Who to pick with the first overall pick in the NFL draft?
It’s a decision that can set a franchise back years or change the fortunes of a long-struggling team.
Owning the No.1 pick brings with it a tonne of pressure on the head coach, the team’s scouting department and on the front office. If they’ve hitched their wagon to the wrong player, jobs are guaranteed to be lost.
Watch an average 6 NFL games each week LIVE on ESPN via Kayo Sports. Join now and start streaming instantly >
It goes without saying that there is also a tremendous amount of expectations placed on the player drafted.
First overall picks are just expected to produce immediately, whether that’s fair or unfair, as the fact of the matter is that teams that are drafting No.1 have had very little success in recent years, or in some cases, very rarely.
However, in 2024, there’s a chance that trend may change.
The New England Patriots are arguably the most successful American sporting franchise in the 21st century.
Led by superstar QB Tom Brady, the Patriots won six Super Bowls from 2001-2018, appearing in nine.
Brady’s historic tenure with the Patriots ended after the 2019-2020 season after a playoff loss to the Tennessee Titans. Sensationally, Brady signed with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers the following off-season where his legend grew, winning a Super Bowl with the Florida-based team in 2021.
New England would select Alabama QB Mac Jones with the tenth overall pick of the 2021 NFL Draft to be Brady’s replacement.
Jones started his NFL career well, leading the Patriots to a 10-7 record and a spot in the playoffs in his debut season.
However, he has since struggled in the two subsequent seasons, especially this year. Jones has been benched five times in 11 games this season, and with the Patriots languishing at the bottom of the AFC, it’s likely New England will turn to next year’s draft to again try and find their quarterback of the future.
We wrote two weeks ago about the quality of quarterbacks that are set to declare for that draft, and how it may end up being the greatest ever draft class for that position.
It appears a sure thing that either USC’s Caleb Williams or North Carolina’s Drake Maye will be taken No.1 overall but there is plenty of talented signal callers like LSU’s Jayden Daniels, Oregon’s Bo Nix and Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. who will also likely be first round selections.
What is less certain though is who will be the team to end up with that first pick.
At the moment, Carolina, who selected QB Bryce Young No.1 overall in the 2023 draft, has the league’s worst record (1-10) – however they traded that pick to the Chicago Bears.
Arizona are 2-10 and despite their QB and former first overall pick Kyler Murray playing solid football since returning from an ACL injury three weeks ago, the Cardinals will likely look to move Murray on if they finish with a high enough draft pick to select Williams or Maye.
There’s still plenty to play out, but realistically New England, who are 2-9, are still a chance to end up with the league’s worst record.
After seeing the Patriots lose 10-7 to the equally-bad New York Giants on Monday after missing a chip shot field goal at the end of the game, many believe New England and coach Bill Belichick are tanking in order to start over.
Can you imagine the uproar from non-Patriots fans if the Boston-based team secured the first overall pick and had the generational talent that is Caleb Williams fell into their lap?
The team that has been to the Super Bowl in nearly half of the last 22 years could have who many good judges have labelled as the next Patrick Mahomes.
As NFL writer Brett Kollman pointed out in a social media post all the way back in May, the Patriots ending up with Williams would nearly be akin to NBA team the San Antonio Spurs drafting Victor Webenyama, the most-hyped prospect since LeBron James. Like the Patriots, the Spurs have been the most successful team in the league this century.
The Patriots have a lot of holes on their roster other than quarterback, but Williams is a special talent who has the ability to potentially turn whoever he’s drafted by into contenders within a couple of seasons. He would certainly return the franchise back to relevancy.
Respected journalist and diehard Boston sports fan Bill Simmons agrees, believing this is the year the Patriots put themselves in a position to draft Williams.
“I think there are six teams that are going to be in this Caleb Williams sweepstakes,” Simmons said in October.
“The question that I was texting my friends about today is just, like, ‘It’s time right?’ If we’re ever going to have a chance to get another franchise quarterback, this season seems like it’s wide open.
“I just don’t see a path for them to not be 3-14, so why not embrace it? Why not trade a couple of guys and try to bottom out? I think this is the year to do it.”
It just wouldn’t seem fair, especially for the fans of the Miami Dolphins, Buffalo Bills and New York Jets – the Patriots long-suffering division rivals who have won just three Super Bowls between them.
For those fan bases, seeing the Patriots struggle this season has been a thing of beauty, but it may be a brief foray into mediocrity.
Hurts hands Bills heartbreak in OT | 00:52
Now, it has to be said that we are dealing in hypotheticals here. The Patriots need to lose at least three of their last four games to be a chance of finishing with the worst record.
What’s also, is that quarterbacks selected first overall aren’t guaranteed to deliver results.
Tim Couch and Jamarcus Russell are two No.1 picks that will live in draft day infamy. On the other hand, the likes of Peyton Manning, Troy Aikman and John Elway have proved that the luxury of selecting first
Out of the 57 No.1 picks in the common-draft era (1967-now), 27 have been quarterbacks.
That statistic isn’t a shock, considering quarterback is perhaps the most important position in all of sports, but it’s because of this that teams have perhaps reached for players and drafted them well before they should have.
Here, foxsports.com.au dives into the history of the first overall pick, naming the success stories as well as labelling the greatest draft busts that set franchises well back.
HITS
1983 – John Elway
Widely regarded as one of the best quarterbacks to play the position in NFL history, Elway won two Super Bowls with the Denver Broncos in 1998 and 1999 – the last two seasons of his career. Before finally winning one, Elway lost three Super Bowls, meaning he played in five over the course of a 16-season career, finishing with a 2-3 record. While they aren’t Brady numbers, Elway can lay claim to reaching the most Super Bowls out of any QB selected first overall. Interestingly, Elway wasn’t even drafted first by the Broncos, instead he was picked by the Baltimore Colts but refused to play for them, forcing the Colts to make a trade with Denver.
