club that made the bid.

The league’s Index underwent a significant change ahead of this year. It saw a reduction in total points, removing points from later picks to make it harder for clubs to use multiple late-round selections to match bids on father-son and Academy players.

Last year, picks up to no.73 in the order held a points value. That is no longer the case.

WHO ARE THE BEST PLAYERS IN THE DRAFT?

Gippsland Power utility Willem Duursma is seen as the consensus top talent heading into Wednesday night’s count — sitting atop Fox Footy draft expert Ben Waterworth’s top 50 rankings.

Duursma, who has been compared to Hawthorn’s Will Day, has an elite kick, great lateral movement and the versatility to play in multiple positions on the field. It’s seen as a fait accompli that the West Coast Eagles will make him the first overall selection.

This year’s intake is considerably compromised, however, with four of Waterworth’s top prospects not available in the open pool due to being club-tied as academy graduates or father-son prospects.

Zeke Uwland — an Errol Gulden-like line-breaker sitting at no.2 in the rankings — will have a rival bid matched by the Gold Coast Suns, while no.5, the explosive and damaging Dylan Patterson, is an academy teammate of Uwland’s and is thus also Gold Coast-bound.

Brisbane Academy product Dan Annable is considered a top-three prospect and will be a tremendous long-term addition to the Lions’ star-studded midfield.

And then there’s Harry Dean — the foremost defensive prospect in this year’s class — who’ll follow in father Peter’s footsteps and don navy blue after potentially drawing a bid in the top five or six picks.

Calder Cannons ruck-forward Cooper Duff-Tytler is considered the number-two open-pool talent, flashing ‘unicorn’ potential in the Luke Jackson mould, standing at 200 centimetres. He is also tipped to become an Eagle, provided West Coast stands pat with the opening two selections.

After Duursma and Duff-Tytler, many consider all-time bolter Sullivan Robey to be the next-best cab off the rank, with the Eastern Ranges forward-midfielder coming from the clouds to ascend to top-10-pick status.

Waterworth believes Robey is the “biggest bolter in an AFL draft since Clayton Oliver (Pick 4 in 2015)”.

Hard-headed South Australian midfielder Dyson Sharp boasts leadership capabilities in addition to his ball-winning ability and cleanliness at the coalface, while versatile Victorian defender Xavier Taylor has drawn comparisons to Hawthorn’s Josh Weddle due to his tantalising two-way game while standing at 191 centimetres.

RELATED: Best draft prospects ranked 1-50 and AFL stars they play like

WHAT ARE THE BIG STORYLINES OF THE DRAFT?

When will the bids come? And how many will there be?

This year’s draft is considered by many to be the most compromised in history, with a litany of top prospects not available in the open pool as the northern and Next Generation academies continue to pay fruitful dividends.

It’s expected that West Coast and Richmond, who cumulatively hold the opening four picks of the draft, will do the majority of the early bidding as it pertains to upper-echelon club-tied talent Uwland, Dean, Patterson and Annable.

The Eagles are widely anticipated to make Duursma the natural first overall selection, but they may end up using their second selection to bid on both of Uwland and Dean before the Tigers get on the clock and likely make the Suns and Lions pay up for Patterson and Annable respectively.

Waterworth believes the highly-touted quartet are more likely than not to all be off the board after seven picks.

But the bidding will be far from over from there, with a host of Next Generation Academy products set to attract plenty of interest early in the order.

Sydney-tied duo Harry Kyle and Max King will receive rival bids, with Kyle potentially set to be the fifth club-tied name off the board in the middle of the first round.

Jai Murray (Gold Coast), Jack Ison (Carlton), Tylah Williams (West Coast Eagles) and Adam Sweid (Essendon) are among the other relevant academy names, with Waterworth predicting 10 bids among the draft’s first 30 selections.

Where will the trades come, and why?

Carlton is expected to trade its ninth and 11th selections in preparation for an earlier-than-anticipated rival bid for in-demand key defender Harry Dean.

