The Olympics are just over six months away but a major blunder could cost Nick Kyrgios the chance to represent Australia in Paris.
Kyrgios has never competed at the Olympics, having chosen not to compete in Tokyo due to the strict Covid-19 ‘bubble’ and the lack of fans.
And in 2016, Kyrgios – then ranked 19th in the world – withdrew after an explosive public feud with the Australian Olympic Committee and chef de mission Kitty Chiller, who alleged the tennis player “doesn’t understand what it means to be an Olympian.”
The 28-year-old has not played since June 2023, when he suffered a wrist injury that required surgery – while playing his first match following an eight-month injury absence due to a knee injury that itself required surgery.
The Australian star had been hoping to return in time for his home Grand Slam but withdrew in December saying he needed “a little more time” to get back to fitness.
No date has been set for his return.
But time is running out ahead of the French Open in June, Wimbledon in early July, and the Olympics later that month – and one simple clerical error could cost him dearly.
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In one of tennis’ most convoluted (and often controversial) regulations, players injured for at least six months can apply for a ‘protected ranking’. In simple terms it allows a player to return to play with the ranking they had at the time of their injury.
That allows players to gain entry into tournaments – including the slams and the Olympics – based on their ‘protected ranking’, even if their actual ranking has tumbled due to their lack of matches.
In Kyrgios’ case, the 28-year-old has fallen completely out of the world rankings because points only last for 12 months, and he has won no matches since October 2022.
Kyrgios applied for – and was granted – a protected ranking after his knee injury in October 2022 required surgery the following January.
His protected ranking was 21, calculated by averaging his ranking in the three months following the injury.
When Kyrgios returned to the court in June 2023 – even though it was only for one match – he activated his protected ranking to gain entry into the Stuttgart tournament.
It meant he could use it for entry into nine tournaments or for nine months from that point on (whichever comes first).
But since Kyrgios activated that protected ranking for the match on 13 June 2023, it expires nine months later – the week of March 14 this year. That expires long before the French Open, Wimbledon, and the Olympics.
THE SIMPLE – BUT CRUCIAL – KYRGIOS MISTAKE
Here’s the kicker, the crucial mistake made by team Kyrgios.
After re-injuring himself when he returned in June and undergoing surgery on his wrist, Kyrgios could have applied for a ‘freeze’ on his protected ranking.
Effectively, it pauses the nine-month period in which the protected ranking can be used after a player returns.
Had Kyrgios done that inside the required period (three months after his last match in June), he would have maintained the protected ranking of 21st in the world until he decided to return to play.
Then, when he did return, he would have had nine tournaments or nine months (whichever comes first) to use that ranking.
But the ATP told Foxsports.com.au that Kyrgios’ ranking will in fact expire in March.
It means that either Kyrgios did not apply for his protected ranking to be frozen, or did not have his application approved.
The latter scenario is highly unlikely, given Kyrgios underwent surgery on his wrist and would have had an extremely strong case to have his protected ranking frozen.
Foxsports.com.au reached out to Kyrgios and his agent to ask whether they applied to freeze his ranking, but did not receive a response.
Had Kyrgios frozen his No.21 ranking, he would have been able to use that to enter tournaments directly, including the French Open and the Olympics.
Failing to do so could prove a very costly mistake.
HOW PLAYERS QUALIFY FOR OLYMPICS
The Olympics singles draws are each comprised of 64 players, half the size of the Australian Open and other grand slams.
56 of the 64 places in each singles draw are decided based on the WTA (women’s) or ATP (men’s) rankings as of 10 June, the day after the French Open concludes this year.
The other eight places are awarded under a process that isn’t relevant to Kyrgios or any other Australian men’s player, so we can skip over that and focus on the 56 rankings-based places.
There are some are some key caveats to the way Olympic qualification is decided.
Firstly, each nation can only field four athletes in each singles draw. Currently, Alex de Minaur is Australia’s top-ranked singles player at world number 10, while Max Purcell, Jordan Thompson, and Alexei Popyrin are all in the 40s (based on live rankings after their Aus Open exits).
Had he frozen his No.21 ranking, Kyrgios would qualify as Australia’s number two player behind De Minaur and effectively leapfrogged one of those other Aussie guns.
Secondly, each player must have competed at least twice for their nation in either the Davis Cup (men’s) or Billie Jean King Cup (women’s) in this ‘Olympic cycle’ (since August 2020), with at least one of those appearances coming in 2023 or 2024.
There are exceptions to that latter rule: players can appeal if they were injured and unable to compete in those competitions, for example, or if they weren’t selected since their nation had too many other strong players representing the country.
