Winners and losers: Every AFL team’s fixture ranked as flag tilts receive huge boost

As much as we’d love a truly balanced AFL fixture, it’s just not practical – playing everyone once is too few games, and playing everyone twice is way too many.

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So instead the league attempts to equalise the competition by putting its finger on the scale when it creates the yearly draw.

With 18 teams playing 23 games across 25 weeks, all clubs must play six opponents twice, and these are their ‘double-up’ opponents. To determine these, the AFL breaks up the ladder into a trio of six-team groups (including finals results), and teams are drawn against group members more often.

There used to be hard-and-fast rules around this top six/middle six/bottom six designation and draw design, but the lines have been smudged thanks to the addition of Gather Round and an extra game. Still, we can analyse the decisions that have been made, because they have a major impact on team performance.

For example last year Hawthorn earned a draw worthy of its 16th-place finish in 2023, getting to play Adelaide, North Melbourne and Richmond twice each, and going a combined 7-0 against 2024’s eventual bottom four. This helped spark the Hawks’ stunning rise into September.

So which teams are primed to repeat the feat and capitalise on their easier fixture? And who could slide because theirs is that much harder? Foxfooty.com.au analyses every team’s double-ups, based on those opponents’ 2024 percentages (the better metric of team performance compared to pure win-loss record or ladder position).

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2025 AFL FIXTURE BRACKETS (Based on 2024 ladder & finals)

Top six: Brisbane Lions, Geelong, GWS Giants, Hawthorn, Port Adelaide, Sydney Swans

Middle six: Carlton, Collingwood, Essendon, Fremantle, St Kilda, Western Bulldogs

Bottom six: Adelaide Crows, Gold Coast Suns, Melbourne, North Melbourne, Richmond, West Coast Eagles

EVERY TEAM’S 2025 DOUBLE-UP OPPONENTS

Adelaide Crows: Collingwood, Gold Coast, Hawthorn, North Melbourne, Port Adelaide, West Coast (2x top 6, 1x middle 6, 3x bottom 6)

Brisbane Lions: Collingwood, Geelong, Gold Coast, Hawthorn, Sydney, Western Bulldogs (3x top 6, 2x middle 6, 1x bottom 6)

Carlton: Collingwood, Essendon, Hawthorn, North Melbourne, Port Adelaide, West Coast Eagles (2x top 6, 2x middle 6, 2x bottom 6)

Collingwood: Adelaide Crows, Brisbane Lions, Carlton, Fremantle, Hawthorn, Melbourne (2x top 6, 2x middle 6, 2x bottom 6)

Essendon: Carlton, Geelong, Gold Coast Suns, Richmond, Sydney Swans, Western Bulldogs (2x top 6, 2x middle 6, 2x bottom 6)

Fremantle: Collingwood, Port Adelaide, St Kilda, Sydney Swans, West Coast Eagles, Western Bulldogs (2x top 6, 3x middle 6, 1x bottom 6)

Geelong: Brisbane Lions, Essendon, GWS Giants, Port Adelaide, Richmond, St Kilda (3x top 6, 2x middle 6, 1x bottom 6)

Gold Coast Suns: Adelaide Crows, Brisbane Lions, Essendon, GWS Giants, Melbourne, Richmond (2x top 6, 1x middle 6, 3x bottom 6)

GWS Giants: Geelong, Gold Coast Suns, St Kilda, Sydney Swans, West Coast Eagles, Western Bulldogs (2x top 6, 2x middle 6, 2x bottom 6)

Hawthorn: Adelaide Crows, Brisbane Lions, Carlton, Collingwood, Melbourne, Port Adelaide (2x top 6, 2x middle 6, 2x bottom 6)

Melbourne: Collingwood, Gold Coast Suns, Hawthorn, North Melbourne, St Kilda, West Coast Eagles (1x top 6, 2x middle 6, 3x bottom 6)

North Melbourne: Adelaide Crows, Carlton, Melbourne, Richmond, Sydney Swans, Western Bulldogs (1x top 6, 2x middle 6, 3x bottom 6)

Port Adelaide: Adelaide Crows, Collingwood, Fremantle, Geelong, Hawthorn, Sydney Swans (3x top 6, 2x middle 6, 1x bottom 6)

Richmond: Essendon, Geelong, Gold Coast Suns, North Melbourne, St Kilda, West Coast Eagles (1x top 6, 2x middle 6, 3x bottom 6)

St Kilda: Fremantle, Geelong, GWS Giants, Melbourne, Richmond, Western Bulldogs (2x top 6, 2x middle 6, 2x bottom 6)

Sydney Swans: Brisbane Lions, Essendon, Fremantle, GWS Giants, North Melbourne, Port Adelaide (3x top 6, 2x middle 6, 1x bottom 6)

West Coast Eagles: Adelaide Crows, Carlton, Fremantle, GWS Giants, Melbourne, Richmond (1x top 6, 2x middle 6, 3x bottom 6)

Western Bulldogs: Brisbane Lions, Essendon, Fremantle, GWS Giants, North Melbourne, St Kilda (2x top 6, 3x middle 6, 1x bottom 6)

AFL 2025 FIXTURE DIFFICULTY (from easiest to hardest)

Based on the 2024 percentage of the teams they play twice in 2025

1 (Easiest). Richmond

2. Melbourne

3. Carlton

4. Adelaide Crows

5. Gold Coast Suns

6. West Coast Eagles

7. Western Bulldogs

8. Geelong

9. Sydney Swans

10. St Kilda

11. North Melbourne

12. GWS Giants

13. Fremantle

14. Essendon

15. Hawthorn

16. Collingwood

17. Port Adelaide

18 (Hardest). Brisbane Lions

WINNERS

MELBOURNE

It is not a shock that Richmond, the wooden spooner, has the easiest fixture. Nor is it a shock that Brisbane, the reigning premier, has the hardest. That all makes sense.

