Trade watch on No.2 pick amid Bombers plot; Tigers eye club-shaping haul — Draft burning Qs

One of the most important events of the AFL calendar is almost upon us.

Watch Round 1 of the 2024 AFL Draft, WED 20 NOV | LIVE & Exclusive to Fox Footy on Kayo. New to Kayo? Get your first month for just $1. Limited time offer.

The 2024 Telstra AFL Draft is just around the corner with young guns ready to realise their footy dreams and AFL clubs ready to recruit the next pieces for their premiership tilts.

From start times to a bidding system explainer, plus the biggest burning questions to which clubs could take the top prospects, here’s everything you need to know in our 2024 AFL Draft Ultimate Guide!

WHEN IS THE 2024 AFL DRAFT AND WHAT TIME WILL IT START?

The 2024 AFL national draft will be held across two days: Wednesday November 20 and Thursday November 21, with coverage of both nights beginning at 7pm (AEDT).

The first round will be held on Wednesday November 20, with approximately 26 picks set to take place.

The rest of the draft will then take place on Thursday November 21, with clubs expecting between 63 and 72 picks to be used this year.

The only place to watch all the draft picks as they’re announced on TV is on Fox Footy, via Channel 504 on Foxtel or Kayo Sports.

You can also follow the AFL draft live on foxfooty.com.au with analysis of every pick and every club, along with Fox Footy’s social media channels.

The 2024 AFL pre-season draft and 2024 AFL rookie draft will be held online on Friday November 22 from 2pm (AEDT).

HOW DOES THE AFL DRAFT WORK?

All 18 clubs earn draft picks, which are based on the reverse finishing order from the previous AFL season. These picks can be traded up to one year in advance, while some picks are also given out as compensation for departed free agents.

On draft night, the teams select in order, adding the best young or mature-aged talent that aren’t already on AFL lists.

The only exceptions are when draft picks are traded on the night, or when bids on father-son and academy prospects that are linked to certain clubs are made. Those clubs can then choose to match those bids made by a rival club by using draft points.

HOW DOES THE AFL DRAFT BIDDING SYSTEM WORK?

The AFL has a Draft Value Index, a system where each draft pick is allocated a points value for the first 73 picks of the draft.

This allows clubs that have existing links to draft prospects, either through the academy or as father-sons, to ‘pay’ for these players by using multiple picks. It also means rival clubs can bid on these players.

For clubs to secure their linked talent, they must pay and match a bid by using the draft picks thy already hold. This is often done by bundling up multiple later picks to amass a cumulative value of a higher pick. If a club does not have enough picks at the time, they can enter draft deficit, which means that the value of their hand next year will decrease. If that club chooses not to match a bid, then the player will go to the club who made the bid.

Still struggling to understand? Take a look at how the Gold Coast Suns matched bids for four of their academy stars last year.

WHO ARE THE BEST PLAYERS IN THE DRAFT?

This draft is stacked, like really stacked.

In fact, it is so good, many are claiming it is the next ‘Super Draft’ – following the epic 2001 (think Hodge, Judd, Bartel and Ablett), and arguably the best crop since in 2018 (with Walsh, Rankine, Rozee and Butters).

The pick 1 race is as open as it has been in years. There isn’t a Harley Reid or a Jason Horne-Francis in 2024, but the talent across the first round is absolutely elite.

Leading the pick 1 discussions at the moment is GWV Rebels superstar Sam Lalor, who models his game on Dustin Martin and Jordan De Goey. Lalor is a powerful midfielder-forward who is also a strong leader, seen by some club recruiters as a future AFL captain.

But don’t discount Oakleigh Chargers midfielder Finn O’Sullivan, either. O’Sullivan hasn’t had the draft year he was hoping for given his injury issues, but that hasn’t stopped his name from coming up in these discussions. O’Sullivan, the cousin of Blues star Sam Walsh, is tough, quick and has proven he can match it with mature-aged players having acquitted himself well for Richmond’s VFL side.

His Chargers teammate, Jagga Smith, has had an extremely consistent draft year. Smith is an absolute ball magnet who has excelled at every level he has played this year.

Then there’s Brisbane father-son prospect Levi Ashcroft, who is arguably the best player in the pool. Ashcroft, the brother of Will and son of Marcus, has won three consecutive Coates Talent League premierships with the Sandringham Dragons and dominated the junior pathways for quite some time.

The top end of the draft is very midfield heavy. Outside of the above names, Dandenong Stingrays co-captain Harvey Langford has also impressed, while South Australian on-baller Sid Draper is ready to step right into an AFL best 23 from the get-go.

