AFL Draft 2023: Pick 1 trade options, analysis, Harley Reid, what is Pick 1 worth in a deal, West Coast Eagles, North Melbourne, Melbourne, offers

Let’s try and answer an impossible question – what is Pick 1 worth?

There are so many factors that change that answer. Which player is available there? What picks do I have to use to get it, and can I get other picks to use in the deal? And in the bigger picture, do I need a lot of talent or just one top guy?

This year, the question is expected to be answered by West Coast, because trading away Pick 1 just makes all the sense in the world. Having only started to bottom out this year, with too many failed or snubbed drafts over the last half-decade, they need the bulk talent that trading away the top selection can provide.

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They’ve also shown they’re willing to trade down, because they did it just last year, getting involved in the Jason Horne-Francis mega-trade. It was more detailed than this but, primarily, they sent out pick 2 and got picks 8 and 12 back.

That’s a roughly fair deal on the much-criticised AFL Draft Value Index, which isn’t exactly supposed to be used to evaluate trades – based on the performance of picks over the long-term, it’s used for matching bids for Academy and father-son prospects – but it’s the best tool we’ve got, and a fair starting point.

WHAT’S ON THE TABLE?

So: Pick 1 then. The Eagles have it, and it seems North Melbourne and Melbourne want it.

Clearly, having the first pick is different to having the second. Regardless of the prospect you want, it’s just that knowledge you have the entire draft pool on offer. It’s security.

For the Eagles, who would surely take top prospect Harley Reid if they held onto the pick, it’s part of why they’re not rushing to trade down. Because they need to know where they’re going, and who they could get once they’re there.

That security factor, combined with how highly Reid is regarded, are what give the Eagles such great leverage and interest in securing a whopping haul of picks in return.

So far, they haven’t been convinced to give up the pick. And it’s worth asking why, when you see the offers that are out there.

North Melbourne’s best bid so far has reportedly been pick 2, plus two of 15, 17 and 18, for picks 1 and 23.

Using the Draft Value Index, that’s a trade won by the Eagles, but gives them the equivalent bonus value of pick 23. That’s not gonna be enough.

Melbourne’s best bid so far is quite a bit stronger in one way, but weaker in a more critical way. They’ve offered up picks 6, 11, 42 and their future first-rounder for just pick 1.

Under the Demons’ offer (if they were to finish fourth again next year), the Eagles are getting extra value equivalent to pick 8. That’s a pretty big win in a vacuum.

But no trade is conducted in a vacuum. And the fact the best pick in that bunch is 6 is the problem; it would mean the Eagles would not be able to guarantee themselves one of the five best freely-available prospects (key forward Jed Walter, tied to Gold Coast, isn’t gettable either way).

While for some reason some Eagles fans get annoyed when this is suggested, it’s clear the club would (in an ideal scenario) trade down and add local talent – not necessarily reaching for them because of their home state, but it’s a heck of a positive in the player’s favour. They did it just last year, opting for Reuben Ginbey and Elijah Hewett – if they had stayed at 2, they would’ve surely taken a Victorian, since Victorians made up the top eight picks.

This year, the top WA prospect is Daniel Curtin, a key defender with the ability to play in the midfield (since that’s where he spent most of his junior footy before a growth spurt) – who could go anywhere from second to sixth, on the latest reports.

Yes, sixth. So maybe the Eagles could accept the Demons’ offer and hope he slides. But you don’t run a draft strategy on hope.

WHERE COULD THE OFFERS IMPROVE?

Melbourne’s offer can only get stronger if they make more trades – perhaps bundling up 6 and 11, one of those and their future first, to get into the top five. North Melbourne still has room to move.

How far would the Kangaroos be willing to go? Keep in mind they have five first-round picks – 2, 3, 15, 17 and 18 – plus what’s likely to be another top-five pick with their future first-rounder.

Let’s get one thing clear: they’re not straight-up swapping picks 2 and 3 for pick 1. If you see anyone suggesting that as a good deal for the Kangaroos, or even as a “fair price”, make sure to never hire them as a list manager.

There would be individual drafts historically where you would prefer to have the player taken first over the second and third selections – the last would probably be 2012, when Lachie Whitfield went ahead of Jono O’Rourke and Lachie Plowman – but over the long run you would be giving up so, so much value by doing it.