Kyrgios has not played in the Davis Cup since 2019 and would need to apply for an exemption based on being injured.
He’s not the only big-name player that hasn’t met the clause and will rely on an exemption to compete in Paris, with Carlos Alcaraz and Rafael Nadal chief among them.
There is plenty of precedent for players earning an exemption, however, like Roger Federer in Tokyo (though he eventually withdrew due to injury).
Kyrgios has a reasonably strong case for an exemption, based on injuries ruling him out of competing in 2020, 2021, and 2023.
He has played 17 matches for Australia across seven different years in the Davis Cup after debuting in 2013, which could help earn an exemption based on demonstrating a commitment to the competition.
However, he did also reject the chance to play for Australia in the tournament finals in 2022 when he opted to take a six-figure payday and play an exhibition event in Saudi Arabia instead.
Overall, Kyrgios would be reasonably likely to receive an exemption for failing to play enough Davis Cup tennis this cycle.
But that will only become an issue if Kyrgios can rack up enough wins to get himself into the top four Aussie men on the rankings by June 10 and earn qualification for Paris.
Because he failed to freeze his protected ranking (which again, would have been enough to qualify comfortably), Kyrgios will have to do it the hard way.
It could take something of a miracle.
HOW KYRGIOS COULD STILL QUALIFY
Kyrgios has not given any indication of when he’ll return to competition, but the 28-year-old will desperately be hoping to compete in the next two Masters tournaments at Indian Wells and Miami.
Masters tournaments are second only to the grand slams in terms of how many ranking points are on offer – meaning if Kyrgios wins one, he would likely garner enough points to reach around No.50 in the world.
Both of those tournaments are on hard courts, and Kyrgios has some hope of victory having reached the quarters at Indian Wells in 2022 and the fourth round at Miami the same year.
Given Kyrgios has played just one match since October 2022, returning from injury and immediately winning a Masters (or even making a deep run) would be extremely unlikely.
After those two tournaments, a trio of big clay court Masters begin in April, with tournaments in Monte-Carlo, Madrid, then Rome in May.
Kyrgios has never played in Monte-Carlo, and hasn’t played in Madrid or Rome since 2019. His best result was the 2016 quarterfinals in Madrid.
It’s unlikely that Kyrgios will choose to compete in many – if any – of those tournaments given his lengthy absence and the fact that clay is historically his least successful surface.
Then comes the last, and the best, chance to rack up points: the French Open which begins on May 20.
The famous red clay of Roland Garros will also play host to the Olympics two months later, meaning the French Open will provide the perfect preparation for gold-medal hopefuls.
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Kyrgios hasn’t played the French Open since 2017, and it’s never been a priority in his scheduling – the Aussie typically preferring to skip the tournament and prepare for Wimbledon.
Since Kyrgios can’t use his protected ranking to gain entry into the French Open, he’ll either need to be given a wildcard (unlikely given organisers prefer to reward players who have previously demonstrated their commitment to the tournament), or earn enough ranking points before the tournament begins to qualify directly.
Even if Kyrgios does get into the French Open, unless he has achieved strong results at the Masters tournaments beforehand, he would likely need to make it deep into the tournament to earn enough points to qualify for the Olympics.
Given he has never made it past the third round at Roland Garros, that’s also a long shot.
The unfortunate aspect of it all, from Kyrgios’ perspective at least, is that even though Wimbledon takes place before the Olympics, the rankings that decide Olympic qualification are already locked in before that!
All in all, if Kyrgios wants to play in the Olympics in Paris, he will have to get fit – and fast – and then rack up wins at tournaments where he has previously struggled.
It’s a very, very long shot.
Of course, Kyrgios might not even want to compete in the Olympics, and there are plenty of other Aussies desperate to represent the nation.
But if we go all the way back to 2016, when Kyrgios pulled out after that bitter public feud with the Australian Olympic Committee and chef de mission Kitty Chiller, his comments showed how much he did care.
“Representing Australia at the Olympic Games has been a dream of mine since I was a kid. Playing in the Olympics was a goal this year; I planned my tournament schedule around Rio and made sure to fulfil my Olympic eligibility,” he wrote at the time.
“I am a proud Australian and have always loved representing my country. I am fortunate to be young enough to hopefully have a chance to wear the green and gold at the Olympics in the future. I hope that in four years I will find myself in the position to be a part of the Australian Olympic team.”
Given Kyrgios has often said he doesn’t picture himself playing tennis for many more years, Paris this year was probably his last opportunity to fight for Olympic gold.
Even if he’s fit and firing come late July, he probably won’t be wearing the green and gold.
All because of one simple mistake.
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