It’s time for the Dallas Mavericks to take an L.
Accept that this iteration of the Mavs in the fallout from the Luka Doncic trade isn’t going to contend for titles and reset entirely around Cooper Flagg.
Make everyone outside Flagg available for trade and prioritise finding another young star to play alongside the prodigal former No. 1 pick.
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Getting Flagg with 1.8 per cent lottery odds was already a godsend. And this is now a particularly crucial period to get right.
We don’t need to rehash how disastrous the Doncic trade has been. The firing of former general Nico Harrison last month conceded as much as a virtual open apology to heartbroken fans that they made an earth-shattering mistake.
It was made with a vision from Harrison that “defence wins championships.” But Dallas is ranked just inside the top 10 in the NBA in defensive rating and among the worst teams on defence.
The centrepiece of the deal, Anthony Davis, is injured again with a groin issue after already missing 16 games this season. The Mavs have been at their best when Davis is up and firing, but sadly, the oft-injured superstar just doesn’t play enough and his body is becoming increasingly hard to trust.
Kyrie Irving’s return from an ACL doesn’t appear to be coming anytime soon, if it comes this season at all.
And the team is 12-20 and outside the Western Conference play-in.
Even if they got healthy, which, in fairness, we haven’t seen this team at full strength yet as constructed, it’s hard to see them being anything more than an eight seed in the West.
Which would almost certainly spell a first-round playoff exit at the hands of the OKC Thunder.
Some have suggested they should prioritise putting — or keeping — competent pieces around Flagg to help with his development and to try and give the 19-year old invaluable playoff experience.
Sure, there’s merit to that. But it doesn’t exactly set up the franchise to be in the best possible position to succeed long-term.
In fact, the only thing that could make this situation worse is if the Mavs continue on this path of trying to be competitive this season and effectively deny their plan wasn’t working.
Their best mode of servicing Flagg and the franchise at large would be prioritising the future — not compromising it by trying to salvage what already looks like a lost cause.
Crucially, Dallas owns its 2026 first-round draft pick, but doesn’t have control over all its other first-rounders for the remainder of the decade.
Those picks were moved to build a contender around Doncic, so the Mavs are in some ways pot committed to this team.
But this is critically Dallas’ last chance of having complete control of its destiny with access to its own draft pick ahead of a stacked 2026 class with the franchise-level stars like Darryn Peterson, AJ Dybantsa and Cameron Boozer.
It therefore makes all the sense in the world to be sellers at the trade deadline and go into tank mode in the second half of the season in hopes of getting another high lottery pick — and thus another young superstar to pair with Flagg.
The Mavs have form in this area. They tanked their final games of the 2022/23 season, instead of trying to make the play-in, to ensure they kept their top 10 protected pick, which they used to get Derek Lively.
Of course, embracing sellers mode doesn’t mean the Mavs have to tear it down completely or make trades for the sake of it.
Because they don’t have control over their future draft assets, they’d want to go into next season with an eye on being competitive.
So treat the rest of this season as a key opportunity to set themselves up for the second half of 2026 and beyond. Building around Flagg should be the bigger picture priority.
The most extreme lever to pull would be finding trades for Davis and/or Irving. But the grim reality for the Mavericks is that any return for Davis would likely be underwhelming, given his growing injury concerns.
Davis, owed $175 million over the next three seasons, is eligible to sign a four-year, $275 million extension next August that would pay him $76 million at age 37.
That’s a scary amount of money to commit to an injury-prone star in what could turn into a Joel Embiid-like disaster Philadelphia has on its hands.
Reckon the Sixers are regretting not trading Embiid when he had some value?
Without an extension, Davis could decline his $62 million player option in the final year of his contract and become a free agent after the 2027/27 season — the season after this.
It feels like Dallas would be best served getting out of the Davis business now, as talented as he is, and accept a diminished trade package. You sense there would still be several teams that’d talk themselves into Davis, too.
Plus, the Mavs are already well stocked with bigs in Daniel Gafford and Lively, unless they explored the trade market for Gafford.
Meanwhile, Irving’s annual $39 million salary over the next three seasons is much more palatable and it makes some sense to keep a star teammate and established point guard next to Flagg.
Especially when we’ve already seen the struggles of D’Angelo Russell, Brandon Williams and Ryan Nembhard shouldering point guard duties.
It’d also be a tricky time to trade Irving, unless he returned before the February 15 trade deadline and showed enough to entice suitors to give up real assets.
Davis would also ideally get back before the deadline and boost his trade value, but the extend of his current groin setback is unknown at the time of writing.
The trade market will ultimately play a key role in what the Mavs do or don’t do. But they’ll undoubtably be one of the most fascinating teams to watch.
For beyond Davis and Irving, it wouldn’t be a shock if the likes of Klay Thompson, PJ Washington, Gafford, Russell or Nahi Marshall were moved.
It’s worth noting, however, that the team doesn’t have a new permanent general manager yet after firing Harrison, with Michael Finley and Matt Riccardi currently serving as co-interim general managers.
That casts some doubt around the idea of Dallas making major, franchise-altering moves. Particularly if the duo — and franchise at large — are a little gun shy to do anything drastic after the calamity that was their last big trade.
There still needs to be some sort of plan in place and an openness to do what’s best moving forward.
In a perfect world, the Mavs sell off their veterans at the right price to bring in long-term assets to help the build around Flagg.
And they drop below the LA Clippers and New Orleans, who don’t own their first-round picks, in the West standings to give themselves a chance at getting one of Peterson, Dybantsa and Boozer.
They already lucked out by landing Flagg. So getting a second top three draft prospect within 16 months of the Doncic trade would be some sort of silver lining. You might even win back some of those disenchanted fans.
Whatever happens, this much has become clear over the last month or so; even when Davis has played, this is Flagg’s team now.
A superstar in the making, Flagg is doing some seriously special things we’ve never seen from a rookie.
He’s the present and the future and everything must be geared around him from now. No matter what it takes.
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