And then, again, there were two.
Over 43 minutes of a treacherous Thailand Grand Prix on Sunday in Buriram, Francesco Bagnaia and Jorge Martin showed why this year’s MotoGP championship fight will be a head-to-head that’s the same as last year, yet different.
Same, as in the same two riders as 2023 will duel for glory over the final two rounds in Malaysia and Valencia. Different, because this time Martin is the hunted, not the hunter as he was 12 months ago.
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Bagnaia’s victory in the wet on Sunday – his ninth of a season where he’s never been more prolific – showed why he’s had the number 1 plate affixed to the front of his Ducati since November 2022. Martin’s second place – on a day where the series leader had everything to lose – was his 28th podium in 34 starts this season, showing his evolution.
Martin’s lead is now 17 points with 74 up for grabs in the final two rounds, and the best riders of the past two years mastering the first wet race in 12 months was fitting. With Marc Marquez crashing and remounting to finish 11th, and Enea Bastianini doing likewise and finishing 14th, both the six-time MotoGP world champion and Bagnaia’s factory Ducati teammate were mathematically eliminated from title contention.
Officially, it’s now Bagnaia vs. Martin, the rematch. Realistically, it’s been that for some time.
In a season where there are so many adjacent subplots – Bagnaia seeking to become one of just three riders in the past three decades along with Marquez, Mick Doohan and Valentino Rossi to take a hat-trick of titles, Martin looking to steal the number 1 plate from a Ducati factory that spurned him to take to his new address at Aprilia next year – the tension, that skyrocketed when the skies opened at Buriram and stayed at a steady boil for 26 hold-your-breath laps – will only ramp up at Sepang next Sunday.
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It’s a title fight that has been brewing for months, and could be settled in as little as seven days. More likely is that Valencia in mid-November will, for a third straight year, crown a champion.
It would be an appropriate denouement to a season that, at times, has made little sense with its twists and turns, Bagnaia’s repeatedly unusual profligacy, Martin’s atypically metronomic consistency. But it’s one that deserves a grand finale, and Thailand set the stage.
It’s now up to Martin to seal the deal, or Bagnaia to dig deeper than he ever has to keep what he’s worked so hard to earn.
BAGNAIA BREAKS NEW GROUND TO STAY IN THE FIGHT
Bagnaia’s victory on Sunday in Thailand didn’t just confirm his most prolific season; the Italian’s success was his first Grand Prix win in wet conditions. It was the first rain-hit Grand Prix since the Japanese GP at Motegi in October 2023, and for Bagnaia to master it with so much on the line made this victory worth more than 25 world championship points.
After being no match for Martin across the Australian Grand Prix a week previously, Bagnaia took pole in Buriram after Martin crashed in Q2, but the Spaniard bulled his way past Bagnaia in Saturday’s sprint race and demoted him to third as Bagnaia’s teammate Enea Bastianini won.
Martin again got the holeshot on Sunday and led for the first five laps, but Bagnaia – who went into a long debrief with his team in the three hours between Sunday’s 10-minute warm-up session and the race – knew he’d have a chance to respond.
“It was a day to make the difference and luckily, we did it,” he said.
“I want to dedicate this victory to my team because after the morning [warm-up], we just spoke to understand what to do to improve because I was struggling a lot on braking.
“It wasn’t an easy race, it was very long and stressful. As soon as I started, I saw that my feeling was very good and I saw Jorge pushing a lot, but I just decided to wait two more laps to make sure the rear [tyre] was more ready and when it was, I just tried to catch him back.”
Bagnaia’s battle soon became one with Phillip Island winner Marc Marquez, the Gresini Ducati rider twice ambushing the reigning world champion at the final corner only for Bagnaia to instantly respond.
After Martin dropped back soon after he ran wide at turn three on lap five and relinquished the lead, Bagnaia was hopeful the six-time MotoGP champion could finish second and take some more points away from Martin, but felt the pace the pair were running was too much for the conditions, which was proved correct when Marquez crashed out of second place at turn eight on lap 14.
“The lap he crashed, we were two-tenths [of a second] faster by sector three so it was an incredible lap already, the pace was super strong,” Bagnaia said.
“It was risky today, but it was the only way to score points. We just gained five points [over Martin], but they are super important right now.”
Asked if finishing behind Martin on Saturday – which mathematically meant that he could win every race from here on in and still not win the title if Martin finished second each time – made Sunday a must-win, Bagnaia didn’t hesitate.
“Absolutely,” he said, pointing to a hole in his CV that Sunday’s victory finally closed.
“In terms of the championship, not too much – but in terms of confidence, the mental side, it was very important. It’s a good day for us, for everything.
“I always crashed [in the rain] or I always was not fast enough, two years ago [in Thailand] I was fighting for the win but I arrived two seconds behind the leader. Today, from the start I believed a lot on trying to do it, and it was the best time. I’m improving on wet, after 20 years of racing …”.
MARTIN: MARQUEZ ACCIDENT SAVED ME
From third on the grid, Martin clearly decided the best form of defence for his championship advantage was to ferociously attack on Sunday, blazing into the lead at the first corner and taking off as the rest of the field slithered around on a gripless surface and struggled to see in the spray.
