Why clubs are clamouring to ‘stock up’ amid AFL trade frenzy… and the big pick swaps that still loom

It wasn’t supposed to be like this — pick-swapping dominating the ‘player movement’ period with a matter of hours remaining in the exchange window.

But the allure of the upcoming national draft has, for good reason, been too bright for AFL clubs to ignore as they jostle for November positioning in October — despite the designated pick-trading window that will open on October 23 and live trading on draft night.

After all, it has been dubbed one of few ‘super drafts’ in league history.

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Endorsements don’t ring much louder than the one AFL Talent Ambassador Kevin Sheehan gave at the Western Australian state draft combine.

“We’ve talked of super drafts back in the year of Sam Walsh, the King twins, Bailey, those sorts of boys,” Sheehan said on Sunday.

“That was super draft number two. The other year was back in 2001. There (are) strong comparisons that this could be one of the top three (drafts) that we’ve had in the last 20-odd years.

“It’s a great time to go to market, so to speak, and get the new talent in and ‘stock up’ is what the clubs are all saying. They’re very upbeat for what this draft could deliver.”

And as we’ve already found out; if you snooze, you lose.

After two expected player trades on the opening day — Alex Neal-Bullen to Adelaide and Jack Darling to West Coast — there have been five consecutive pick trades across the past week, as less than 72 hours remain in the trade period at the time of writing.

Foxfooty.com.au explores what has happened to date and what could still be coming before Wednesday night.

WHAT’S HAPPENED SO FAR?

Pick 20 (BRL > RIC)

Brisbane and Richmond came together last Friday on a deal that not only hugely benefits both sides, but kickstarted this flurry of pick swaps.

The Lions accumulated 792 draft points as part of their quest to attain father-son gun Levi Ashcroft and Academy graduate Sam Marshall.

The Tigers, meanwhile, improved their already-hefty draft hand further, landing their third top-25 selection in the trade with Brisbane — and that’s before impending deals farewelling Daniel Rioli, Shai Bolton and Liam Baker.

Richmond paid overs in terms of the draft value index, but considering the value of this year’s crop as a whole, the club’s list committee would probably do the same deal 10 times over if they could.

And, as an aside, you have to wonder whether there is an underlying handshake deal with regards to potentially not bidding on Ashcroft at No. 1.

Pick 14 (HAW > CAR)

This move will likely be reflected upon as the trade period game-changer.

Hawthorn turned heads last Friday by trading with Carlton instead of the Eagles, after it was widely anticipated West Coast would attain the No. 14 selection and on-trade it to Richmond for Liam Baker.

Instead, the Blues strengthened their 2024 hand — holding No. 12 and No. 14 in the first round — to leave Barrass’ arrangement in a momentary state of flux, but the Hawks will likely still get that arrangement done with the use of future picks.

The Hawks’ unanticipated deal with the Blues means the Eagles are every chance of getting creative with their No. 3 choice — and potentially include it as part of their acquisition of Baker, who could — but isn’t likely to — consider a change of heart as Fremantle lingers ominously with vast capital in its possession.

Carlton, meantime, now has the flexibility to either revamp its pursuit of Port Adelaide star Dan Houston or come away from November’s count with a pair of talented long-term prospects.

Pick 9 (ESS > MEL)

Even before this trade, the Demons hadn’t been hiding their aggressiveness in wanting to strengthen their 2024 hand — expressing interest in Fremantle’s Pick 11 as well as Gold Coast’s in-demand Pick 13.

Well, they ended up with a better choice than both, pouncing on Essendon’s No. 9 choice by offloading a slew of picks.

It is another deal that benefits both parties, with the Demons now holding two top-10 picks and the Bombers accumulating draft points to match an incoming rival bid for Next Generation Academy graduate Isaac Kako.

If it desires such a move, it leaves Melbourne in position to try and prise Pick 3 from West Coast’s grasp.

But this is another move that has had a domino effect in a different way.

As mentioned, the Dees had a considerable level of interest in acquiring Pick 13 from the Suns — but now that they have snagged the high-end choice they were clamouring for, the door is wide open for rivals to make plays for 13.

STILL TO COME

Pick 13 (GCS > ???)

It has been perhaps the most in-demand asset of this trade period, and a decision from Gold Coast on where it lands is imminent.

The No. 13 pick isn’t just the potential catalyst for a Dan Houston trade, but it is also yet another way in to nab a premium asset in a highly-touted count.

Collingwood has long been the favourite for the choice as it hopes to orchestrate a deal that would also send wantaway rebounder John Noble to Carrara, but there are numerous suitors for the pick — and there is no way of knowing for certain which way the Suns will lean.

Sydney (Picks 19 and 22) and GWS (Picks 15, 16 and 21), each have the means to package up and make a play, but it might be North Melbourne and its aggressive reported offer that could force the Suns’ hand.

According to SEN reporter Sam Edmund, the Kangaroos have floated a tasty bid that would include their future first-rounder — likely a top-six selection — as well as ‘more on top of that’ to tempt Gold Coast.

But surely it would do more than just tempt the Suns, who can well and truly capitalise in a year they aren’t as desperate as others.

As coach Damien Hardwick stated himself in September, the club doesn’t need to make numerous first-round picks this year after welcoming four Academy graduates last year and preparing to match a rival bid for Leo Lombard.

“We’ve got picks this year, but we primarily want to sit there and bring in established talent,” Hardwick told Fox Footy.

“We had four first-round picks last year, so we don’t need to keep having first-round picks — we need to sit there and actually bring in players that can help us right here, right now.”

Pick 3 (WCE > ???)

It might have been all about Pick 13 to this point, but in the final stretch of this trade period, it seems rival offers for West Coast’s No. 3 spot will come thick and fast.

Carlton, in possession of Picks 12 and 14 and still weighing up the nuts and bolts of a Dan Houston pursuit, could package its pair of top-15 selections — likely with a sweetener — for No. 3.

Meanwhile, the Saints — with No. 7 and No. 8 in hand — are thought to be sniffing around Pick 3 as they continue their longwinded search for a game-changer between the arcs.

Then there’s Richmond, who has its hands on just about every other pick at this year’s count as it prepares to inject some serious youth into its rebuilding unit.

Following likely trades with Fremantle and Gold Coast for Shai Bolton and Daniel Rioli, respectively, the Tigers, after the first overall pick, are likely to have their paws on 6, 10 and 18 at a minimum.

Along with Picks 20 and 24 within the first 25, Richmond has major assets it can use if it wishes to secure another choice near the very top of the order.

For the Eagles, splitting the third overall selection is more than a viable option.

“I think you’d take the two for one in this draft if the two picks were inside 20,” Sheehan said of the idea of West Coast splitting Pick 3.

“I think the likelihood is high that the top 25 or so will be long-term players, and some champions of the game.

“The depth inside the top 20-25 players is enormous. Pick 18 could be as good as Pick 8.”

Similarly, North Melbourne could bite on the chance to split Pick 2 and add to its hand early in the piece, as its next pick currently isn’t set to come until the No. 25 slot.