Who’s flag or bust? AFL finalists ranked 1-8 on pressure gauge… with a September pass mark

The pre-bye formalities are behind us as eight teams prepare to go into battle for the 2025 premiership.

For those at the top, it’s pretty clear that nothing less than an appearance on Grand Final day — or lifting the cup — will be acceptable. Some have returned to September or broken ground from the wilderness, while others would make their fans proud with just a win.

In Finals Pressure Gauge, Foxfooty.com.au ranks the team facing the most pressure (1) to the least (8) and gives a September pass mark — and there’s one side which must win it all for their season to be considered a success.

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1. COLLINGWOOD

Pass mark: Win the premiership.

There’s no question the heat is on Collingwood after Craig McRae’s side sat atop the table for the majority of the season — in fact, the Pies were first on the ladder throughout Rounds 11-21, spending just three total weeks outside the top four.

Granted, losing three of their last four home-and-away games has lessened the expectations of them, but there’s still considerable pressure on this list, which is the oldest in VFL/AFL history.

And with a defence as stout as theirs, they simply must capitalise. Collingwood finished first in the competition for points against, second for score-per-inside-50 against, and first for defending turnover — all crucial premiership metrics.

Scott Pendlebury, Steele Sidebottom and Jeremy Howe are going to go around again next year, but there’s no guaranteeing this side, as currently constructed, will find itself in the same position to have a tilt at a flag in the future.

The Pies get to have a crack at the Crows in Adelaide for the second time in the space of three games — with a crucial chance to implement adjustments and make amends — and if they lose, they’ll still get to host one of GWS or Hawthorn in a semi.

Going out in straight sets would be a disappointment of massive proportions, given the authority the club has had over the rest of the competition for most of this year.

2. GEELONG

Pass mark: Get to the grand final.

The Cats have ridden high at the top of the ladder for as long as most can remember, but the question mark remains over their ability to turn that regular-season dominance into silverware.

Since winning the 2011 premiership, the Chris Scott-led Cats have managed 10 top-four finishes in 14 seasons — but for just one flag.

Hence, there is considerable pressure on them to maximise their second-place ladder finish this September. Getting to preliminary final weekend should be the minimum expectation.

Geelong faces an interstate club in its qualifying final, but even if it loses, it’ll still face an interstate club — Fremantle or Gold Coast — in the semi.

Importantly, the Cats sit first in the competition for intercept-to-score rate, meaning they’re almost unstoppable going the other way once they generate a turnover. It’ll be a crucial trait this month.

Spearheaded by a lethal forward mix, exhilarating midfield pace and a stout backline, there’s no reason the Cats shouldn’t be there on the final Saturday in September.

3. ADELAIDE CROWS

Pass mark: Get to preliminary final weekend.

It might be the Crows’ first finals series in eight years, but claiming the minor premiership — and the two home finals that come with it — creates expectation, and they must meet it.

Adelaide needs to find a way to win at least one final. If it does that, it’ll be playing on preliminary final weekend.

The Crows finished the home-and-away season a stingy second in the competition for points against, behind only Collingwood, and they’ll lean heavily on that power when September scoring starts to dry up.

If Matthew Nicks’ men go out in straight sets, it would be a hugely disappointing result for a club that jumped from 15th to first in the space of 12 months — a never-before-achieved feat.

And while history suggests sides that qualify for finals for the first time in an extended period don’t go on to win the premiership in that first campaign, there’s clearly enough talent in Adelaide’s best 23 to go deep.

4. GWS GIANTS

Pass mark: Beat Hawthorn.

Despite not locking up a top-four spot, the Giants find themselves in the Pressure Gauge top four because they simply must make amends for last September’s capitulation.

Adam Kingsley’s side went out in straight sets after back-to-back catastrophic losses — both after holding commanding leads against Sydney and Brisbane respectively.

A home elimination final against eighth-placed Hawthorn presents a massive opportunity, particularly as the Hawks have never beaten the Giants at Sydney Showgrounds in six all-time attempts.

But it’s still a highly dangerous proposition, particularly when the opposition coach is Sam Mitchell. A loss would leave the club and its stakeholders incredibly disappointed with back-to-back agonising finals crash-outs.

5. BRISBANE LIONS

Pass mark: Get to preliminary final weekend.

Despite having a double chance this September, there’s clearly far less pressure on the Lions than most other finalists this year after claiming the ultimate prize in 2024.

And after winning that silverware, there’s no club being hunted more than Brisbane is, and that’ll only intensify when this finals series gets underway.

But make no mistake, there is definitely expectation on this side — which has made its way to two grand finals in two years — to make the most of its contending window.

The Lions are reigning premiers for a reason, and they’ll be expected to flex their midfield muscle this September with Lachie Neale and Jarrod Berry back in the fold.

Crucially, and adding to the overall picture of expectation, the 2024 flag-winners have notched the most wins — seven — against top-eight opposition this year.

6. FREMANTLE

Pass mark: Beat Gold Coast.

The Dockers came up agonisingly short of what would have been a deserved finals berth last year, but they’re right where they should be after triumphing over the Bulldogs in a fixture most predicted they’d lose.

Fremantle won an elimination final back in 2022, but that September remains its only finals campaign in a nine-year span. Thus, it’d be slightly unfair to place a heap of expectation on this side.

But on the other side of the stick, Justin Longmuir’s side will be heavily favoured to topple the Suns — who’ll enter a hostile Optus Stadium on Saturday having never played a final — and it they lose, there are sure to be questions slung Longmuir’s way.

7. HAWTHORN

Pass mark: Beat GWS.

There’s an argument to be made that the Hawks should be higher on this list after winning a final last year, and after adding more serious talent to a list that was already set to improve because of natural progression.

However, in a year where making the finals meant winning a minimum of 15 games, Hawthorn snuck into eighth, and it’ll need to win against the Giants in enemy territory — and Sydney Showgrounds is a venue the Hawks have never won at in six attempts.

And it should be noted this just their second season on the finals scene under Sam Mitchell. But there’s so much talent on this list that the Hawks will give themselves every chance on Saturday.

8. GOLD COAST SUNS

Pass mark: Be competitive against Fremantle.

This ranking shouldn’t surprise anybody.

The Suns just qualified for their first-ever finals berth, and thus, after 14 years of irrelevance, it’d be unfair to expect Gold Coast to produce extraordinary things this September — particularly when its first assignment is a long trip to Perth to play the Dockers.

But Damien Hardwick won’t accept a blowout at Optus Stadium. What’s ‘competitive’? Don’t lose by more than four goals.

So, if the Suns keep it close against the Dockers — which, based on their play this season, isn’t unrealistic by any means — there’ll be no qualms from us.