Demon’s rough run with big Rd 1 threat; rising star’s biggest test: Aus Open draw

At least he didn’t cop Jannik Sinner… he copped Carlos Alcaraz instead.

Australian No.1 Alex de Minaur has the world No.1 in his path as he eyes a breakthrough grand slam semi-final appearance at the Australian Open.

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But there are threats galore in the No.6 seed’s draw with de Minaur to face 2022 semi-finalist Matteo Berrettini in Round 1.

He could also face in-form world No.10 Alexander Bublik in the fourth round before a likely date with Alcaraz in the quarter-finals.

WINNERS AND LOSERS: Full analysis from the 2026 Australian Open draw

Neither de Minaur or Alcaraz has ever made it past the quarters at Melbourne Park. De Minaur has never beaten Alcaraz in five meetings.

Alex de Minaur’s possible path

R1: Matteo Berrettini

R2: Mariano Navone or Hamad Medjedovic

R3: No.29 Frances Tiafoe

R4: No.10 Alexander Bublik

QF: No.1 Carlos Alcaraz

SF: No.3 Alex Zverev

F: Djokovic/Sinner

Alex de Minaur’s Australian Open losses (since he broke into ATP top 50)

2025 quarter-finals vs No.1 Jannik Sinner

2024 fourth round vs No.5 Andrey Rublev (Sinner awaited in quarter-finals)

2023 fourth round vs No.4 Novak Djokovic

2022 fourth round vs No.11 Jannik Sinner

2021 third round vs No.16 Fabio Fognini (Nadal awaited in fourth round)

2019 third round vs No.2 Rafael Nadal

Alcaraz also cops an Aussie in Round 1, local hope Adam Walton, while Aussie No.2 Alexei Popyrin will likely face Alex Zverev in Round 2 should he advance.

Thanasi Kokkinakis withdrew from the draw due to injury just before it was held.

Top-ranked Aussie woman Maya Joint faces a potential blockbuster third-round match with former finalist Elena Rybakina, if she can advance through two tricky matches before that.

Joint, the No.30 seed, will face Tereza Valentova in a tough opening round clash before facing either Kiwi Lulu Sun or a qualifier to be determined.

Valentova, 18, is making her Australian Open main draw debut and is one of the only other teenagers in the top 100.

Maya Joint’s possible path

R1: Tereza Valentova

R2: Lulu Sun/Qualifier

R3: No.5 Elena Rybakina

R4: No.10 Belinda Bencic

QF: No.2 Iga Swiatek

Four Aussie women drew qualifiers in their first-round matches including Daria Kasatkina, who made the fourth round here in 2025, Ajla Tomljanovic and Kim Birrell.

Promising young wildcard Emerson Jones faces Canadian teen sensation and No.17 seed Victoria Mboko in the first round.

AUSSIE ROUND 1 OPPONENTS

Men

No.6 Alex de Minaur vs Matteo Berrettini

Alexei Popyrin vs Alexandre Muller

Adam Walton vs No.1 Carlos Alcaraz

Aleksandar Vukic vs Thiago Augstin Tirante

Tristan Schoolkate vs No.32 Corentin Moutet

[WC] James Duckworth vs Qualifier/Lucky Loser

[WC] Jordan Thompson vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo

[WC] Christopher O’Connell vs Qualifier/Lucky Loser

[WC] Rinky Hijikata vs Adrian Mannarino

Women

No.30 Maya Joint vs Tereza Valentova

Daria Kasatkina vs Qualifier

Ajla Tomljanovic vs Qualifier

Kim Birrell vs Qualifier

[WC] Priscilla Hon vs Qualifier

[WC] Talia Gibson vs Anna Blinkova

[WC] Emerson Jones vs No.17 Victoria Mboko

[WC] Taylah Preston vs Shuai Zhang

HOW DOES A GRAND SLAM SINGLES DRAW WORK?

The top 32 players in each singles draw are seeded, and placed throughout the bracket to ensure they cannot play each other until at least the third round (round of 32).

The draw ceremony begins with the qualifiers, wildcards and non-seeded main draw entrants being randomly placed throughout the draw, filling all spots which will not feature seeds.

The No.1 and No.2 seeds are placed on opposite sides of the draw, in the top left and bottom right of the bracket respectively.

The No.3 and No.4 seeds are randomly drawn into the other corners, to face the No.1 and/or No.2 in the semi-finals.

Then the No.5-8 seeds are placed, one in each quarter, to face a No.1-4 seed in the quarter-finals.

Then the No.9-12 seeds are placed, one in each section which features a No.5-8 seed, to face them in the fourth round.

Then the No.13-16 seeds are placed, one in each section which features a No.1-4 seed, to face them in the fourth round.

Then the No.17-24 seeds are placed, one in each mini-section which features a No.9-16 seed, to face them in the third round.

Finally the No.25-32 seeds are placed, one in each mini-section which features a No.1-8 seed, to face them in the third round.

SO HOW WILL THIS WORK FOR ALEX DE MINAUR?

Sitting No.6 in the world, Alex de Minaur won’t be able to play a higher-ranked opponent until the quarter-finals.

Highest-ranked player Alex de Minaur can play in each round of Australian Open

Round 1: Unseeded player/wildcard/qualifier

Round 2: Unseeded player/wildcard/qualifier

Round 3: Seed 25 to 32 – One of Learner Tien, Cameron Norrie, Brandon Nakashima, Joao Fonseca, Frances Tiafoe, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Valentin Vacherot or Corentin Moutet

Round 4: Seed 9 to 12 – One of Taylor Fritz, Alexander Bublik, Daniil Medvedev or Casper Ruud

Quarter-Final: Seed 1 to 4 – One of Carlos Alcaraz, Jannik Sinner, Alex Zverev or Novak Djokovic

Semi-Final: Seed 1 to 4

Final: Seed 1 to 4

WHO ARE THE DANGEROUS FLOATERS IN THE AUSTRALIAN OPEN DRAW?

