Investing in Ukraine’s defence industry and integrating European and Ukrainian forces would help establish Europe’s strategic independence from the United States, writes Oleg Chupryna.
Donald Trump’s stance towards America’s neighbours and European allies represents a clear shift in the decades-long system of international relations. The possibility of the United States reducing its military support or even completely withdrawing from NATO in the face of Russian aggression now poses a critical challenge to European security.
While this scenario was once unthinkable, the absence of US military support during a Russian invasion of NATO territory would expose Europe’s military vulnerability. European nations simply lack readiness to counter a large-scale Russian offensive without US backing. There is therefore an urgent need for Europe to achieve strategic autonomy.
The lack of unity among NATO’s European members, particularly in relation to pro-Russia-oriented Hungary and Slovakia, severely compromises collective defence under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty. Moscow is well aware of these vulnerabilities and will likely exploit them if Europe fails to act swiftly and decisively. Therefore, Europe must strive for full strategic independence from both the US and unreliable European allies.
Investing in Ukraine’s defence industry
There seems to be growing recognition of this necessity among European political leaders, with understanding being strongest in the countries closest to Russia’s borders. Consequently, Europe must urgently devise and implement effective strategies to achieve this goal. Several key factors should be considered.
First and foremost, European nations must recognise the crucial role that Ukraine can and must play in shaping Europe’s strategic autonomy. There are several reasons for this. Ukraine’s military forces have gained invaluable experience defending against Russian aggression for over four years, demonstrating their resilience and capability. Additionally, Ukraine has developed a range of advanced military technologies, surpassing many western nations, including the United States and Europe.
The country has become a global leader in drone technology, with numerous Ukrainian companies rapidly designing, field-testing and mass-producing a diverse range of drones that have proven to be game-changing on the battlefield. The significance of drones in modern warfare has been unequivocally demonstrated, and this trend is expected to grow.
In 2024 alone, Ukrainian manufacturers produced 1.5 million drones, with the government contracting over 4 million more for 2025. Furthermore, Ukraine is among the few nations capable of developing and manufacturing its own cruise and ballistic missiles, which have been essential in modern warfare.
Despite these advancements, Ukraine’s military-industrial sector remains significantly underutilised, operating at only one-third of its potential capacity due to insufficient investment. Given these circumstances, Ukraine has the potential to become a military-industrial powerhouse, playing a pivotal role in Europe’s rearmament by supplying essential military equipment.
Notably, the cost of production in Ukraine is substantially lower, three to five times, or even more, compared to Europe and the United States. Consequently, investing in Ukraine’s defence industry presents a cost-effective, efficient and reliable solution to strengthening Europe’s strategic autonomy while ensuring long-term security and defence capabilities across the continent.
Defence integration
In addition to leveraging Ukraine’s military-industrial potential, European defence industries must undergo significant expansion to meet the demands of all interested European nations. To achieve this, European countries must significantly and rapidly increase defence spending.
A primary focus should be to drastically increase the production of anti-missile and anti-drone systems, warplanes, artillery shells and other critical military hardware. Countries like the United Kingdom, France, Germany and others with developed military industries must coordinate their military-industrial efforts to enhance efficiency, minimise duplication and accelerate production.
In the meantime, European nations must form a coalition of states that are committed to developing robust defence capabilities. While initial steps toward such collaboration have begun, the process must be significantly expedited. This coalition should not be limited to EU or NATO members but should also include non-NATO allies such as Ukraine. Collectively, Europe can only achieve military parity with Russia by integrating its forces with Ukraine’s.
A unified coalition could provide a collective defence mechanism if NATO fails to provide adequate protection. Moreover, the nuclear deterrence provided by France and the United Kingdom could counter Russia’s nuclear threats. The coalition must also establish independent institutions capable of replacing NATO structures if necessary. The Baltic states, Nordic countries, Poland and Ukraine could take the lead in forming this alliance, with other nations joining subsequently.
The sooner this initiative materialises, the better, as Europe is racing against time. Even if the war in Ukraine subsides, the threat will remain, given Russia’s persistent imperial and revanchist ambitions. Only a strong, well-armed and united Europe can deter or, if necessary, defeat potential aggressors. Thus, strategic autonomy must be pursued with urgency and determination.
Note: This article gives the views of the author, not the position of EUROPP – European Politics and Policy or the London School of Economics. Featured image credit: European Union
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