Where things get a bit funny is what we’ll call the zone of mediocrity – around 13th or 14th, where you weren’t so bad to make the bottom four, and maybe it was just a few injuries that took you out of finals contention, but you end up in the bottom six bracket for fixture purposes and you can make a sudden jump.

The Demons fit the bill in 2025, with the second-easiest draw on our numbers. They only play one 2024 finalist twice, surprise packets Hawthorn, while getting lowly North Melbourne and West Coast twice, plus fellow middling sides Collingwood, St Kilda and Gold Coast.

Remember, Melbourne still won 11 games last year. They were 10-7 before injuries took their toll and they flopped over the finish line; their ladder position of 14th exaggerates how bad they were in 2024.

This fixture, combined with a much better and/or healthier season from the likes of Christian Petracca and Clayton Oliver, could help them bounce back into September quickly.

CARLTON

From 11-4 to failing to win a final, last season was a major disappointment for Michael Voss’ men, but the third-easiest fixture in the AFL (and maybe some injury luck?) should help the Blues bounce back.

While they get top-six sides Hawthorn and Port Adelaide twice, plus always-dangerous games against rivals Collingwood and Essendon, landing a pair of games against both North Melbourne and West Coast is the major prize here.

Of course last year Carlton also had the third-easiest set of double-up opponents and Steven Bradbury-d their way into the finals, so this is no sure thing, but it shapes as an easier run than many of their rivals have received.

ALSO OF NOTE

Among the teams who actually won a final in 2024, Geelong has the easiest 2025 draw, with a big assist from a weird quirk where they play Richmond twice in the last eight weeks of the season (including in Round 24). If the rebuilding Tigers are as bad as most experts expect, that’s two easy outings for last season’s preliminary finalists on the run into September.

Sydney similarly has its draw difficulty reduced by one favourable matchup – the Swans get North Melbourne twice. The Kangaroos won just three games last season; in contrast Grand Final opponent Brisbane’s ‘easiest’ double-up opponent is Gold Coast, who won 11 games.

LOSERS

BRISBANE

As mentioned above, it’s not a shock that the premiers copped the hardest draw in the comp, but it’s worth recapping just how tough it is.

The Lions face the two teams who hosted a preliminary final in 2024, Sydney and Geelong, twice.

The Lions face the two teams who outside of them were the hottest in the league heading into the finals, Hawthorn and the Western Bulldogs, twice.

The Lions face the 2023 premiers Collingwood, who seem bound to improve after a flag hangover much like the Cats did last year, twice.

And then their ‘easiest’ double-up opponent is Gold Coast, who won 11 games last year and is on an upward trajectory under Damien Hardwick.

We know Brisbane can win a flag from outside the top four because they just did it, but with this draw, they may have to take the harder path again.

COLLINGWOOD

The Magpies are a bit out of place with the third-hardest draw, but we can explain it.

Last year there were three truly bad teams – West Coast, North Melbourne and Richmond – who lost a combined 59 games.

In 2025, 14 teams play at least one of that trio twice, with only Collingwood, Brisbane, Hawthorn and Port Adelaide missing out.

So while the Magpies get two games against 15th-placed Adelaide and 14th-placed Melbourne, that doesn’t have quite the same impact as battling the lowly Tigers, Roos or Eagles twice, and when you combine it with double-ups against Brisbane, Carlton, Fremantle and Hawthorn you get a surprisingly tricky draw.

ALSO OF NOTE

You could mount a case Essendon’s draw is actually harder than Collingwood’s, because while the Bombers get to play wooden spooners Richmond twice, they also get rough double-ups against four teams who had strong percentages over 110 (Carlton, Geelong, Sydney and the Western Bulldogs) plus Gold Coast.

It’s also very weird that North Melbourne, off a three-win season, has a harder draw than minor premiers Sydney – though the actual difference is very small.

WHAT HAPPENED IN 2024?

As always, there are teams who end up with a much tougher or easier draw than the AFL intended, but in broad strokes this system of attempted equalisation works.

Gold Coast was supposed to have the easiest fixture in 2024 and did; West Coast and St Kilda were supposed to have the third- and fourth-easiest draws, and ended up fourth- and fifth.

The major differences came from the teams who played Adelaide, Collingwood and Richmond twice – they were all quite a lot worse than expected. Playing all three is how Hawthorn, projected to have the fifth-hardest draw, ended up with the second-easiest.

GWS ended up with the hardest draw, with six of the Giants’ eight home and away season losses coming against its set of double-up opponents, including being swept by the Swans and Bulldogs.

Safe to say an easier draw could’ve saved the Giants from finishing fourth and ending up on a brutal path where they were knocked out in straight sets by the eventual grand finalists.