In AFL Draft history, the average Pick 1 plays 228 games; the average Pick 2 plays 191. Every second Pick 1 becomes an All-Australian; every 2.2 Pick 2s becomes an All-Australian. They are not equal-value picks, but they’re damn close – because the draft is a crapshoot and, really, you want as many high picks as possible.

It’s clear the Kangaroos know this – partially because they’re not fools – because their offers which have become public have included them getting an extra pick back. When you’re talking about swapping these high selections, something has to sweeten the deal, because it’s so very hard to strike the right value.

So what about the Kangaroos’ future first-round pick. Could they instead combine that with either 2 or 3 to land pick 1?

Well, there’s an enormous risk there. Even the most ardent North Melbourne fan wouldn’t expect them to escape the bottom five or six next season, so you’re likely to be handing over something like picks 2 and 5, at best. (Draft points-wise, that’d be a worse deal than what the Eagles can get from Melbourne right now.)

But there’s the obvious threat you give up another top-three pick next year, and at that point you’re basically making the same trade as 2 and 3 for 1.

SO WHAT SHOULD THE TRADE LOOK LIKE?

If the Kangaroos were willing to really gamble, and could get some handy picks back – maybe the Eagles’ 23 and their future second? – it could be the right price. Especially because the very nature of a future pick weakens its value; you know way less about who you can use it on, and even where it will fall.

For example, let’s say the Kangaroos give up 3 and their future first, and get back 1, 23 and a future second. That’s a roughly fair deal on the Draft Value Index, and all the upside is with the Eagles, who would fancy their chances of having two of the first three-or-four picks in 2024.

It also avoids the problem the Kangaroos have this year, which is that nobody cares much about late first-round picks – because the draft crop is viewed as relatively weak, or at least even, after the top eight-or-so.

Of course, that also points to the problem with the Draft Value Index, which is that it values picks outside the first round much higher than clubs do in reality. (This is why teams can easily trade down and collect infinite second, third and fourth-round picks to match bids without much resistance.)

It’s also worth noting the 2024 Draft will, as they all seem to be these days, compromised.

Levi Ashcroft could be even better than his brother Will, who was the Rising Star favourite until his ACL tear, and is set to play alongside him at Brisbane. While we’re a long way off knowing the actual pecking order for next year’s draft, it’s clear Ashcroft will be amongst the top contenders.

Also up north there’s Leonardo Lombard, a member of the Gold Coast Suns Academy who played in their VFL Grand Final-winning side as a 16-year-old. And expect plenty of hype – because it’s Carlton – for father-son duo Ben and Lucas Camporeale, with Ben named best-on-ground in the pre-Grand Final under-17 futures match.

The potential for a few of the best 2024 draftees to be already tied to a different club could see West Coast place lesser value on North Melbourne’s future first-rounder.

SO… WHAT’S THE VALUE OF PICK 1?

The real answer is: whatever West Coast can get. They have all the leverage in this situation, with the ability to wait until draft night itself to accept an offer.

For an idea of what could actually be fair, let’s look back 12 months.

North Melbourne gave up Jason Horne-Francis and pick 1 – so effectively two pick 1s – plus a future third for 2, 3, 40, 43 and a future first (Port Adelaide’s, which became much less valuable than they would’ve expected, at 15).

In that scenario, the Kangaroos had less leverage because Horne-Francis was requesting a trade out, but they still won the trade on points. They were expected to get roughly a bonus mid-second rounder in terms of points, but Port Adelaide went better than most thought, and it ended up as roughly a bonus pick 47.

So we can easily expect the Eagles to win the deal on paper, and given they hold the leverage this time, they should be trying to get the equivalent of a free first-round pick (in terms of draft points).

The Demons’ current offer is there on points, but it doesn’t quite work because of how late the Eagles would come into this draft.

For the Kangaroos to get there, they pretty much have to give up either 2 and 3, or use one and their future first… but then figuring out the right picks going back the other way is very difficult. Picks 2 and 3 swapped for 1 and 23 is about right on points (if we’re assuming the Eagles have to win it comfortably); but again, clubs don’t value non-first round picks like the points system does. And especially not this year.

All in all, this is just a very hard trade to work out – because no-one has the perfect offer available.