While running deep into the third corner on lap five tossed away that advantage, the Pramac Ducati rider said afterwards that being behind Marquez helped him finish the race, as his compatriot’s crash contributed to him rescuing his own at turn eight, where several riders fell as rivulets of water made the track extra treacherous.
“The beginning was super good,” Martin said of his getaway and early advantage.
“But straight away I started to see that the feeling wasn’t the feeling I had [in Sunday warm-up] … at some point I saw they [Marquez and Bagnaia] had something else. I tried to stay close to them [but] I had a lot of moments, I was always really close to crash so I was always ready to save it.
“I saw Marc lose the front so I was prepared to lose the front also, so that’s why I save it. Without Marc in front of me, I think I will have crashed. I was able to anticipate a bit.”
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Martin has won nine races – three Grands Prix and six sprints – this year to Bagnaia’s 15 (nine Grands Prix and six sprints), but has a significant advantage coming into the final four races because of his consistency, Sunday’s result the 15th time this year he’s finished in second place.
Maintaining an attacking mentality brings out his best while sidelining thoughts of what his advantage could lead to in the coming weeks, he feels.
“I felt the tension six or seven races ago,” Martin said.
“I try to learn from every situation, I think this weekend I learned something more. I have a lot of confidence with how I raced yesterday, this is my riding style. This is what I want to bring into Malaysia, because this is what took me here.
“Trust me, it was a really long race. The last few laps, I was thinking ‘f**k, I just want it to be in dry’, I thought in dry [conditions] I had something more than Pecco [Bagnaia]. He was super strong today, he’s a great champion. He’s not a three-time world champion because of nothing. I tried to give his pace, so just losing three points is a really good weekend. For me, it’s a pleasure to be at this part of the championship battling with him.”
MILLER CALM AFTER PODIUM NEAR-MISS
You’d have got long odds on Jack Miller rounding out Sunday’s rostrum with Bagnaia and Martin based on the KTM rider’s season to date and given he qualified in 15th place, but the Australian again showed why he’s renowned as one of the sport’s most gifted wet-weather riders with a fifth place that equalled his best result of 2024 from round two in March.
It could have so easily been so much better, too.
Without a podium since the Spanish Grand Prix of 2023, Miller was inspired on Sunday in Buriram, storming up to fourth in the worst of the conditions before inheriting third place when Marquez went down, having passed KTM teammate Brad Binder along the way.
From laps 14-24, Miller held down third place until his front tyre, hanging on after being punished as he pushed through the pack early, started to become even more problematic; GasGas rookie Pedro Acosta passed Miller for third with two laps to go after the pair had a fierce fight that would have had KTM’s senior management covering their eyes, and Ducati’s Fabio Di Giannantonio stole fourth from Miller on the last lap of the race.
Despite seeing an inherited podium slip through his fingers just minutes from the end of the race, Miller’s mood was more calm than cantankerous despite his obvious disappointment.
“I really wanted that podium today,” he said.
“The first couple of laps were pretty hairy … the spray was pretty hectic and I was just trying to avoid that, and then there was a lot of carnage as well, a lot of blokes losing the rear [tyre] and having moments so the pack split a bit.
“I was able to find my way through and settle in a bit in fourth, and then when Marc threw it down, in third. But I was really suffering with the front-end from the mid-point of the race, after 10 laps … cooked the front tyre. With about three laps to go I had nothing left in the centre of the tyre and I was getting hunted … I tried to throw everything I could at it to stay on the podium, but it wasn’t to be. But we rode a good race, the pace was really good and consistent.”
With wet races being few and far between in recent seasons – something Miller has lamented as inclement conditions typically see him shine – the 29-year-old relished the chance to think on his feet and make the most of a rare opportunity to be at the front of the field.
“You’ve just got to try to get on with it and feel what’s happening beneath you,” he said of the conditions.
“That’s the beauty of these MotoGP bikes nowadays with these carbon brakes, you’re not putting a stupid amount of pressure on the brake lever, you’re kind of playing with it and playing with the grip so you get a really good feeling of what’s happening on the bike in the wet.
“I enjoy it. With whatever grip is there, you have to ride to the level of the grip depending on how much you’ve got. It’s just fun.”
JAPANESE STAR SALUTES, TEEN SNAPS ROSSI’S RECORD
The MotoGP title remains the only one of the three world championship crowns up for grabs with two rounds remaining, with MotoGP-bound Ai Ogura sealing the intermediate-class world championship by finishing second in Buriram to become Japan’s first world champion since 2009, when Hiroshi Aoyama won the now-defunct 250cc class.
The 23-year-old Ogura, who will step up to MotoGP with the Trackhouse Aprilia team next season, won three Grands Prix among eight podiums to take the title with ease, nearest rival Aron Canet 60 points adrift after the Spaniard beat Ogura in a rain-shortened race on Sunday.
In Moto3, world champion David Alonso was victorious for the 12th time in 18 rounds this season to break Valentino Rossi’s 27-year record for most wins in a lightweight class season, the Colombian winning his fifth race in a row in Thailand on Sunday.
Of the four Australians in action in the MotoGP feeder classes on Sunday, Moto3 rider Joel Kelso was the only one to score points, the Darwin 21-year-old finishing seventh after starting from his maiden world championship pole position.
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