A grand coalition between the CDU/CSU and SPD appears the most likely outcome following Germany’s election. But what does the result mean for Europe? Drawing on original expert data, Ann-Kathrin Reinl and Stefan Wallaschek highlight disagreements between the two coalition partners over EU social and defence policies as potential sticking points.
After the German federal election, two likely coalitions emerged. The first is a “grand coalition” between the SPD (16.4%) and CDU/CSU (28.5%), holding a narrow Bundestag majority (328 of 630 seats). This coalition is familiar to voters and was the most favoured option before the election.
A second, less likely scenario is a CDU/CSU-SPD-Green (“Kenya”) coalition, forming an oversized majority. While such a coalition would provide a stronger mandate to push through policy initiatives, it would also require sharing more ministries and political responsibilities – something the CDU/CSU would likely avoid. A CDU/CSU-coalition with the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) remains theoretically possible, but CDU leader Friedrich Merz has firmly ruled it out.
A return of the German engine in Brussels?
The previous “traffic light coalition”, led by SPD Chancellor Olaf Scholz with the Greens and FDP, pursued ambitious but often divergent visions for the EU. While the SPD and Greens pushed for deeper integration, the FDP remained cautious. These tensions, evident in the coalition agreement, became clearer when disagreements between the three parties resulted in Germany frequently delaying or abstaining from decisions made in Brussels – a problem dubbed the “German vote”.
During the electoral campaign, Friedrich Merz criticised the government for abstaining from key votes, creating uncertainty among member states. He promised a more assertive EU stance. Yet, the CDU/CSU’s recently proposed “five point plan” on migration, which includes an entry ban for asylum seekers and permanent national border controls, has been widely condemned as violating EU law. Thus, whether a CDU-led government will revive Germany’s role in EU integration remains uncertain. Its EU policy will also depend on the stance of its coalition partner(s).
The Open Expert Survey 2025
For the 2025 German federal election, an expert survey – the Open Expert Survey (OES2025) – was conducted for the second time following its initial introduction in 2021. Political scientists were invited to contribute questions on the programmatic positioning of parties, with a total of 131 experts completing the survey. The survey includes several items related to European integration and offers some important insights into how the next German government could approach European issues.
Figure 1 illustrates the positions of all parties represented in the newly elected German Bundestag on whether the EU should be granted more competences in the future. The AfD is the party most opposed, while the Greens are the strongest advocates. The potential CDU/CSU-SPD coalition holds a similar stance, suggesting continuity in Germany’s EU policy with limited efforts towards deeper integration. The low profile of European affairs in the electoral campaign further highlights the prospective grand coalition’s reluctance to push for an ambitious EU vision.
Figure 1: Political parties’ positioning on the EU’s competences
Source: Open Expert Survey (OES2025)
Beyond the parties’ general stance on EU integration, two key policy areas will be particularly decisive in the coming years: internal redistribution and external security. Figure 2 illustrates these dimensions: the y-axis reflects domestic vs EU-level resource allocation (internal redistribution), while the x-axis represents support for a common EU security and defence policy vs national sovereignty in this area (external security).
Figure 2: Political parties’ positioning on deeper EU integration
Source: Open Expert Survey (OES2025)
On internal redistribution, the SPD supports EU-wide resource sharing, though less than the Greens or Left Party. The CDU and CSU, on the other hand, prioritise a stronger national focus, favouring domestic allocation of resources over EU-level redistribution. These differences could limit Germany’s willingness to push for deeper EU-wide social integration.
When it comes to external security, the SPD and CDU/CSU broadly align on the need to strengthen EU security and defence cooperation. However, whether this relatively cautious push for deeper EU engagement is sufficient to address current international security challenges remains uncertain.
Notably, the two potential coalition partners diverge on one key foreign policy issue: while the SPD has shown reluctance toward expanding military support for Ukraine, the CDU/CSU advocates for stronger measures, such as deploying Taurus missiles and advancing an EU security strategy – a stance emphasised during the first televised debate between Scholz and Merz.
Additionally, disagreements over the future of the debt brake and the financing of defence spending could turn security policy into a major obstacle during coalition negotiations, potentially impacting pivotal ministries such as defence, foreign affairs and finance.
Implications for Brussels
In summary, a new German government formed by the CDU/CSU and SPD could have significant implications for the EU’s future. Both parties modestly support deeper integration and a common security and defence policy, likely reducing internal divisions compared to the traffic light coalition, where the “German vote” often stalled EU-wide decisions. However, key EU-related differences remain – most notably the CDU/CSU’s reluctance to advance the EU’s social dimension.
In addition, with Merz being the new Chancellor, the European People’s Party (EPP) will increase its presence in the EU. It already holds key EU positions – with Ursula von der Leyen as Commission President – and 12 of 27 heads of government in the European Council are now in the EPP. It is also the largest group in the European Parliament, which will likely lead to weaker climate policies and tighter asylum and migration policies.
Amid Donald Trump’s presidency and Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine, EU security will demand a coordinated response. In this, the EU will rely more than ever on strong, coherent leadership from the next German government.
Note: This article gives the views of the authors, not the position of EUROPP – European Politics and Policy or the London School of Economics. Featured image credit: penofoto / Shutterstock.com
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