The Eagles now appear more likely than not to take a swing at Dean at no.2 overall, with the Blues set to trade the no.9 pick to Essendon and the 11th choice to North Melbourne.

The Blues will receive two picks in the 20s from the Bombers and an early-second-rounder and a future second from the Roos in order to stockpile more draft points.

Which directions will Tigers, Bombers go?

What Richmond decides to do with its two top-five picks is an intriguing talking point, given that once the early bidding is done, there are multiple directions they could go.

The Tigers have been “consistently linked” with Eastern Ranges pair Xavier Taylor and Sullivan Robey, as well as Oakleigh Chargers’ Sam Grlj.

It’d be hard to go wrong with any of that trio, but list manager Blair Hartley and company could opt to take one young gun and trade the other choice for a future first-rounder.

But if the Tigers stand pat, North Adelaide midfielder-forward Sam Cumming is another name that shouldn’t be ruled out of contention.

As for the Bombers, Matt Rosa and his list crew are set to be armed with three picks inside the top 10 after a likely draft night trade with Carlton for the no.9 selection.

And while that ninth overall choice should ultimately drift out to no.13 come Wednesday night, Essendon is set to come away with three top prospects as it looks to inject more youth after blooding a record number of debutants this year.

Waterworth predicts hard-headed South Australian midfielder Dyson Sharp to be the club’s first pick at no.9 overall, with the Dons also very interested in Eastern Ranges’ Sullivan Robey — who should be off the board by then.

Essendon is justifiably keen on engine room talent, but defensive names such as Jacob Farrow and Xavier Taylor, and forwards Aidan Schubert and Lachy Dovaston, are others for supporters to keep an eye on.

Further, Essendon is also expected to match a late-first-round or early-second-round rival bid for exciting NGA talent Adam Sweid, as well as Hussein El Achkar later on.

WHAT IS THE AFL DRAFT 2025 ORDER?

See below, featuring the pick, club and then draft points attached to the selection.

Note: With live-trading, the draft order is subject to change.

ROUND 1

1. West Coast Eagles

2. West Coast Eagles (Oscar Allen compensation pick)

3. Richmond

4. Richmond (tied to North Melbourne)

5. Essendon

6. Essendon (tied to Melbourne)

7. Melbourne (received from Gold Coast Suns in Christian Petracca trade, originally tied to Port Adelaide)

8. Melbourne (received from Gold Coast Suns in Christian Petracca trade, Gold Coast Suns received from St Kilda in Sam Flanders trade)

9. Carlton (received from Hawthorn in pick swap, originally tied to Carlton)

10. Hawthorn (received from Carlton in pick swap, Carlton received as Tom De Koning compensation pick)

11. Carlton (received from Sydney in Charlie Curnow trade)

12. GWS Giants (received from Western Bulldogs in pick swap)

13. West Coast Eagles (received from Fremantle in Brandon Starcevich trade)

14. Western Bulldogs (received from GWS Giants in pick swap)

15. Gold Coast Suns

16. Adelaide Crows

17. Brisbane Lions (received from West Coast Eagles in Brandon Starcevich trade, originally tied to Hawthorn)

18. Gold Coast Suns (tied to Collingwood)

19. Geelong

20. Fremantle (received from Brisbane Lions in Brandon Starcevich trade)

21. Essendon (Sam Draper compensation pick)

22. Hawthorn (received from Carlton in pick swap, Carlton received as Jack Silvagni compensation pick)

23. Brisbane Lions (received from West Coast Eagles in Brandon Starcevich trade, West Coast Eagles received in AFL assistance package)

ROUND 2

24. Gold Coast Suns (received from Melbourne in Christian Petracca trade, Melbourne received from Fremantle in Judd McVee trade, Fremantle received from West Coast Eagles in Brandon Starcevich trade)

25. North Melbourne (tied to Richmond)

26. North Melbourne

27. Essendon

28. Gold Coast Suns (received from Melbourne in Christian Petracca trade)

29. Gold Coast Suns (received from Port Adelaide in Ben Ainsworth-Corey Durdin trade)

30. Essendon (tied to St Kilda)

31. Sydney Swans (received from Carlton in Charlie Curnow trade, Carlton received from Hawthorn in pick swap, originally tied to Carlton)

