Bold three-way plan could unlock tricky Pick 1 deal as ‘disrespectful’ claim stuns: Draft Talking Pts

The AFL Draft is just two weeks away – and there’s still plenty to sort out.

As always, there’s several exciting storylines to follow including the much-discussed Pick 1 situation, strategies clubs might take, sleepers, and more.

Below, foxfooty.com.au has ran through the five burning questions ahead of the draft.

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IS IT TIME FOR NORTH TO DRAW A ‘LINE IN THE SAND’ AND GO ALL-IN ON PICK 1?

It’s been one of the hottest topics during the season: Will (or should) North Melbourne trade up to get Pick 1?

Though it was a key storyline to follow during the trade period, draft picks can of course be traded all up until – and during – the draft.

It comes with consensus top prospect, Harley Reid from the Bendigo Pioneers, waiting in the wings for the club that takes that prized opening pick into the draft.

Conjecture that Reid could eventually seek a move back to Victoria aside, there’s a view that West Coast would be best served splitting the pick and bringing in a suite of young talent including top Western Australia prospect Dan Curtin, who will end up elsewhere should the Eagles retain Pick 1.

After all, the Eagles have history in this area, splitting their Pick 2 last year as part of the mega four-club trade to bring in Reuben Ginbey and Elijah Hewett.

But what about North Melbourne? After four consecutive bottom-two finishes, it’s perhaps the bigger story given the club’s urgency to climb the ladder, whereas West Coast is sill only in the early stages of its rebuild.

The assistance package received from the AFL and free agency compensation for Ben McKay’s departure helped boost the Roos’ draft hand considerably, currently with claim of Picks 2, 3, 15, 17 and 18.

AFL Media reported North made an offer based around Pick 2 with two of its later first-rounders to get back Picks 1 and 23.

St Kilda Hall of Famer Leigh Montagna believes West Coast’s best play is to split Pick 1 “to get a glut of picks”, but warned North Melbourne against overpaying for it.

“As good as Harley Reid will be … if you go to the flip side and you’re North Melbourne, I don’t think they necessarily have to be desperate to get Pick 1,” Montagna told the Fox Footy Podcast.

“I think they are in great shape holding onto picks 2 and 3. They are still going to get two absolute jets that they can build their future around and continue to build around the young crop of talent they have.

“From my perspective, North Melbourne I don’t think need to sell the farm to go up to Pick 1.

“They’ve made their offer – now it‘s up to West Coast to say is that enough. They would be aware they need a number of picks.

“I think North Melbourne are in a really strong position in this draft. If you’re North Melbourne, I would leave it at that offer and say ‘this is our best offer – we’re not going to give you 2 and 3 … so it’s up to you West Coast, if you want that glut of picks, you have to take what we’re offering’.”

For Fox Footy draft guru Mick Ablett, it’s time for the Roos to make a “line in the sand” as a club and go all-in on Pick 1.

“North Melbourne will know this – they’ve got to find a way to get two picks inside the top 10 for the West Coast Eagles to seriously consider it,” Ablett said on the Fox Footy podcast.

“I’d say those two picks would have to be moreso in the front half of the top 10 rather than something towards the back-end.

“In saying this, I think it’s important to look at the Kangaroos. I think the Kangaroos have a decision to make a decision as well – it’s time for them to draw a line in the sand and go really hard and say: ‘We want Harley Reid. We know he’s a generational talent and the best player in this draft, we want him and here’s what we’re going to do.’

“Do you potentially give up slightly overs to get him? Maybe you do. At some stage that footy club has to draw a line in the sand and show the footy world and their supporters that they’re fair dinkum and are going to go hard after what they want.”

COULD ANOTHER CLUB GET INVOLVED IN PICK 1 TALKS?

That leads directly to the next point. If it’ll take two top 10 picks to get a deal over the line for the No. 1 pick, what other clubs could get involved to help facilitate it?

Though Melbourne and Hawthorn have also been linked to Pick 1, it’s widely considered it’ll either move to North Melbourne or no one given the Roos hold the best package of picks.

According to Ablett, the Demons are the club to watch in having a potential “role to play”.

Melbourne holds Picks 6 and 11 in this year’s draft, landing the former as part of last year’s Luke Jackson trade.