Eastern Ranges midfielder Josh Smillie models his game off Carlton captain Patrick Cripps and is the prototype of a modern-day midfielder, while Vic Metro jet Murphy Reid is slick with ball in hand.

There’s two academy stars who will also likely feature on night 1 of the draft in Leo Lombard and Isaac Kako. Lombard is tied to the Suns via their academy and is powerful, quick and explosive. Kako is Bombers-bound, and the small forward will quickly become a cult hero in the red and black. Midfielder Sam Marshall has an incredible work rate and is tied to Brisbane, but a bid is likely to come somewhere between picks 20 and 30.

While there’s plenty of talented midfielders in this year’s pool, there’s also some key position talent catching the eye.

Sandringham Dragons forward Harry Armstrong has thrived under the tutelage of Essendon champion Matthew Lloyd at Haileybury College, while Gippsland Power high-flyer Alix Tauru is another player to have caught the eye.

Bendigo Pioneers product Tobie Travaglia is another player well and truly in the first-round mix as a versatile defender, while his teammate Jobe Shanahan also has admirers after excelling when given an opportunity with Essendon’s VFL side earlier this year.

The Vic Country duo of small forward Joe Berry and midfielder Xavier Lindsay have also been invited to the first round of the draft, as have twins Jack and Matt Whitlock and West Australian midfielder Bo Allan.

Check back in on Sunday night to see foxfooty.com.au’s phantom draft.

WHAT ARE THE BIG STORYLINES FOR THE DRAFT?

Will the Roos trade pick 2?

A fascinating question heading into the first night of the draft on November 20 is whether the Roos will actually hold pick 2.

The Roos are reportedly open to trading pick 2, or their future first-round pick, if it nets them multiple first-round selections this year. North Melbourne currently possess pick 2 and 62 this year but are looking to get even more talented youth through their doors.

Richmond is seen as a potential partner for the deal given their incredible draft hand, possibly sending two first round picks North Melbourne’s way in exchange for that coveted number 2 selection. If that is the case, the Tigers would take pick 1 and 2 into the draft.

AFL Media’s Cal Twomey recently reported on Gettable that there had been discussions between the Roos and Crows about swapping picks 2 and 4 as well, with the Crows using future selections to satisfy North Melbourne’s demands.

The Roos have been strongly linked to Gippsland Power high-flyer Alix Tauru, but there is a world where he slides to the ladder stages of the top 10, meaning the Roos could split pick 2, and get their guy.

If they don’t trade pick 2, Tauru, plus one of Sam Lalor and Finn O’Sullivan would be in the mix for that selection.

What does Richmond’s mega draft bounty look like?

Richmond currently possesses a draft haul that hasn’t been seen since the expansion clubs entered the competition.

As it stands, the Tigers hold picks 1, 6, 10, 11, 18, 20, 23 and 24. That’s a third of the picks in the top 24 selections. If the Tigers get this right, they could be setting themselves up for the next golden era.

So, with all of these picks, what will they target?

The pick 1 race is still wide open, but it seems as though Vic Country jet Sam Lalor and Koroit native Finn O’Sullivan are the front runners there.

The Tigers have also been strongly linked to modern-day midfielder Josh Smillie, who tries to model his game on the likes of Patrick Cripps and Tom Green. They could also look to use pick 6 on a key position player, such as Sandringham Dragons forward Harry Armstrong or Gippsland Power high-flyer Alix Tauru. Could they pull the trigger on Jack Whitlock as early as pick 10 or 11?

There is a world where Armstrong slips to their pick 10 and 11, where a player like Vic Metro on-baller Murphy Reid or Vic Country small Joe Berry could also be in their sights.

Bendigo Pioneers duo Tobie Travaglia and Jobe Shanhan are other first-round prospects that would fit right in at Tigerland, while West Australian Bo Allan and excitement machine Taj Hotton would also bolster Adem Yze’s stocks.

Northern Knights hard-nut Jesse Dattoli is another player in the frame for their later first-round picks, as are Sandringham Dragons defender Harrison Oliver and South Australian ruck Alex Dodson.

Richmond list boss Blair Hartley certainly has his work cut out for him over the next week, but he also has the opportunity to lay the platform for the next Punt Road dynasty.

Will Essendon trade back into the first round?

The Bombers traded pick 9 to Melbourne during the trade period for the Dees’ future first round selection, as the Dons feared it would have been swallowed up if they had to match a bid for NGA prospect Isaac Kako.