1989 – Troy Aikman
Aikman was the first ever draft pick made by Hall-of-Fame coach Jimmy Johnson and current Dallas owner Jerry Jones. Despite a rough rookie season where he lost his first 11 games under centre, Aikman’s selection proved to be a masterstroke. Surrounded by legendary skill players in RB Emmett Smith and WR Michael Irvin, Aikman led the Cowboys to three Super Bowls in four seasons (1992, 1993 and 1995), winning all three. He’s the most successful QB in the proud franchise’s history but unfortunately for ‘America’s Team’ they haven’t won a championship since.
1998 – Peyton Manning
It was a tough rookie campaign for Manning, who threw 28 interceptions during the 1998 season, however that would end up being an outlier. Considering the greatest Colts’ QB of all time, Manning led Indianapolis to the playoffs in his second season and was voted to the Pro Bowl. His CV is glittering and includes five MVPs as well as two Super Bowls, one with the Colts and one in the twilight of his career at Denver. He’s third behind Brady and Drew Brees in all-time passing yards (71,940) and passing touchdowns (539). It’s worth noting that if the Patriots are able to pick up Williams or even Maye in next year’s draft, there will be some similarities between the quarterback fortunes of the Patriots and Colts. After 13 seasons at the helm, Manning underwent neck surgery prior to the 2011 season and didn’t play a single snap for the Colts. In Manning’s absence, Indianapolis would finish with a 2-14 record and the No.1 pick in the 2012 draft, which they used to select the highly-rated QB out of Stanford, Andrew Luck. Manning would then be granted a release and sign with Denver. Luck was everything you’d want out of a first overall selection on the field but a slew of injuries forced the big-armed signal caller to announce a premature retirement after just seven seasons in the league.
2004 – Eli Manning
Peyton’s little brother was selected with the LA Chargers in 2004, but like Elway, refused to play for the team that drafted him. Manning would be traded to the Giants for Phillip Rivers, who had been taken by the Giants with the fourth-overall pick. Eli won two Super Bowls with the Giants, the same amount as his brother, and would be given the ‘Brady-killer’ moniker due to both of New York’s championship winning games coming against the New England Patriots. Manning is the Giants’ all-time leader in passing yards and touchdowns by some margin, records that he will likely hold for a long, long time.
Honourable Mentions: Matthew Stafford (2009), Joe Burrow (2020), Trevor Lawrence (2021)
BUSTS
1999 – Tim Couch
Drafted by the Cleveland Browns, who were returning to the league as an expansion team in 1999, Couch is considered one of the biggest draft busts of all time. Unfortunately for Cleveland, they’ve never seemed to get it right when it has come to quarterback. Since Couch’s first appearance for the team in 1999, the Browns have had 38 different players start at the position. That sort of turnover just isn’t healthy and it has been reflected by the team’s lack of success this century. Couch would start 59 games for Cleveland across five seasons, throwing 64 touchdowns to 67 interceptions. Couch’s career would be cut short by injury and after he was released by the Browns in 2003, wouldn’t play another NFL snap.
2007 – Jamarcus Russell
If Couch is ranked 1B among all-time No.1 pick busts for quarterbacks, Russell is 1A. Former Raiders owner Al Davis was said to be infatuated with the arm talent of the LSU product, picking Russell on spot ahead of Hall-of-Fame WR Calvin Johnson. Many other teams thought there were too many red flags around Russell, such as poor work ethic and conditioning, to risk a high draft pick on let along the first overall selection, but Davis and the Raiders ignored them. Unfortunately for Oakland (now Las Vegas), those concerns would play out during Russell’s NFL tenure and his career ended with a 18-23 TD/interception ratio and just seven wins from 25 starts. Russell cost the Raiders $36 million during his three seasons, which equated to $5.7 million per win and $2.2 million per touchdown pass.
2009 – Sam Bradford
Signed a record-breaking contract with the Rams, but despite winning offensive rookie of the year in his first season, Bradford wasn’t able to fulfil those mammoth expectations despite the fact he hung around in the league for nine years. Bradford never appeared in a playoff game for the Rams or Vikings, with injuries certainly playing a part in his failure to live up to the expectations of being a number one pick. In 2021, USA Today Sports rated Bradford as one of the biggest draft busts in history, writing: “He certainly wasn’t a bad player, and many forget he was offensive rookie of the year. But his injury history at Oklahoma was predictive. The six players selected after Bradford? Ndamukong Suh, Gerald McCoy, Trent Williams, Eric Berry, Russell Okung and Joe Haden.” Again, Bradford had a solid enough career, but not one worthy of his high draft selection.
TOO EARLY TO TELL
2023 – Bryce Young
It hasn’t been a stellar start to the season for Young, the Alabama QB who the Panthers sold the farm for to move up and select first overall. Carolina sent away their first pick in next year’s draft as well as a number of other picks and stud WR DJ Moore to Chicago to parachute to the top of the order in 2023. The fact that gun rookie and MVP candidate C.J Stroud was taken a pick later by Houston has also put Young’s shortcomings this season under the microscope. Young is hardly all to blame for the Panthers’ 1-10 start, with a lack of weapons at his disposal and a shoddy offensive line proving difficult to overcome. Carolina also fired their head coach Frank Reich after 11 games, which likely won’t help Young’s development this season. Of course, the likes of Peyton Manning and Troy Aikman were able to overcome poor rookie seasons to forge Hall-of-Fame careers, so Young still has plenty of time to turn it around.
Discussion about this post