Dark horse contenders make early statements; hyped riser’s $1 million mistake — AFL Power Rankings

Welcome back to the Power Rankings.

After 10 teams were in action during the Opening Round Zero Northern States But Also Victoria Extravaganza, it’s easy to overreact – but while some games told us plenty, others were misleading.

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See our ranking of every AFL club from best to worst after Opening Round below!

How do the Power Rankings work? We take wins and losses into account, but also the quality of opposition faced and whether teams are likely to get healthier and/or improve going forward. It’s a little bit ‘who’s hot and who’s not’; part predictive, part analysis of what’s happened. If Team A is above Team B, we’d probably tip A to win if they were playing at a neutral venue this weekend.

All times AEDT.

1. GOLD COAST SUNS (1-0, 181.2%)

Last week: Ranked 3rd on predicted ladder, def Geelong by 56 pts

That was pretty much the best-case scenario right there. Even without the reigning Brownlow medallist the Suns were electric, taking full advantage of a weakened Cats line-up and dominating all over the ground. Throw in Christian Petracca apparently learning how to kick – it feels very Happy Gilmore – and they produced what might be their best performance of the season on the perfect stage to set the tone. But they’re not going to play that well every week; remember when they demolished Brisbane late last season, and then still lost to Port Adelaide a few weeks later and got belted by the Lions in the finals? They will be inconsistent, like you would expect from a young group. But Friday night showcased their ceiling, and it’s worthy of a premiership.

This week: West Coast at People First Stadium, Sunday 6:10pm

2. BRISBANE LIONS (0-1, 95.5%)

Last week: Ranked 1st on predicted ladder, lost to Western Bulldogs by 5 pts

They’re fine. One of the big bits of feedback we got after predicting Brisbane to finish on top of the ladder was from Brisbane fans saying ‘but we never finish top of the ladder’. And to be fair, there’s something to that. For whatever reason the Lions are nowhere near as good at the Gabba as you’d think – maybe the humid, slippery conditions don’t suit their game style of dominating possession? – losing eight home games across the last two seasons. In fact, they have a better away record than home record during their two premiership campaigns, and that doesn’t even include their extremely impressive finals runs. They do not fear playing anywhere and it’s why we’re likely going to tip them to beat Sydney this weekend, though it would be nice if their players tried to not all get suspended at once.

This week: Sydney at the SCG, Saturday 7:10pm

3. WESTERN BULLDOGS (1-0, 104.7%)

Last week: Ranked 4th on predicted ladder, def Brisbane by 5 pts

Saturday night was a big one for those of us still driving the Bulldogs bandwagon, which is a lot lighter than it’s been in previous seasons. Luke Beveridge’s men were due to win a game like that, and it just so happened it came against the reigning premiers on the road. The defence did enough in a game featuring arguably the two scariest attacks in the competition – a back six made up entirely of six Harris Andrews-es wouldn’t have helped against that sort of ball movement – and the Dogs showed again they can win a shootout against anybody. It helps that they got a bit of luck; they lost by two goals on expected score, with the Lions notably missing some very gettable chances late. Should they take care of the Giants, as they have in nine of their past 10 meetings, the bandwagon will start filling up once more.

This week: GWS at Marvel Stadium, Saturday 1:15pm

4. GEELONG (0-1, 55.2%)

Last week: Ranked 2nd on predicted ladder, lost to Gold Coast by 56 pts

In the same way that the Grand Final margin was impacted by, but not caused by, Tom Stewart’s absence the Cats were definitely weaker without Jeremy Cameron and Patrick Dangerfield. Perhaps their older bodies just can’t handle the humidity because the Cats have been woeful the last few times they’ve played the Suns up north. In fact, Opening Round started the exact same way as Round 10 in 2024 did – Sydney thumping Carlton at the SCG, and Gold Coast smashing Geelong (164-100! Remember that game? Super weird!). We’re not just bringing that up as a fun factoid… it’s a reminder that teams can get smashed by 10 goals, and still end up hosting a preliminary final that same season. So it’s not worth panicking. But the Cats will need to figure out what went wrong quickly, because with Freo, Hawthorn, Adelaide and the Bulldogs to come before Anzac Day, there’s certainly a risk they fall in an early-season hole.

This week: Fremantle at GMHBA Stadium, Saturday 4:15pm

5. SYDNEY SWANS (1-0, 191.3%)

Last week: Ranked 5th on predicted ladder, def Carlton by 63 pts

Some would have the Swans higher after their stunning 12-goal third quarter helped them obliterate the Blues, but that wobbly first half is the reason we’re not fully convinced by Dean Cox’s side just yet. There were contributing factors like the humid, slippery conditions and the usual early-season skill issues, but Carlton probably should’ve been four or five goals up at halftime. And while we’re not believers in momentum the third quarter was clearly a case of the Swans just capitalising on the Blues suddenly falling apart, so it wasn’t quite representative of the game as a whole. They get the Lions at a pretty good time thanks to injuries and suspensions; they’ll still need to play much more like Thursday night’s second half than the first half, with games against Hawthorn, Gold Coast, GWS and the Bulldogs to come before Anzac Day.