The Dons acquired a host of later picks in the deal but are considering using Melbourne’s future first round pick to trade back into the top end of the draft this year, according to the Herald Sun’s Jay Clark.

The Dons are reportedly keen to draft a second gun talent in what is being labelled as a ‘Super Draft’ but would have to swing a deal live on draft night if they are to do that.

A bid for Kako is expected to come somewhere between picks 5 and 15, with Richmond, St Kilda and Port Adelaide seen as the strongest possibilities to make that bid.

It looks as though the Bombers will use four picks at this year’s draft and they could pair Kako with fellow NGA talent Jayden Nguyen, who played for the Calder Cannons this year.

The Matt Rosa list management era is in full swing, and all eyes will be on what levers he pulls, if any, on the first night of the draft.

When will bids come for father-son/academy stars?

There is a handful of young guns already tied to clubs.

A bid for Brisbane Lions father-son prospect Levi Ashcroft is likely to come in the top 5, although some club recruiters believe he is the best player in the pool.

Next in the mix is Gold Coast academy gun Leo Lombard, who is likely to attract a bid somewhere between pick 5-15. St Kilda and Richmond have both been linked as clubs who could place a bid. A bid for Essendon-tied small forward Isaac Kako is also expected to come within that range, with Richmond, St Kilda and Port Adelaide considered the main clubs there.

Sandringham Dragons midfielder Sam Marshall is Brisbane bound due to his academy ties, but it looks as though a bid will come post pick 20, potentially from the Swans, who have become notorious for bidding on rival prospects in years gone by. St Kilda have access to defensive duo Adrian Cole and Lennox Hoffmann, while the Eagles will draft their academy prospect Malakai Champion and Adelaide will take father-son Tyler Welsh. GWS have their sights on young academy ruck Logan Smith and don’t forget about Ben and Lucas Camporeale either, who are the sons of Carlton gun Scott, but they’re likely to be scooped up post pick 30.

Others that could be selected later in the draft include Jayden Nguyen (Essendon), Cody Anderson (Hawthorn), Riak Andrew (Melbourne) and Ricky Mentha (Melbourne).

Port Adelaide have nominated small forward Benny Barrett via their NGA, while Sydney also has links to academy defender Joel Cochran, who blitzed the 2km time trial at the National Combine. All signs point towards St Kilda giving father-son Elwood Peckett a go as a category-B rookie, while Fremantle has nominated Jaren Carr and the Roos have committed to River Stevens.

Who will be the steal of the draft?

It’s the question that all recruiters will be asking themselves – who will be a gem in the rough?

Players who have suffered injuries this year and therefore not been able to showcase their true potential fit this bill, as do guys who perhaps haven’t put together the under 18’s year they’d have hoped for but have still shown promising signs.

Vic Metro defender Luke Trainor, who won Metro the National Championships with a goal after the siren, is one player who fits the bill. Trainor was touted as a top 5 selection at varying stages during the season but seems more likely to slide into the 15-25 range now. The star defender suffered from concussion late in the Coates Talent League campaign and has also had a hip injury in recent times.

Trainor’s Sandringham Dragons teammate Taj Hotton is another in this discussion. Hotton suffered an ACL injury in May this year, putting a stop to his 2024 season. He had dominated at Coates Talent League level prior to the injury, averaging 28.7 disposals and 7.3 marks. He was looking like a top 10 pick prior to the injury, but now he’s likely to land later in the first round.

Dandenong Stingrays tall defender Noah Mraz played just three CTL games this year due to a navicular injury, which means he carries some level of risks for clubs. Having said that, a talented mobile tall in a midfield-heavy draft piques interest, even if recruiters haven’t seen much of him in 2024.

If you ask pick 1 fancy Sam Lalor, his GWV Rebels teammate Ollie Hannaford needs to be spoken about more. “His back end of the year, as soon as he went forward, he made an impact straight away. He’s fast, powerful, agile… on the big stage he lifted,” Lalor told foxfooty.com.au. Hannaford is likely an early second-round selection as it stands.

Elsewhere, Trinity Grammar jet Tom Gross has slid recently in mock drafts, but has proven his wares both as a midfielder and as a forward this year. Gross is also a quality character off the field, which means he’d also enhance an AFL club’s culture, too.

WHAT IS THE AFL DRAFT 2024 ORDER?

See below, featuring the pick, club and then the draft points attached to the selection.

Note: With live-trading, the draft order is subject to change.

