The 2025–26 MVP race will be decided on the final round of the season, with Bryce Cotton and Kendric Davis locked in a genuine photo finish. Opinion is split across the league.
Adelaide head coach Mike Wells has been emphatic, declaring “the MVP race is over” and backing his star guard to claim the honour. Sydney coach Brian Goorjian, meanwhile, sees it differently, saying Davis “is definitely in the mix and he’s definitely special”.
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So what does history tell us, and do the numbers point to a clear winner? A closer look suggests the answer is anything but simple.
COTTON CHASING HISTORY
Cotton is aiming for a third straight MVP, which would give him six for his career and move him within one of Andrew Gaze’s longstanding record of seven.
In each of the past two seasons he has separated himself in voting:
2023–24 voting
Bryce Cotton (Perth): 118
Chris Goulding (Melbourne): 53
Parker Jackson-Cartwright (New Zealand): 50
2024–25 voting
Bryce Cotton (Perth): 119
Kendric Davis (Adelaide): 82
Matt Hurt (S.E Melbourne): 65
Davis pushed him close last season, but Cotton’s campaign proved decisive. This year, Davis has lifted again, while Cotton has responded with yet another elite season.
STAT DEEP DIVE
Both the Sydney Kings and Adelaide 36ers sit atop the ladder at 23-9, separated only by percentage, which places even greater weight on individual impact.
Below is the core, basic statistics before we get into the advanced metrics.
Stats for the season:
Bryce Cotton: 32 GP | 37.9 MPG | 25.7 PPG | 3.6 RPG | 7.6 APG | 1.8 SPG | 2.8 TOV | 43.8% FG
Kendric Davis: 32 GP | 31.7 MPG | 24.2 PPG | 4.0 RPG | 6.7 APG | 1.1 SPG | 1.8 TOV | 46.5% FG
Stats between rounds 1-11:
Bryce Cotton: 16 GP | 36.5 MPG | 26.3 PPG | 3.1 RPG | 7.3 APG | 2.2 SPG | 2.6 TOV | 45.3% FG
Kendric Davis: 14 GP | 31.7 MPG | 22.1 PPG | 4.1 RPG | 4.9 APG | 0.9 SPG | 1.6 TOV | 41.7% FG
Stats between rounds 12-22:
Bryce Cotton: 16 GP | 39.3 MPG | 25.1 PPG | 4.1 RPG | 7.9 APG | 1.4 SPG | 3.1 TOV | 42.4% FG
Kendric Davis: 18 GP | 31.7 MPG | 25.9 PPG | 3.9 RPG | 8.1 APG | 1.2 SPG | 2.0 TOV | 50.3% FG
Side-by-side, the numbers are strikingly close. One clear difference is workload, with Davis playing 6.2 fewer minutes per game than Cotton. Even so, Cotton’s campaign stands among the most remarkable the league has seen.
He has surpassed the benchmark he set in his celebrated 2020-21 MVP season, when he posted 751 points and 182 assists. This year, across the same 32 games, he lifted that output to 821 points (+70), and 242 assists (+60).
The production set a 40-minute era scoring record, dating back to 2009, and new single-season franchise marks for both points and assists. Achievements of that scale inevitably carry weight.
Davis, meanwhile, has continued his rapid rise in just his second NBL season. The 26-year-old now holds the Sydney Kings’ 40-minute era records for points and assists, finishing with 775 points and 214 assists, another sign of just how tight this race has become.
DIGGING EVEN DEEPER
To dig a little deeper, the advanced metrics offer another lens on the race, helping paint a clearer picture of overall efficiency and impact for each player.
Category explainer:
PPM (points per minute), RPM (rebounds per minute), APM (assists per minute), AST/TOV (assist-to-turnover ratio), TS% (true shooting percentage), PER (player efficiency rating), ORtg (offensive rating), DRtg (defensive rating), NetRtg (net rating), USG% (usage percentage)
Bryce Cotton
0.67 PPM | 0.09 RPM | 0.19 APM | 2.68 AST/TOV | 52% TS | 25.1 PER | 121 ORtg | 112 DRtg | +9 Net | 29% USG
Kendric Davis
0.76 PPM | 0.12 RPM | 0.21 APM | 3.68 AST/TOV | 53% TS | 26.3 PER | 124 ORtg | 109 DRtg | +15 Net | 31% USG
The advanced metrics point to Davis as the more efficient of the two, with his lighter workload likely playing a role. In many ways, this race has become a balance between volume and efficiency, with each team asking something slightly different of its star.
Davis’ 3.68 assist-to-turnover ratio is the best recorded in the 40-minute era, underlining not only his playmaking impact but also his care with the ball.
By contrast, Cotton carries one of the heaviest loads in the league. He leads all players at 37.9 minutes per game, a reflection of both his durability and his responsibility. With Adelaide 36ers, his brief is clear, drive the offence as the primary scorer while also handling the ball and creating for others. It is a demanding role, and arguably the tougher assignment on a nightly basis.
STATISTICS AGAINST TOP CONTENDERS
Below is a snapshot of each player’s numbers against the league’s top four teams this season, along with their clubs’ head-to-head record.
Bryce Cotton:
38.6 MPG | 23.2 PPG | 4.0 RPG | 7.8 APG | 41.2% FG% | 7-7 win-loss.
Kendric Davis
32.9 MPG | 27.7 PPG | 4.4 RPG | 6.4 APG | 50.6% FG% | 10-4 win-loss.
This is where things start to separate the players – Davis has outplayed Cotton when it comes to competing against the top teams in the league like Melbourne, Perth, S.E Melbourne and their respective teams in Adelaide and Sydney.
The head-to-head to record is heavily in favour of Davis also, with a 71% win rate opposed to Cotton’s 50% against the leagues best teams. It is results like this that might sway the voters towards Davis.
Sydney Kings dominate Perth Wildcats | 01:14
WHO VOTES FOR MVP?
The process begins with a six-person panel of former players, media members and league reporters who compile the nominee list. Final voting is then conducted by head coaches, assistant coaches and team captains across the competition.
With both stars leading elite teams and producing historic numbers, the final verdict may come down to how voters weigh sustained dominance against peak efficiency. Either way, this season’s MVP race has delivered one of the tightest finishes in recent memory.
CONCLUSION:
The numbers provided, it really is a coin toss. There are several ways to frame the decision, which hardly makes life easier for voters. If the question is simply who the best individual player in the league has been, the nod could lean toward Cotton.
Or the vote might swing to Davis, whose numbers highlight both his scoring punch and his ability to elevate those around him, something reflected in his team’s results.
History offers an interesting insight. In the 40-minute era, dating back to 2009, only three MVPs have come from teams that finished first on the ladder, which suggests finishing second has hardly been a barrier to winning the award.
What is certain is that this shapes as one of the closest MVP races in recent memory. Whoever takes it out will be a worthy winner, and the final verdict may well hinge on one last statement performance before the regular season closes.
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