This week: Brisbane at the SCG, Saturday 7:10pm

6. ADELAIDE CROWS (Yet to play)

Last week: Ranked 7th on predicted ladder, BYE

The Crows are one of the toughest teams to nail down heading into Round 1. It’s a little bit weird how much people are disrespecting last year’s minor premier, but then, it was almost hard to believe it was happening last year while it happened. Their current injuries likely take away their top four potential, but even when the likes of Dan Curtin and Mark Keane return, we need to see them back to their 2025 best to believe it. It’s a brutal opening month for them (Pies away, Dogs home, Cats away, Freo home) so they absolutely need to find form quickly.

This week: Collingwood at the MCG, Saturday 7:35pm

7. GWS GIANTS (1-0, 128.4%)

Last week: Ranked 11th on predicted ladder, def Hawthorn by 27 pts

8. HAWTHORN (0-1, 77.9%)

Last week: Ranked 6th on predicted ladder, lost to GWS by 27 pts

Ladies and gentlemen… goalkicking. While we’re fine saying the Hawks deserved to win last year’s elimination final, and the Giants deserved to win last Saturday, both games were closer than you think and heavily dictated by accuracy. In last year’s final the Hawks overperformed by four or five goals, and on Saturday the Giants did the same – most notably from long-range, scoring 14.4 (88) from kicks where you would’ve expected them to score 59 points. All this means to us is that the teams are very close, though given the Giants’ context of being injury ravaged, they were certainly more impressive in Opening Round and deserve more respect than we were giving them. Though they won’t score that freely most weeks. Both of these teams feel like bottom half of the eight sides right now.

This week (GWS): Western Bulldogs at Marvel Stadium, Saturday 1:15pm

This week (Hawthorn): Essendon at the MCG, Friday 7:40pm

9. FREMANTLE (Yet to play)

Last week: Ranked 8th on predicted ladder, BYE

The Dockers are the team we’re most likely to be totally wrong about this year, given their list clearly has premiership potential on paper. But as we explained in our predicted ladder piece we have too many question marks over their actual performance – it would be harsh to compare them to Carlton, of whom opinions ran ahead of results, but it’s a similar situation where they’re yet to live up to their potential. The Blues sank before they could do better than a prelim but the Dockers have a longer runway than that. They don’t have to beat Geelong to prove they’re contenders but it wouldn’t hurt, especially with the Cats looking very gettable after Friday night’s loss to the Suns. Plus Freo have won a couple of times at the Cattery under Justin Longmuir. Just don’t mention last year’s game…

This week: Geelong at GMHBA Stadium, Saturday 4:15pm

10. COLLINGWOOD (1-0, 118.2%)

Last week: Ranked 9th on predicted ladder, def St Kilda by 12 pts

The Magpies’ win over the Saints was the perfect example of hype getting ahead of reality. We came into the season thinking the two teams were probably around the same level, but that the last time we saw these teams, one of them was hosting a preliminary final and the other was finishing a nine-win season. We tipped the Pies and they, unsurprisingly, looked more used to the big stage. They were pretty much exactly what we expect them to be – flawed but professional, lacking scoring power but defensively pretty sound, and more reliant on Nick Daicos chipping it around than ever. (We’ve been Daicos defenders in the past but Sunday night was the first time the criticism of him just racking up cheap touches was close to reality.) Right now they don’t look like they have a top-four ceiling but they’re not going to collapse, either.

This week: Adelaide at the MCG, Saturday 7:35pm

11. ST KILDA (0-1, 84.6%)

Last week: Ranked 10th on predicted ladder, lost to Collingwood by 12 pts

We’re not saying they lost to Collingwood because they asked to play their Opening Round ‘home’ game at the MCG. But we’re happy to say it was a contributing factor, with the hyped Saints gaining over $1 million through ticket sales but losing the four points. It’s unfortunate they, and the other Marvel Stadium clubs, are in the situation where their decisions to prioritise the former can impact the latter. But we know home ground advantage is about the impact on umpiring decisions from a partisan crowd and the thing going unsaid in ‘wow, St Kilda got 82,000 people to a home game’ is that most of them were Collingwood fans. It was the same situation with the Western Bulldogs losing an MCG home game to the Magpies last year. Again, the Saints didn’t lose because the game was at the MCG, but it didn’t help – on a night where they were supposed to announce themselves as a contender after their big trade period. Instead they are what we thought they were – an improving but still mid-table side, and not as close to one of last year’s preliminary finalists as everyone else seemed to think. They have to beat Melbourne if they’re any sort of serious.

