Pies ‘outrageous’ ploy revealed; Cats’ ultimate ‘trump card’ – AFL Experts’ Finals Verdict

The preliminary finals are here with just four teams left battling it out for premiership glory.

Fox Footy’s David King and Leigh Montagna dissect where the two big MCG finals will be won or lost, and the player that will go a long way to determine the winner.

From Collingwood’s “outrageous” defensive prowess to the “ace” up Geelong’s sleeve in their battle to stop a red-hot Hawks, here is your preliminary final breakdown.

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GEELONG CATS vs HAWTHORN HAWKS: How ‘smart’ Hawks can take this away

Geelong may have wood over Hawthorn in recent times, with the Hawks unable to defeat the Cats since 2022.

They’ve also coughed up triple figures in three of their past four meetings in worrying signs for Hawthorn’s backline.

But that was before Tom Barrass.

The Hawthorn recruit looms as a key to this contest – as does the “smart” Hawks forwards who are cashing in on turnover ball in 2025.

“You need to be top three turnover differential to win flags,” Leigh Montagna said on First Crack Preview.

And stats show that in the 2025 finals series, Hawthorn are ranked the AFL’s best with an average of 65.5 points from turnover.

“This is Hawthorn’s model. When they have won the turnover battle, they are 16-zip,” Montagna praised, as stats showed Hawthorn are 1-8 when they lose the turnover count.

“This is where their half forwards come into play – they are the smartest half forward group in the competition and they can sniff out when the ball is turned over.”

While it’s fast paced at one end of the ground for the Hawks, down back it’s the trusted in Barrass that could prove crucial in determining a winner on Friday night.

“He fascinates me this guy,” David King said.

“When he’s up the ground – and this is the biggest threat in the game for me – I’d be taking him to wing as often as I could if I’m (Cats forward) Shannon Neale.

“Get him high because he doesn’t really do this part of the game as well. He labours when he’s working back to goal.

“He tends to just drift. He’s a bit of a drifter – he doesn’t concentrate.

“This won’t be lost on Geelong.

“They would have seen an opportunity here – the more times you can take Tom Barrass to the wing, the better off their forward 50 will be.

“Bring your boots.”

While Barrass may be seen as vulnerable up the ground, former Hawk Ben Dixon said the defender’s strengths were clear inside 50.

“When Sam (Mitchell) got him to Hawthorn he said ‘inside 50 he can’t be beat’. That’s why they got him.”

PLAYER TO WATCH: Patrick Dangerfield

The Geelong veteran is set to have a massive impact on Friday night’s match – and it’s not hard to argue with the stats.

In the 2022 AFL finals series, Dangerfield started in the middle seven of eight quarters of the prelim and grand final.

In 2024, the man dubbed ‘Danger’ was there for all eight quarters.

“This year, we’ve hardly seen it. (But) two weeks ago, three of the four quarters – last quarter, the game’s over. 31 points up, put him away again,” David King explained.

“He’ll throw him in there, (with coach Chris Scott saying) get us going. We saw how destructive he was in that first quarter of the grand final against the Swans.

“(Isaac) Smith won the Norm Smith but Dangerfield set the game up – he just ripped their heart out and they cashed in from there.

“This is the ace. (Scott is) going bang! If you can beat my trump card here in the biggest games in September, good luck to ya! But he’s in there.”

“I think the coach asks for a special effort for the first five minutes. Give us your absolute best and as soon as you feel a little bit of fatigue, get forward.”

COLLINGWOOD MAGPIES vs BRISBANE LIONS: How ‘Oprah-like’ Lions can get through stingy Pies

There’s no doubt Collingwood’s defence will be bolstered by the return of Jeremy Howe.

Stats show the Pies lost just one game while a fit Howe played down back this season.

Howe may be coming in underdone after a string of injuries and a shock concussion, but he’s a crucial part of the stingy Pies defence.

“When you look at the way they move the ball … it compliments the way they want to play. It’s all about being defensively set up behind the ball,” David King explained on First Crack Preview.

“They want to take their time with their patient ball use.

“There’s no rush – no panic.

“Good luck moving the ball full length of the ground against the Pies.

“If they can force a straight line, slow game, you won’t score against Collingwood.”

According to statistics from the qualifying final against Adelaide, the Magpies went long down the line 16 times – and while they didn’t get an immediate return on the scoreboard, 69% of the time they were next to score.

“Seven out of 10 – that number is just outrageous,” King said.

“Add Howe into that, this is a tough back six/back seven to score through.”

But if there’s one team with enough guts to roll the dice against the Pies, it’s Brisbane.

“Brisbane won’t take wide (options),” King added.

“They will back their players … because they’ve got match winners.”

Leigh Montagna says the Lions will take every chance they can to go corridor – and that will force the Pies defence to shift.

“They will still force it – even if you do clog up the numbers,” he explained.

“Teams have clogged the corridor and they still bite it off.”

King said the confidence to go corridor came because coach Chris Fagan gave his elite players a “licence” to back themselves.

“He’s a giver Fages, he’s not a taker,” he laughed.

“You’ve got a licence – he’s like Oprah! He’s handing them out everywhere.”

PLAYER TO WATCH: Nick Daicos

Magpies young gun Nick Daicos looms large in Saturday’s preliminary final.

The midfielder has dominated against the Lions in recent meetings, as stats show.

In the last six games against Brisbane, Daicos is +7% on disposals, +44% on score involvements, +71% on goals compared to his career average.

“He feasts out on the Brisbane Lions,” Leigh Montagna said.

“So much of their offence and X-factor comes through this man.

“How well he plays could be the difference for the Pies.”