ROUND ONE

1 Richmond

2 North Melbourne

3 Carlton (received from West Coast in three-way trade for Liam Baker)

4 Adelaide

5 Melbourne

6 Richmond (received from Gold Coast in Daniel Rioli trade)

7 St Kilda

8 St Kilda (Josh Battle compensation pick)

9 Melbourne (received from Essendon in pick swaps trade)

10 Richmond (received from Fremantle in Shai Bolton trade)

11 Richmond (received from Fremantle in Shai Bolton trade, tied to Collingwood)

12 West Coast (received from Carlton in three-way trade for Liam Baker)

13 Port Adelaide (received from Gold Coast in three-club mega trade, tied to Western Bulldogs)

14 Fremantle (received from Richmond in Shai Bolton trade, Rich received from Carlton in three-way trade for Liam Baker; Carl originally received from Hawthorn in pick swaps trade)

15 Greater Western Sydney

16 Greater Western Sydney (Harry Perryman compensation pick)

17 Western Bulldogs (received as part of four-club mega trade, originally held by Geelong)

18 Richmond (received from Fremantle in Shai Bolton trade, tied to Port Adelaide)

19 Sydney

20 Richmond (received from Brisbane in pick swaps trade)

21 Greater Western Sydney (Isaac Cumming compensation pick)

22 Sydney (North Melbourne assistance package selection)

23 Richmond (received from Gold Coast in Daniel Rioli trade, originally North Melbourne assistance package selection)

ROUND TWO

24 Richmond

25 Western Bulldogs (received from North Melbourne in Caleb Daniel trade)

26 West Coast

27 Brisbane (received from St Kilda in pick swaps trade; StK received from GWS in pick swap, originally tied to Adelaide)

28 Essendon (received from Melbourne in pick swaps trade; Melb received from Adelaide in Alex Neal-Bullen deal, originally tied to Melbourne)

29 Port Adelaide (received from Gold Coast in three-club mega trade)

30 Fremantle (tied to St Kilda)

31 Essendon

32 St Kilda (received from Brisbane in pick swaps trade; BL received from Richmond in pick swaps trade, originally tied to Fremantle)

33 Hawthorn (tied to Collingwood)

34 Brisbane (received from Carlton in pick swaps trade)

35 Western Bulldogs

36 Port Adelaide (received from Collingwood in three-club mega trade, tied to Hawthorn)

37 Greater Western Sydney

38 Carlton (received as part of four-club mega trade, originally held by Geelong)

39 Gold Coast (received from Port Adelaide in three-club mega trade)

40 Essendon (received from Melbourne in pick swaps trade; originally tied to Sydney)

41 Gold Coast (tied to Brisbane)

42 Brisbane (received from Richmond in pick swaps trade, originally Jack Graham compensation pick)

ROUND THREE

43 Brisbane (received from Richmond in pick swaps trade)

44 Sydney (received from North Melbourne in Luke Parker/Jacob Konstanty trade)

45 Geelong (received as part of four-club mega trade, StK received from Brisbane in pick swaps trade; BL received from Richmond in pick swaps trade, originally tied to West Coast)

46 Essendon (received from Melbourne in pick swaps trade; Melb received from Adelaide in pick swap trade)

47 St Kilda (tied to Melbourne)

48 Western Bulldogs (tied to Gold Coast)

49 Brisbane (received from Melbourne in Harry Sharp trade, tied to St Kilda)

50 Port Adelaide (received from Gold Coast in three-club mega trade, GC received from Carlton in Elijah Hollands deal, originally tied to Essendon)

51 Gold Coast (received from Richmond in Daniel Rioli trade, tied to Fremantle)

52 Collingwood

53 Essendon (received from Greater Western Sydney in Jake Stringer trade, tied to Carlton)

54 Essendon (received from Melbourne in pick swaps trade; originally tied to Western Bulldogs)

55 Collingwood (tied to Hawthorn)

56 Greater Western Sydney

57 Geelong

58 Brisbane (received from Collingwood in pick swaps trade, Coll received from Port Adelaide in three-club mega trade)

59 Sydney

60 Collingwood (received from Brisbane in pick swaps trade)

ROUND FOUR

61 Gold Coast (received from Richmond in Daniel Rioli trade)

62 North Melbourne

63 Carlton (received from West Coast in three-way trade for Liam Baker)

64 Adelaide

65 Essendon (received from Melbourne in pick swaps trade)

66 Collingwood (received from Brisbane in pick swaps trade, BL received from Carlton in pick swaps trade, originally tied to Gold Coast)

67 Fremantle (tied to St Kilda)

68 Carlton (received from West Coast in three-way trade for Liam Baker; WC received from North Melbourne in Jack Darling deal, originally tied to Essendon)