This week: Melbourne at the MCG, Sunday 3:15pm

12. PORT ADELAIDE (Yet to play)

Last week: Ranked 12th on predicted ladder, BYE

There’s a massive chance the Power are unbeaten heading into Gather Round. They have a very gentle opening to the Josh Carr era, with North Melbourne away, Essendon at home, West Coast at home and Richmond away – potentially the entire bottom four. It would be an unrealistic reflection of what this team is likely to be in 2026, but a 4-0 start would set them up nicely for a wildcard push, which is a realistic goal given the amount of talent that’s still here and the large win totals they tallied in the first half of the decade. Of course, they could just as easily lose to the Kangaroos on Sunday and throw away all of that optimism…

This week: North Melbourne at Marvel Stadium, Sunday 1:10pm

13. CARLTON (0-1, 52.3%)

Last week: Ranked 13th on predicted ladder, lost to Sydney by 63 pts

Michael Voss was right to complain in his press conference, because the last week has been so incredibly Blues – from the way the game played out (not capitalising on a strong first half then blown away in the second half), to furore over comments from a club favourite in a saga which got way messier than it needed to be. Few clubs know how to self-immolate like Carlton and it’s one of the many reasons they haven’t been as successful as in The Good Old Days. They couldn’t possibly lose to lowly Richmond for a second straight year and head into another tailspin… could they?

This week: Richmond at the MCG, Thursday 7:30pm

14. ESSENDON (Yet to play)

Last week: Ranked 14th on predicted ladder, BYE

It’s worth remembering the Bombers have had a winning record early in each of the past three seasons – 5-3 last year, 8-2 with a draw in 2024, and 8-5 in 2023. In the wildcard era if you’re starting a season like that, you should absolutely be in the mix for finals come July and August. There is some chance Brad Scott’s men start this season well; the Hawks didn’t look great in their opener, then come likely non-finalists Port Adelaide, North Melbourne and Melbourne in Gather Round. It’s absolutely realistic for the Dons to be 3-2… which isn’t amazing but it at least makes them relevant. Their fixture isn’t as easy as you’d expect given last year’s ladder position but they’ve then got a winnable stretch of games surrounding their midseason bye – enough that the Bombers can feasibly have an even win-loss record at that stage. Let’s see if they surprise some people.

This week: Hawthorn at the MCG, Friday 7:40pm

15. MELBOURNE (Yet to play)

Last week: Ranked 15th on predicted ladder, BYE

The Demons are an absolute mystery to us this year, because all our beloved metrics like Pythagorean wins love them – they were so unlucky to only win seven games last year. But they’ve also changed so much from that team, especially in the midfield, with Christian Petracca and Clayton Oliver immediately playing as if they’d been released from shackles. We can absolutely see the optimistic case where their pretty solid young core combines with Max Gawn, still the best ruckman in the game, to be competitive pretty much every week. We can also see them having teething issues in Steven King’s first year and being unable to score. They’re one of the most teams we’re most interested in seeing this weekend.

This week: St Kilda at the MCG, Sunday 3:15pm

16. NORTH MELBOURNE (Yet to play)

Last week: Ranked 16th on predicted ladder, BYE

It is not a total disaster if they lose to the Power on Sunday. But it would be an enormous missed opportunity, because the Kangaroos need to start beating those mid-table types of teams if they’re ever going to escape the bottom six again. Win it, and they’ve got a huge chance of starting 3-0 for the first time since 2016 (that bizarre ‘start 9-0 but only make the eight on percentage’ season), with games against West Coast and Essendon to come. At the very least, they need to start winning some games under the lid, where they’ve lost 27 of their past 30 games. That’s not ideal when it’s your home ground.

This week: Port Adelaide at Marvel Stadium, Sunday 1:10pm

17. RICHMOND (Yet to play)

Last week: Ranked 17th on predicted ladder, BYE

There was some talk early this week about the traditional Round 1 opener being scrapped next year, mostly because the AFL won’t have access to the MCG due to cricket. But we hope it sticks around. After all, Richmond having the chance to ruin Carlton’s season and make them 0-2 before half the league has even played once… AGAIN… is just too fun to ignore! Tigers fans, we hope you appreciate another season without expectations, because as you saw last year it means the rare wins are even more enjoyable.

This week: Carlton at the MCG, Thursday 7:30pm

18. WEST COAST EAGLES (Yet to play)

Last week: Ranked 18th on predicted ladder, BYE

Would’ve been nice if the AFL had let the Eagles ease into the season a bit. Instead they get what might be the new toughest road trip in footy, while facing some injury issues, after the Suns warmed up by obliterating one of last year’s Grand Finalists. To be fair Andrew McQualter’s men were shockingly competitive when they travelled to Queensland early last year and led Brisbane at three-quarter-time. Maybe they’ll keep it close? …maybe? ….hopefully?

This week: Gold Coast at People First Stadium, Sunday 6:10pm