Would the Demons be willing to make an offer of, say, Pick 2 for selections 6 and 11? The Roos could then offer West Coast a deal based around Picks 3 and 6 in a potential win-win for all parties.

“I’ve always been pretty steadfast, I think the Melbourne footy club have a role to play here. I have a feeling that Pick 6 is going to be key to getting this deal done,” Ablett said.

“I don’t think the Kangaroos want to give up picks 2 and 3, as much as I’m sure if they did, we’d see the deal get done pretty quickly.

“I think Pick 6 has got a part to play.”

In effect a three-way deal could be completed:

– Melbourne gives 6 and 11, gets 2

– North Melbourne gives 2 and 3, gets 1 and 11

– West Coast gives 1, gets 3 and 6

Should the draft order remain as is and top WA prospect Dan Curtin, who’s been linked to West Coast all season, still be there at Melbourne’s Pick 6 (set to move back one or two spots), the Eagles could consider trading their 2024 first-rounder to get the versatile defender.

Leigh Montagna suggested West Coast would need to weigh up the possibility of trading out a future No.1 pick, but thinks it must “get creative and find a way to get more picks”.

“This is probably where it gets tricky for West Coast as they would have to do their due diligence on next year’s draft and try and get a good handle on is there the potential next Harley Reid in next year’s crop as well that they could be potentially giving away,” he said.

“Almost sacrifice Pick 1 and then hope it might be Pick 2 or 3 if they can sort of move a few spots up the ladder?

“They can’t go too wrong getting Dan Curtin – I think he’s a beauty. He can play in multiple positions – midfield and down in defence, and then they can start to build.

“They’ve certainly got their work cut out. I think they are going to be the fascinating player in this year’s draft.”

SHOULD CLUBS BE WEARY OF TRADING OUT FUTURE PICKS? OR IS THERE A BIGGER TASSIE ‘CONCERN’?

With the 2024 draft considered to be top-heavy with midfielders and a lack of tall targets, it may impact clubs’ plans this year.

For example, it could mean teams target key position players from this year’s pool. And with trading of future picks now so prevent, such forward thinking is all part of the craft of modern day list management.

Ablett however thinks of “greater concern” are clubs being cautious about the Tasmanian players currently coming through the ranks ahead of the state’s expansion team entering the AFL in 2028.

In last month’s Draft Power Rankings, foxfooty.com.au had four Tassie prospects going inside the top 20, which includes Colby McKercher and Ryley Sanders – and such names could be tempted to return to return to Tasmania and play in its inaugural side in a few years.

“One of the big components that is going to start to comer into consideration is Tasmanian players. The likes of Ryley Sanders, Colby McKercher and James Leake. They’re the ones that are going to be in the hitting zone in three years’ time when we’re looking to build the new Tasmanian footy club list,” Ablett said.

“That’s probably of greater concern in my opinion than looking ahead at what and may not be available in future drafts.”

Launceston’s Arie Schorenmaker even admitted clubs have probed him about potentially wanting to join the 2028 Tasmania side.

“Clubs ask questions, but I feel like for me and for a lot of the Tassie boys coming out of this year, we look forward to moving away and starting something new because we‘ve lived all our life in Tassie,” he told foxfooty.com.au’s Ben Waterworth at last month’s Draft Combine.

“If a club gives us a chance, which we’re hopeful for, I feel myself I’ll repay that. So I’d like to stay there and repay. They’re obviously investing in me as a player and I feel like I’d like to start a new chapter and move away, so it’s something I’m looking forward to.

“They had a Tassie TSL and Queensland game in the men’s this year … and they packed out North Hobart Oval. I think that’s when you could really see Tassie footy and how many people support it. The vibe has definitely risen around the place. You’re driving around and you see stickers on cars with the map (of the state).”

IS THIS YEAR ACTUALLY A SHALLOW DRAFT?

Part of club strategy is understanding the depth of talent – both in the upcoming draft and beyond.

For example, this draft is considered to be a shallow pool that falls away after a clear top 12 (depending on you speak to) ahead of the rest of the pack.

But Ablett dismissed such talk as being “incredibly disrespectful”, going so far to declare this year’s pool is as good as he’s ever seen.

