The NBA’s play-in tournament is just over a week away and already the top 10 teams in each conference are already locked in.
Beyond that point there is still plenty to be decided over the final few days of the season, with the Western Conference in particular looking wide-open ahead of the playoffs.
Elsewhere in the East, Boston remains the clear contender to beat but the sliding Bucks are at risk of tumbling down the standings with a cluster of teams fighting for home court advantage.
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Read on for a full breakdown of just where every team stands in the NBA playoff race!
All odds/percentages via PlayoffStatus.com.
EASTERN CONFERENCE (Percentage chance of finishing in specific spot)
1. Boston Celtics (62-16)
Locked into No.1 seed
2. Milwaukee Bucks (47-31)
Locked into playoffs, with a possible seeding of No.2-6 (40% No.2, 19% No.3, 21% No.4, 14% No.5, 6% No.6)
3. Orlando Magic (46-32)
Possible seeding of No.2-8 (26% No.2, 20% No.3, 18% No.4, 16% No.5, 8% No.6, 7% No.7, 5% No.8)
4. New York Knicks (46-32)
Possible seeding of No.2-8 (12% No.2, 24% No.3, 27% No.4, 26% No.5, 10% No.6, 1% No.7, less than 1% No.8)
5. Cleveland Cavaliers (46-33)
Possible seeding of No.2-8 (21% No.2, 29% No.3, 21% No.4, 15% No.5, 10% No.6, 3% No.7, 1% No.8)
6. Indiana Pacers (45-34)
Possible seeding of No.2-8 (1% No.2, 8% No.3, 11% No.4, 18% No.5, 39% No.6, 18% No.7, 6% No.8)
7. Philadelphia 76ers (44-35)
Possible seeding of No.3-8 (Less than 1% No.3, less than 1% No.4, 7% No.5, 18% No.6, 38% No.7, 37% No.8)
8. Miami Heat (43-35)
Possible seeding of No.3-8 (Less than 1% No.3, 1% No.4, 5% No.5, 9% No.6, 34% No.7, 51% No.8)
9. Chicago Bulls (37-41)
Locked into play-in tournament, with a possible seeding of No.9-10 (92% No.9, 8% No.10)
10. Atlanta Hawks (36-42)
Locked into play-in tournament, with a possible seeding of No.9-10 (8% No.9, 92% No.10)
ELIMINATED
Brooklyn Nets (31-48)
Toronto Raptors (25-53)
Charlotte Hornets (19-59)
Washington Wizards (15-64)
Detroit Pistons (13-65)
At this point it seems almost inevitable that Boston will be representing the Eastern Conference in the NBA Finals, although given the Celtics’ postseason struggles in recent years nothing is guaranteed.
Milwaukee has dropped four straight games and finds itself vulnerable, with the Magic, Knicks and Cavaliers all still a chance of sneaking ahead of the Bucks to claim home court advantage.
The Bucks have a tough run home with the Celtics, Thunder and Magic (twice) on the schedule, giving third seed Orlando a big opportunity to jump Mikwaukee in the standings.
Elsewhere, Chicago and Atlanta is locked into the play-in tournament, although both teams will count themselves fortunate to be in that position despite owning a losing record.
Miami will have no issue with having to fight its way out of the play-in tournament, having made the NBA Finals last year from a similar position, although Philadelphia will be particularly desperate to avoid that fate given Joel Embiid has only just returned from injury and any extra rest will be welcomed.
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WESTERN CONFERENCE (Percentage chance of finishing in specific spot)
1. Minnesota Timberwolves (54-24)
Locked into with a possible seeding of No.1-3 (55% No.1, 36% No.2, 9% No.3)
2. Denver Nuggets (54-24)
Locked into with a possible seeding of No.1-4 (34% No.1, 31% No.2, 34% No.3, less than 1% No.4)
3. Oklahoma City Thunder (53-25)
Locked into playoffs, with a possible seeding of No.1-4 (11% No.1, 32% No.2, 57% No.3, less than 1% No.4)
4. Los Angeles Clippers (50-28)
Possible seeding of No.2-7 (Less than 1% No.2, less than 1% No.3, 98% No.4, 1% No.5, less than 1% No.6, less than 1% No.7)
5. Dallas Mavericks (48-30)
Possible seeding of No.4-8 (2% No.4, 97% No.5, 1% No.6, less than 1% No.7, less than 1% No.8)
6. Phoenix Suns (46-32)
Possible seeding of No.4-10 (Less than 1% No.4, less than 1% No.5, 25% No.6, 27% No.7, 27% No.8, 19% No.9, 1% No.10)
7. New Orleans Pelicans (46-32)
Possible seeding of No.4-10 (Less than 1% No.4, 1% No.5, 49% No.6, 27% No.7, 11% No.8, 9% No.9, 4% No.10)
8. Sacramento Kings (45-33)
Possible seeding of No.5-10 (Less than 1% No.5, 19% No.6, 33% No.7, 33% No.8, 14% No.9, 1% No.10)
9. Los Angeles Lakers (45-34)
Possible seeding of No.6-10 (5% No.6, 12% No.7, 23% No.8, 36% No.9, 24% No.10)
10. Golden State Warriors (43-35)
Possible seeding of No.6-10 (Less than 1% No.6, 1% No.7, 6% No.8, 22% No.9, 71% No.10)
ELIMINATED
Houston Rockets (38-40)
Utah Jazz (29-49)
Memphis Grizzlies (27-51)
Portland Trail Blazers (21-57)
San Antonio Spurs (19-59)
Welcome to the wild West, where the top seed is still up for grabs and the surging Lakers are a chance of avoiding the play-in tournament after once looking at risk of missing the post-season entirely.
Minnesota has winnable games against the Wizards and Hawks down the stretch and it is a similar story for Denver, with the defending champions facing the Jazz, Spurs and Grizzlies.
A Thursday match-up between the Timberwolves and Nuggets though could very well decide top seed in the West.
Both teams have already wrapped up home court advantage along with Oklahoma City while the Clippers are in prime position to also do just that despite strong recent form from Dallas.
The Mavericks look all but locked into the five seed and a first-round match-up against Los Angeles.
Elsewhere, the Western Conference play-in tournament could very well be stacked with superstar talent and specifically three of the teams under the most pressure this post-season — the Suns, Warriors and Lakers.
Phoenix currently sits sixth in the West ahead of New Orleans but face the Clippers (twice), Kings and Timberwolves in a tricky run home. The Pelicans (Trail Blazers, Kings, Warriors, Lakers) don’t have it much better though.
Sacramento (Thunder, Pelicans, Suns, Trail Blazers) also has a brutal few games to end the season while the Lakers (Warriors, Grizzlies, Pelicans) have a mixed bag of fixtures left.
There is still the distinct possibility the Lakers and Warriors could finish in the 9th and 10th seed, meaning LeBron James or Steph Curry could be facing a do-or-die blockbuster game to save their season.
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