This used to be the finals’ most predictable week. Now history says a straight sets exit is likely

This used to be the week of September that didn’t matter.

From 2000-15, the AFL post-season had a pattern. The first week of qualifying and elimination finals were dramatic, but then the second week was pretty predictable.

In the semi-finals, blowouts were more common than upsets, as the better teams proved their credentials while warming up for the prelims. Across those 16 seasons, seven semis were decided by 50-plus points, while only five times did a top-four team lose.

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Oh, how things have changed.

Adelaide and Brisbane head into their home semi-finals as favourites but history tells us these games are now almost coin flips, speaking to the AFL’s successful equalisation efforts. The bottom half of the eight teams are simply much better than they used to be.

And it means straight sets exits are very realistic.

Since 2016’s introduction of the pre-finals bye, the higher seed has won nine of 16 semi-finals – excluding 2021, when there wasn’t a pre-finals bye.

And if you go a step further and throw out 2020, when the semi-finals were played at neutral venues as part of Covid restrictions, it’s a complete 50-50 split. Seven semi-finals won by the higher seed, and seven semi-finals won by the lower seed.

In total, eight top-four sides have gone out in straight sets in less than a decade – Hawthorn 2016 and 2018, Brisbane 2019 and 2021, Melbourne 2022 and 2023, Port Adelaide 2023 and GWS 2024.

It’s not like these were all fraudulent teams getting exposed; five of them bounced back to make finals the ensuing year. They were just beaten by better sides on the night.

Four of them lost to an eventual grand finalist and two lost to the eventual premier (the 2016 Hawks against the Bulldogs, and the 2024 Giants against the Lions).

The average is almost one a year which means the common wisdom of ‘well, the qualifying final losers will bounce back, we’re overreacting’ is out of date. They’re both favourites, primarily because they’re playing at home, but not by a whole lot.

All of this is before you look at the specific match-ups. Can Gold Coast beat Brisbane? Absolutely – they did it by 11 goals six weeks ago, though they haven’t won at the Gabba since 2018.

And can Hawthorn beat Adelaide? Of course – they did it in Tassie earlier this year, and came close at Adelaide Oval in early August.

Recent history suggests it’s more likely than not one of the Crows or Lions will lose. Picking which one is the hard part.

Although here’s one piece of useful info – in nine attempts, 8th has never beaten 1st in the AFL finals, though they did come close the first few times. (Six meetings between 1994-99 when it was a yearly qualifying final match-up, and three meetings under the current finals format.)

Hawthorn would be the first to beat first.

AFL SEMI-FINAL RESULTS (Since introduction of the pre-finals bye)

2016

[7] Western Bulldogs def [3] Hawthorn, 107-84

[1] Sydney def [5] Adelaide, 118-82

2017

[2] Geelong def [6] Sydney, 98-39

[4] GWS def [8] West Coast, 125-58

2018

[5] Melbourne def [4] Hawthorn, 104-71

[3] Collingwood def [7] GWS, 69-59

2019

[1] Geelong def [5] West Coast, 88-68

[6] GWS def [2] Brisbane, 83-80

2020

[3] Richmond def [6] St Kilda, 80-49

[4] Geelong def [8] Collingwood, 100-32

2022

[6] Brisbane def [2] Melbourne, 92-79

[4] Collingwood def [5] Fremantle, 79-59

2023

[5] Carlton def [4] Melbourne, 73-71

[7] GWS def [3] Port Adelaide, 93-70

2024

[2] Port Adelaide def [7] Hawthorn, 75-72

[5] Brisbane def [4] GWS, 105-100

Total record: Higher seed 9 wins, lower seed 7 wins

*There was no pre-finals bye in 2021