The NBA playoff race has gone down to the final day of the regular season, with the 20 postseason teams known but almost no seeds locked in.
So who’ll avoid Boston in the East? And who’ll claim top spot in a wild West race?
Here’s what every team needs and wants to happen overnight, with games to be played in two sets – the East from 3am AEST, and the West from 5:30am AEST.
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EASTERN CONFERENCE
Schedule (from 3am AEST)
Wizards at Celtics
Hornets at Cavaliers
Hawks at Pacers
Raptors at Heat
Bulls at Knicks
Bucks at Magic
Nets at 76ers
Standings
1. Celtics (63-18)
2. Bucks (49-32)
3. Knicks (49-32)
4. Cavaliers (48-33)
5. Magic (46-35)
6. Pacers (46-35)
7. 76ers (46-35)
8. Heat (45-36)
9. Bulls (39-42)
10. Hawks (36-55)
The important races…
No.2 seed, and avoiding the Celtics
Milwaukee has coughed up its lead for the No.2 spot, and could yet fall the way into fourth where they’d be in line for a horror semi finals clash with Boston.
The Bucks will be No.2 if they beat Orlando but will otherwise need losses by New York (vs Chicago) and Cleveland (vs Charlotte) to hold their place.
The Knicks, with a one-win edge, are best placed to take advantage of a Magic victory. But a Milwaukee victory locks them into third, so they would at least avoid Boston until the conference finals.
The absurd No.5 and No.6 fight
Things get really crazy when you look at the four teams split by just one win in the middle of the pack – Orlando (vs Milwaukee), Indiana (vs Atlanta), Philadelphia (vs Brooklyn) or Miami (vs Toronto).
The Magic can secure their spot in either fifth or sixth with a win over the Bucks, but a loss without another few upsets would send them tumbling into the play-in.
The Pacers are also locked into the top six with a win, while the Sixers need a win plus most importantly an Orlando loss to avoid the play-in.
Miami is very likely to finish eighth, and be at risk of facing Boston in the first round, needing a win plus at least one loss for a team above them. They can finish fifth if the Magic, Pacers and 76ers all lose.
EASTERN CONFERENCE PROJECTED PLAYOFF BRACKET (Before final day games)
Play-in tournament
No. 8 Heat at No. 7 76ers (April 17)
No. 10 Hawks at No. 9 Bulls (April 18)
Winner 9/10 at loser 7/8 (April 20)
First round
No. 1 Celtics vs. No. 8 seed (76ers/Heat/Bulls/Hawks)
No. 2 Bucks vs. No. 7 seed (76ers/Heat)
No. 3 Knicks vs. No. 6 Pacers
No. 4 Cavaliers vs. No. 5 Magic
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WESTERN CONFERENCE
Schedule (from 5:30am AEST)
Nuggets at Grizzlies
Suns at Timberwolves
Lakers at Pelicans
Mavericks at Thunder
Pistons at Spurs
Jazz at Warriors
Rockets at Clippers
Trail Blazers at Kings
Standings
1. Thunder (56-25)
2. Timberwolves (56-25)
3. Nuggets (56-25)
4. Clippers (51-30)
5. Mavericks (50-31)
6. Pelicans (49-32)
7. Suns (48-33)
8. Lakers (46-35)
9. Kings (45-36)
10. Warriors (45-36)
The important races…
No.1 seed
The Thunder, Timberwolves and Nuggets are all tied at 56-25 – the first time in NBA history three teams are tied for the No.1 seed heading into the final day.
Oklahoma City has the advantage with more scenarios, based on the three teams’ respective results, in which they can finish on top of the conference.
A Thunder win over the Mavericks will give them the No.1 seed unless Denver loses to Memphis while Minnesota beats Phoenix.
If all three win or all three lose, the Thunder will be No.1, the Timberwolves No.2 and the Nuggets No.3.
No.6 seed
The race for the last non-play-in spot is between New Orleans and Phoenix, with the Suns needing a win over Minnesota plus a Pelicans loss to the Lakers to flip the order.
The play-in
Whichever team of the Pelicans and Suns misses the sixth seed will instead host the No.7-No.8 play-in game, and given we have no clue how the race for No.1 will finish – the Nuggets are No.3 as it stands – it might not be so bad to drop into the play-in.
If the Lakers beat New Orleans, they’ll ensure they play in the 7-8 game (and potentially play New Orleans again), but if they lose they could fall all the way to 10th.
Sacramento (vs Portland) is better placed to catch the Lakers, with Golden State (vs Utah) needing a win plus losses by the Lakers and Kings to avoid the 9-10 game.
WESTERN CONFERENCE PROJECTED PLAYOFF BRACKET (Before final day games)
Play-in tournament
No. 8 Lakers at No. 7 Suns (April 16)
No. 10 Warriors at No. 9 Kings (April 17)
Winner 9/10 at loser 7/8 (April 19)
First round
No. 1 Thunder vs. No. 8 seed (Suns/Lakers/Kings/Warriors)
No. 2 Timberwolves vs. No. 7 seed (Suns/Lakers)
No. 3 Nuggets vs. No. 6 Pelicans
No. 4 Clippers vs. No. 5 Mavericks
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