69 Carlton (tied to Fremantle)

70 Hawthorn (tied to Carlton)

71 Carlton (tied to Western Bulldogs)

72 West Coast (received from Carlton in three-way trade for Liam Baker; received from Brisbane in pick swaps trade, originally tied to Hawthorn)

73 Greater Western Sydney

74 Geelong

75 Hawthorn (tied to Sydney)

ROUND FIVE

76 North Melbourne

77 West Coast

78 Adelaide

79 Melbourne

80 St Kilda

81 Fremantle

82 Collingwood

83 Western Bulldogs

84 Geelong

85 Sydney

ROUND SIX

86 North Melbourne

87 West Coast

88 St Kilda

89 Fremantle

90 Western Bulldogs

91 Sydney

ROUND SEVEN

92 West Coast

2025 DRAFT PICKS TRADED (after 2024 trade period)

Adelaide Crows

IN: Round 3 (Melbourne), Round 3 (GWS), Round 4 (Melbourne)

OUT: Round 2 (GWS)

Brisbane Lions

IN: Round 3 (Essendon)

OUT: Round 2 (Carlton), Round 3 (Melbourne)

Carlton

IN: Round 2 (Brisbane)

OUT: Round 1 (Hawthorn), Round 2 (Hawthorn)

Collingwood

IN: Nil

OUT: Round 1 (Gold Coast)

Essendon

IN: Round 1 (Melbourne)

OUT: Round 3 (Melbourne)

Fremantle

IN: Round 3 (Richmond)

OUT: Nil

Geelong

IN: Nil

OUT: Nil

Gold Coast Suns

IN: Round 1 (Port Adelaide), Round 1 (Collingwood)

OUT: Nil

GWS Giants

IN: Round 2 (Adelaide)

OUT: Round 3 (Adelaide), Round 4 (Adelaide)

Hawthorn

IN: Round 1 (Carlton), Round 2 (Carlton), Round 4 (West Coast)

OUT: Round 1 (West Coast), Round 2 (West Coast), Round 3 (West Coast)

Melbourne

IN: Round 3 (Brisbane)

OUT: Round 1 (Essendon), Round 3 (Adelaide)

North Melbourne

IN: Nil

OUT: Nil

Port Adelaide

IN: Nil

OUT: Round 1 (Gold Coast)

Richmond

IN: Nil

OUT: Round 3 (Fremantle)

St Kilda

IN: Nil

OUT: Nil

Sydney Swans

IN: Nil

OUT: Nil

West Coast Eagles

IN: Round 1 (Hawthorn), Round 2 (Hawthorn), Round 3 (Hawthorn)

OUT: Round 4 (Hawthorn)

Western Bulldogs

IN: Nil

OUT: Nil

AFL DRAFT VALUE INDEX POINTS VALUES

Pick 1: 3000 points

Pick 2: 2517

Pick 3: 2234

Pick 4: 2034

Pick 5: 1878

Pick 6: 1751

Pick 7: 1644

Pick 8: 1551

Pick 9: 1469

Pick 10: 1395

Pick 11: 1329

Pick 12: 1268

Pick 13: 1212

Pick 14: 1161

Pick 15: 1112

Pick 16: 1067

Pick 17: 1025

Pick 18: 985

Pick 19: 948

Pick 20: 912

Pick 21: 878

Pick 22: 845

Pick 23: 815

Pick 24: 785

Pick 25: 756

Pick 26: 729

Pick 27: 703

Pick 28: 677

Pick 29: 653

Pick 30: 629

Pick 31: 606

Pick 32: 584

Pick 33: 563

Pick 34: 542

Pick 35: 522

Pick 36: 502

Pick 37: 483

Pick 38: 465

Pick 39: 446

Pick 40: 429

Pick 41: 412

Pick 42: 395

Pick 43: 378

Pick 44: 362

Pick 45: 347

Pick 46: 331

Pick 47: 316

Pick 48: 302

Pick 49: 287

Pick 50: 273

Pick 51: 259

Pick 52: 246

Pick 53: 233

Pick 54: 220

Pick 55: 207

Pick 56: 194

Pick 57: 182

Pick 58: 170

Pick 59: 158

Pick 60: 146

Pick 61: 135

Pick 62: 123

Pick 63: 112

Pick 64: 101

Pick 65: 90

Pick 66: 80

Pick 67: 69

Pick 68: 59

Pick 69: 49

Pick 70: 39

Pick 71: 29

Pick 72: 19

Pick 73: 9

Picks 74 and onwards: 0