Last year we told you in this section about Joao Fonseca, the Brazilian qualifier who upset ninth seed Andrey Rublev in his grand slam debut; this year Fonseca will himself be seeded.

This year it’s an older player to be worried about, Poland’s Hubert Hurkacz.

The big-serving 28-year-old reached as high as world No.6 in 2024, but after being knocked out in the first round of the 2025 French Open (ironically by Fonseca), played just one more match before requiring knee surgery.

Now ranked well outside the top 50, Hurkacz had a blistering return to the court with straight sets wins in the United Cup over three men who’ll be seeded at Melbourne Park – world No.3 Alex Zverev, No.9 Taylor Fritz and No.25 Tallon Griekspoor. He narrowly lost to de Minaur in three hard-fought sets.

Another oft-injured former world No.6, Italy’s Matteo Berrettini, cannot be counted out on hard courts having made the 2022 semi-finals here while in his final season on tour Gael Monfils remains a threat – he upset Taylor Fritz on route to the fourth round last year.

Most players inside the top 50 pose some danger to the seeds but we’ll particularly note Belgium’s Zizou Bergs and Argentina’s Sebastian Baez, who both impressed at the United Cup – Bergs beating top-20 pair Felix Auger-Aliassime and Jakub Mensik, and Baez going unbeaten with wins over Taylor Fritz and Stan Wawrinka.

AND ON THE WOMEN’S SIDE?

After missing last year’s Australian Open through injury and failing to defend her Wimbledon title, Barbora Krejčíková is severely underranked at world No.55.

A quarter-finalist in two of her last three Melbourne Park appearances, she is by far the No.1 woman no seed wants to draw first-up.

Also keep an eye out for a much younger Czech talent, 18-year-old Tereza Valentova. After dominating at lower levels for a period, she made impressive deep runs at two hard court tournaments in 2025 – to the semi-finals at home in Prague, and to the finals in Osaka.

She performed admirably in her second-round US Open loss against Elena Rybakina, and in Brisbane fell 6-4 6-4 to former world No.11 Anna Kalinskaya. She is now ranked 59th in the world but the Tennis Abstract Elo ratings have her inside the top 20 on hard courts.

Also underrated based on the Elo system is Indonesian No.1 Janice Tjen (WTA ranking No.56, Elo rating No.31), who won her first WTA singles title in Chennai in October, while former world No.3 Maria Sakkari has been underperforming at slams for several years but looked great in wins over Naomi Osaka and Emma Raducanu at the United Cup.

AUSTRALIAN OPEN SEEDS

Men’s Singles

1. Carlos Alcaraz (ESP)

2. Jannik Sinner (ITA)

3. Alexander Zverev (GER)

4. Novak Djokovic (SRB)

5. Lorenzo Musetti (ITA)

6. Alex de Minaur (AUS)

7. Félix Auger-Aliassime (CAN)

8. Ben Shelton (USA)

9. Taylor Fritz (USA)

10. Alexander Bublik (KAZ)

11. Daniil Medvedev (RUS)

12. Casper Ruud (NOR)

13. Andrey Rublev (RUS)

14. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (ESP)

15. Karen Khachanov (RUS)

16. Jakub Mensik (CZE)

17. Jiri Lehecka (CZE)

18. Francisco Cerúndolo (ARG)

19. Tommy Paul (USA)

20. Flavio Cobolli (ITA)

21. Denis Shapovalov (CAN)

22. Luciano Darderi (ITA)

23. Tallon Griekspoor (NED)

24. Arthur Rinderknech (FRA)

25. Learner Tien (USA)

26. Cameron Norrie (GBR)

27. Brandon Nakashima (USA)

28. Joao Fonseca (BRA)

29. Frances Tiafoe (USA)

30. Stefanos Tsitsipas (GRE)

31. Valentin Vacherot (MON)

32. Corentin Moutet (FRA)

Next in line: Tomas Machac (CZE)

Women’s Singles

1. Aryna Sabalenka (BLR)

2. Iga Swiatek (POL)

3. Coco Gauff (USA)

4. Amanda Anisimova (USA)

5. Elena Rybakina (KAZ)

6. Jessica Pegula (USA)

7. Jasmine Paolini (ITA)

8. Mirra Andreeva (RUS)

9. Madison Keys (USA)

10. Belinda Bencic (SUI)

11. Ekaterina Alexandrova (RUS)

12. Elina Svitolina (UKR)

13. Linda Noskova (CZE)

14. Clara Tauson (DEN)

15. Emma Navarro (USA)

16. Naomi Osaka (JPN)

17. Victoria Mboko (CAN)

18. Liudmila Samsonova (RUS)

19. Karolina Muchova (CZE)

20. Marta Kostyuk (UKR)

21. Elise Mertens (BEL)

22. Leylah Fernández (CAN)

23. Diana Shnaider (RUS)

24. Jelena Ostapenko (LAT)

25. Paula Badosa (ESP)

26. Dayana Yastremska (UKR)

27. Sofia Kenin (USA)

28. Emma Raducanu (GBR)

29. Iva Jovic (USA)

30. Maya Joint (AUS)

31. Anna Kalinskaya (RUS)

32. Marketa Vondrousova (CZE)

Next in line: Lois Boisson (FRA)