Verdict on Pies gamble; key to stopping insane finals run as rival eyes 62-yr first — Blowtorch

Two rivals collide as one looks to claim a 62-year first and shut down arguably the hottest player in the competition.

Plus Collingwood’s big selection gamble … and is a star disrespected?

Every club’s burning question ahead of the preliminary finals, as well as the commentators for every Fox Footy game, in our ultimate weekly preview: The Blowtorch!

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AFL FINALS WEEK 3

GEELONG v HAWTHORN

Friday September 19, 7.40pm at the MCG

How to watch on Fox Footy: From 6.30pm on Channel 504, with Garry Lyon, Jonathan Brown, Tom Hawkins, Jordan Lewis, Anthony Hudson, Gerard Whateley, Jason Dunstall, Cameron Mooney, Ben Dixon & Jon Ralph

Cats’ burning question: Can they improve shaky prelim record, claim 62-year first?

We all think of flag favourite Geelong as such a successful club in a golden run under Chris Scott. But be that as it may, preliminary final weekend hasn’t been overly kind to the Cats for the most part. Friday night marks the Cats’ 10th preliminary final with Scott at the helm — including their eighth in the past 10 seasons. But Scott has a 3-6 record in prelims in a hump Geelong has struggled to get past at times, while skipper Patrick Dangerfield is 2-6 in grand final qualifiers. It includes the Cats falling in last year’s prelim to Brisbane in memory that would still be fresh in their minds as they prepare to take on one of their all-time rivals in one of the most anticipated September showdowns in recent memory. And it’s been 62 years since Geelong has conquered Hawthorn in a knockout final. “It illustrates for all the wining that’s done, just how hard it is to get through this last step,” AFL 360 co-host Gerard Whateley said. “They a profoundly better team than they were this time last year. They’re favoured to win the flag from here, but to do that, you’re going to have to beat your arch nemesis. Keep in mind, Geelong hasn’t beaten Hawthorn in a knockout final since the 1963 Grand Final — the wins they’ve had have been in qualifying finals — not when it’s been all on the line. That will live with a few in the stands, I reckon.”

Hawks’ burning question: Can ‘new Mr September’ be stopped?

Hawthorn is humming going into Friday night’s preliminary final after an emphatic win over Adelaide on the road. And Jai Newcombe has had a big say on the Hawks’ September fortunes so far. In fact, Newcombe has been the No. 1 rated player in each of Hawthorn’s last four finals in an insane run to really level up his reputation as the “new Mr September” — as coined by Tigers champion Jack Riewoldt. “The beginning of this game was through the roof and Jai Newcombe’s numbers and the way he was able to jump into the contest and set Hawthorn alight was first class … he’s a brilliant player, a low anxiety player. He doesn’t waste any energy or get too overawed and he goes and does his job,” former Collingwood coach Nathan Buckley told Fox Footy’s On the Couch. So can he be stopped? Newcombe is set to be closely checked this weekend, with Irish pair Oisin Mullin and Mark O’Connor or Tom Atkins likely to try and clamp the Hawks star. The Cats have options, but Mullin is likely to draw the assignment after taking several big scalps this year including locking down Hugh McCluggage in the qualifying final. Hawks great Jordan Lewis thinks it’d be “an arrogant move” if Geelong didn’t send someone to Newcombe, suggesting Mullin would get the gig. “I think (Newcombe) would be watching tape on all three and watching Mullin. You’ve got to make a two v one and make it an absolute fight, but what you can’t do if Mullin goes to you is just try and beat him one-on-one. He’s proven himself to be too good, he will not leave your side. If it’s not a two v one, go and block for someone, it is the easiest thing you can do if you’re tagged,” Lewis said.

COLLINGWOOD v BRISBANE

Saturday September 20, 5.15pm at the MCG

How to watch on Fox Footy: From 4pm on Channel 504, with Sarah Jones, Jason Dunstall, Jonathan Brown, Nathan Buckley, Dwayne Russell, Mark Howard, Jack Riewoldt, David King, Alastair Lynch, Brad Johnson & Jon Ralph

Magpies’ burning question: Should they ‘roll the dice’ on Bobby Hill?

It’s the question that’s been hovering over Craig McRae and company over the past fortnight and arguably the most fascinating selection call this finals series. While Jeremy Howe looks likely to be recalled after an adductor injury, Hill’s return from personal issues is less certain. Multiple reports have suggested the Pies won’t pick the 2023 Norm Smith medallist, who’s played just half an AFL game in three months but been back training over the past fortnight. You sense Lions fans would be happy to not see Hill out there given that performance in the 2023 performance might still give them some nightmares. Premiership-winning greats Jordan Lewis and Jonathan Brown both think Collingwood shouldn’t pick Hill, with Lewis saying “culture overrides talent.” But former Magpies coach Nathan Buckley suggested the electric forward should at least be considered as the sub in a ‘tempting’ move. Tigers champion Jack Riewoldt thinks the Magpies should select Hill. “I think you pick your best team. I reckon you roll the dice on him as the sub,” he said on Fox Footy’s On the Couch.

Lions’ burning question: Is ‘proven finals performer’ disrespected?

The Lions have no Lachie Neale right now. But Will Ashcroft continues to get done it on the big stage. And four-time premiership Hawk thinks his dominant performance in Brisbane’s semi-final win over Gold Coast was a “reminder” to the competition to ‘not sleep’ on him as the Lions surged on in their quest for back-to-back flags. It made Ashcroft just the second player in Lions history to record 25 plus disposals, 10 plus score involvements and two plus goals in a final. The 2024 Norm Smith medallist’s track record in September is starting to seriously stack rack up — Rated No. 1 (2024 Grand Final v Sydney), No. 4 (2025 Qualifying Final v Geelong) and No. 1 (2025 Semi-Final v Gold Coast) in his last three finals respectively. And it’d be remiss to not point out he missed the 2023 Grand Final against Collingwood through injury. “I just wonder about his attitude, a lot gets spoken about Hugh McCluggage and Lachie Neale. He looks like a pretty brash sort of kid, I wonder if he sits back and goes: ‘Hey, I’ve won a Norm Smith Medal, I’m a proven finals performer already’,” Lewis said on Fox Footy’s On the Couch. “I just think it was a timely reminder of: ‘Hey, we might have lost a dual Brownlow medallist and an All-Australian, A-grade player. But don’t sleep on me’.”