Social democratic parties in Western Europe have experienced a decline in electoral support over the last two decades, yet they have also attracted increased support from women. Drawing on a new study, Orit Kedar, Odelia Oshri and Lotem Halevy explain why the rise of far-right parties helps explain these competing trends.
Social democratic parties in Western Europe have experienced a clear decline in support over the last two decades. Yet recent decades have also seen these parties attract increased support from women. Fifty years ago, more men voted for social democratic parties than women, but today, the opposite is true.
In a new study, we seek to explain this phenomenon by focusing on rising support for far-right parties. We draw on the well-established fact that such parties enjoy the support of manual workers.
Compared to workers whose livelihoods depend on communication skills, manual workers are more vulnerable to immigration and trade. It is easier for immigrants to compete for manual jobs and for these jobs to be offshored. This competition puts downward pressure on salaries and increases the risk of job loss, leading manual workers, a category in which men are overrepresented (see Figure 1), to turn to far-right parties that present themselves as guardians of their interests.
Figure 1: Predicted probability of support for far-right parties by sector and gender
Note: Data from the European Social Survey (2002-2020). Sectors are organised in descending order of communication skill dexterity. The bars and the numbers on top of them indicate the percentage of male workers in each sector. The figure highlights two key points: first, that men are overrepresented in manual sectors (sectors 7, 8); and second, that high manual (communication) skills within a sector correlate with an increased tendency to support far-right parties. For more information, see the accompanying paper in European Union Politics.
We analyse public opinion data in 18 democracies over five decades (1970-2020), along with information about the type of skill dexterities sectors and jobs require. Our analysis shows (Figure 2a) that male manual workers (red solid line) have withdrawn their support for social democratic parties at a rate greater than the general population (light-grey dotted line). We also show that they have increased their support for the far right (Figure 2b).
Figure 2: Support for social democratic parties and the far right
Note: Figure (a) shows the rate of support for social democratic parties (SDPs) while figure (b) shows support for far-right parties among men holding manual jobs (solid line), women holding manual jobs (dashed) and the general population (dotted).
This secular change, combined with the increase in support among women for social democratic parties, explains why the gender gap in support for these parties has reversed in the last fifty years, with more women now supporting social democratic parties than men.
Yet the gender gap in support for social democratic parties varies both over time and across countries. In the next step of our analysis, we link this gender gap to party positions and the gender segregation of the manual labour market. We examine how the combination of these two factors affects the gender gap in support for social democratic parties.
The positions of social democratic parties and far-right parties on the economy vary both across countries and over time. Some social democratic parties have shifted their positions from classic support for redistribution to more middle-ground, market-oriented, centrist, or “Third Way” policies. Others have focused on cultural and identity issues, turning to educated middle class voters.
Similarly, some far-right parties are explicitly market oriented, while others have been able to attract working class voters with middle-of-the-road policies. Additionally, although dominated by men in almost all contexts, the manual labour market varies in the degree of male domination across contexts.
We find the economic positions taken by social democratic and far-right parties play a crucial role. In places where manual sectors are highly male dominated, a moderately large shift by a social democratic party to a more centrist economic position is associated with a decline of eight percentage points in the gender gap in support for that party. This shift occurs only if a viable far-right party is on the ballot.
Similarly, when social democratic parties and far-right parties take significantly different economic positions, higher male presence in manual sectors correlates with greater male support for social democratic parties. However, as the economic policies of social democratic parties and far-right parties converge, higher male presence in manual sectors no longer translates into greater male support for social democratic parties compared to women.
The realignment of the vote along occupational and gender lines sheds light on the changing composition of the economic centre-left and speaks to recent debates in the literature about groups that have withdrawn their support for it. Our study highlights how party positions influence these shifts and offers insights into the ability of political parties to shape realignment processes in European multiparty systems.
For more information, see the authors’ accompanying paper at European Union Politics
Note: This article gives the views of the authors, not the position of EUROPP – European Politics and Policy or the London School of Economics. Featured image credit: PES Communications (CC BY-NC-SA 2.0)
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