32. Sydney Swans

33. Western Bulldogs

34. West Coast Eagles (received from Fremantle in Brandon Starcevich trade)

35. GWS Giants

36. Gold Coast Suns

37. Melbourne (received from Gold Coast Suns in Christian Petracca trade, Gold Coast Suns received from Western Bulldogs in Connor Budarick trade, Western Bulldogs received from GWS Giants in pick swap, originally tied to Adelaide Crows)

38. Richmond (received from West Coast Eagles in Tylar Young trade, originally tied to Hawthorn)

39. Collingwood

40. Geelong

41. West Coast Eagles (received from Carlton in Campbell Chesser trade, originally tied to Brisbane Lions)

42. Sydney Swans (received from Carlton in Charlie Curnow trade, Carlton received from Hawthorn in pick swap, Hawthorn received from Melbourne in Changkuoth Jiath trade, Melbourne received as Charlie Spargo compensation pick)

43. Carlton (received from Hawthorn in pick swap, Hawthorn received as James Worpel compensation pick)

ROUND 3

44. Brisbane Lions (tied to West Coast Eagles)

45. Collingwood (received from Brisbane Lions in pick swap, Brisbane Lions received from Fremantle in Brandon Starcevich trade, originally tied to Richmond)

46. North Melbourne

47. Fremantle (received from Brisbane Lions in Brandon Starcevich trade, originally tied to Essendon)

48. Adelaide Crows (tied to Melbourne)

49. Port Adelaide

50. St Kilda

51. Brisbane Lions (received from Fremantle in Brandon Starcevich trade, Fremantle received from Carlton in Liam Reidy trade)

52. Gold Coast Suns (received from Sydney Swans in Malcolm Rosas jnr trade)

53. Western Bulldogs (received from West Coast Eagles in pick swap, West Coast Eagles received from Brisbane Lions in Brandon Starcevich trade, originally tied to Western Bulldogs)

54. Carlton (received from Fremantle in Liam Reidy trade)

55. Adelaide Crows (tied to GWS Giants)

56. Collingwood (received from Brisbane Lions in pick swap, originally tied to Gold Coast Suns)

57. Brisbane Lions (received from Collingwood in pick swap)

58. Collingwood (received from Melbourne in Brody Mihocek trade, originally tied to Brisbane Lions)

ROUND 4

59. Hawthorn (tied to West Coast Eagles)

60. Sydney Swans (received from Gold Coast Suns in Malcolm Rosas jnr trade, originally tied to Richmond)

61. Adelaide Crows (received from North Melbourne in Finnbar Maley trade)

62. St Kilda (tied to Essendon)

63. Melbourne

64. Fremantle (received from Carlton in Liam Reidy trade)

65. Melbourne (received from Collingwood in Brody Mihocek trade, originally tied to Western Bulldogs)

66. Hawthorn

67. Collingwood

AFL DRAFT VALUE INDEX POINTS VALUES

1. 3000

2. 2481

3. 2178

4. 1962

5. 1795

6. 1659

7. 1543

8. 1443

9. 1355

10. 1276

11. 1205

12. 1140

13. 1080

14. 1024

15. 973

16. 924

17. 879

18. 836

19. 796

20. 757

21. 721

22. 686

23. 653

24. 621

25. 590

26. 561

27. 533

28. 505

29. 479

30. 454

31. 429

32. 405

33. 382

34. 360

35. 338

36. 317

37. 297

38. 277

39. 257

40. 238

41. 220

42. 202

43. 184

44. 167

45. 150

46. 134

47. 118

48. 102

49. 86

50. 71

51. 57

52. 42

53. 28

54. 14

55. –

56. –

57. –

58. –

59. –

60. –

61. –

62. –

63. –

64. –

65. –

66. –

67. –

68. –

69. –

70. –

71. –

72. –

73. –

74. –