The draft guru said the key trial facing all 18 clubs is finding the diamonds in the rough with their later picks.

“I find it incredibly disrespectful when I hear drafts being talked down and people saying they’re shallow, don’t have depth and there’s a lack of talent,” Ablett said.

“The players themselves along with all the staff around the country have put in an incredible amount of hours of work. They’ve faced challenges such as Covid and the like – particularly this group coming through and the group prior to them.

“I think this group is as good as any that has come through a draft in my time in football … I’m not being facetious. But when we sit back in another eight months time and see what’s starting to come to fruition and these young men having an impact on the AFL stage, all of a sudden we look back pretty fondly on the draft.

“I mean this from the bottom of my heart – I think this draft is as good as any I’ve seen come before it. The real challenge for AFL clubs now is to dig a little bit deeper and to find these players. History suggests there are always players in the 30s, 40s, 50s and 60s that have gone on to play on in AFL premierships.”

Ablett added that the multiple avenues now clubs have to recruit players – including the supplemental selection period (SSP) and mid-season draft – puts less onus on the national draft itself, but doesn’t take away from the talent.

“We’ll hear a lot of chatter around the numbers dropping off and not as many players being drafted in the national draft, that may be the case. But it’s not actually a decline in numbers across the board. We’ve got the SSP and mid-season draft, so your numbers are just being spread across a couple of different platforms now.

“Where in the past we might’ve gone: ‘Jeez, that player is a speculative pick. Do I take him at Pick 59 and we hope he comes on like we think he might?’.

“Those players now have an opportunity to go back into a club, whether it’s as a train on at an AFL club, into a state league program or as an over-rager in the Coates League. To go back and do another few months and build their bodies over a pre-season period and develop.

“History shows a number of these guys will go back and they can really blossom in a short period of time over pre-season and find their way onto an AFL list. Then you’ve got clubs that will leave a spot or two open in the event they get an injury early in the year and might target a specific type of player they need to pick up in the mid-season draft.”

SO WHO ARE THE HIDDEN GEMS TO WATCH FOR?

No matter the perception of the depth of talent is going in, every draft has hidden gems.

After all, Leigh Montagna revealed on the Fox Footy Podcast Hawthorn was keen to use its Pick 36 in the 2001 National Draft on him, before the Hawks went with Sam Mitchell – and Montagna fell to St Kilda with the following selection.

Fair to say both picks turned out alright.

Then there’s other champions such as Adam Goodes (Pick 43 in 1997), Corey Enright (Pick 47 in 1999), Dane Swan (Pick 58 in 201), Brian Lake (Pick 71 in 2001), Robbie Gray (Pick 55 in 2006), Lachie Neale (Pick 58 in 2011), who also somehow slid far in their crops, plus rookie draftees Dean Cox (2000), Stephen Milne (both 2000), Matthew Boyd (2010) and Jeremy McGovern (2010).

So who are this year’s big sleepers? Ablett nominated Kade De La Rue and Harvey Johnstone as two potential bargain pickup.

“I really like Kade De La Rue – a medium forward out of the Dandenong Stingrays – 183cm and 79kg. He’s still a very young 18-year old. He averaged 15 disposals, but it’s his efficiency art 79 per cent that really impressed me at the U18 Championships,” he said.

“He doesn’t have huge amounts of leg speed, but he just does not fumble, he’s outstanding overhead for his size and his ability to use the ball to weight his kicks on both sides of the body. It’s literally poetry in motion watching him play and I’ve got a lot of time for him

“He’s a player you want kicking the ball. Kade Del La Rue is certainly one I’d be keeping an eye on and will pop up at some stage in the draft.”

Ablett said the way Johnstone moves is resemblant of Luke Davies-Uniacke in what could be a late steal.

“The other one is Harvey Johnstone, who’s a 183cm midfielder out of the Sandringham Dragons. I just think this kid has flown under the radar a little bit and he has a lot to offer an AFL club,” he said.

“His movement reminds of a Luke Davies-Uniacke, he’s very instinctive by hand and just his movement around the stoppage is what really impressed me.

“He had an opportunity at VFL level where he played a couple of game for the ‘Sandy’ Zebras late in the year. He’s one that has probably flown under the radar but deserves an opportunity.”