Run Home: Every AFLW team’s last round scenarios explained as 13 teams still alive in finals race

Remember how dramatic the end to the men’s season was? Well, you ain’t seen nothin’ yet.

The AFLW finals race will go down to the final game of the season with the teams between 8th and 13th all playing each other next Sunday.

And Round 10 kicks off with a mini-elimination final, plus the top four still needs to be decided – with Brisbane’s shock Round 9 loss meaning there could still be a surprise inclusion. Here are all of the AFLW last round scenarios for every remaining contender.

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AFLW LADDER (Entering Round 10)

1. Melbourne (8-1, 260.4%)

2. Adelaide Crows (8-1, 196.3%)

3. North Melbourne (6-3, 207.4%)

4. Brisbane Lions (6-3, 145.3%)

5. Essendon (6-3, 112.4%)

6. Gold Coast Suns (5-3-1, 115.6%)

7. Geelong (5-4, 130.5%)

8. Sydney Swans (5-4, 101.9%)

9. St Kilda (5-4, 97.1%)

10. Collingwood (5-4, 95%)

11. Carlton (4-5, 89.6%)

12. Richmond (4-5, 86.2%)

13. Fremantle (4-5, 74.9%)

Hawthorn, GWS, Port Adelaide, West Coast and the Western Bulldogs cannot play finals.

AFLW ROUND 10 FIXTURE (All times AEDT)

Friday November 3

Gold Coast Suns v Essendon, Great Barrier Reef Arena (Mackay), 7:45pm

Saturday November 4

Western Bulldogs v North Melbourne, Whitten Oval, 1:05pm

Port Adelaide v GWS Giants, Alberton Oval, 3:05pm

Geelong v Hawthorn, GMHBA Stadium, 5:05pm

West Coast Eagles v Adelaide Crows, Mineral Resources Park, 5:05pm

Brisbane Lions v Melbourne, Brighton Homes Arena, 7:05pm

Sunday November 5

Carlton v St Kilda, Ikon Park, 1:05pm

Collingwood v Richmond, Victoria Park, 3:05pm

Fremantle v Sydney Swans, Fremantle Oval, 5:05pm

SCENARIOS FOR EVERY TEAM LEFT IN FINALS RACE

1. MELBOURNE (8-1, 260.4%)

Round 10 game: Brisbane Lions at Brighton Homes Arena, Saturday 7:05pm

Win: Finish 1st unless Adelaide wins by biggest margin in AFLW history, then finish 2nd

Lose: Finish 2nd if Adelaide wins, 1st if Adelaide loses

With the $1 million McClelland Trophy already theirs, the Demons are simply aiming for the minor premiership on Saturday night. But there’s something arguably even more important on the line – a very favourable qualifying final. We can’t imagine Adelaide losing to West Coast earlier in the evening, so if Melbourne loses to Brisbane they should drop into second, and very likely face North Melbourne in a tricky qualifying final. But a win over Brisbane will knock the Lions out of the four, and hand the Demons a qualifying final against fourth-placed Essendon or Gold Coast – who the reigning premiers would be heavily favoured against. Either way the Dees are one of the flag favourites but an easier qualifying final is quite the reward.

2. ADELAIDE CROWS (8-1, 196.3%)

Round 10 game: West Coast Eagles at Mineral Resources Park, Saturday 5:05pm

Win: Finish 1st if Brisbane wins OR Melbourne wins but Adelaide wins by biggest margin in AFLW history, otherwise finish 2nd

Lose: Finish 2nd

They’re not gonna get into first on percentage, so it’s a simple question of whether the Crows can win on Saturday evening, combined with a Lions upset of the Demons. That would hand Adelaide the minor premiership, but at worst, they’ll be finishing second and still hosting a qualifying final (likely against North Melbourne, potentially Brisbane). The Crows do not have the same potential as the Demons to land an easier qualifying final matchup against Essendon or Gold Coast, because they can’t realistically finish 1st while Brisbane also loses.

3. NORTH MELBOURNE (6-3, 207.4%)

Round 10 game: Western Bulldogs at Whitten Oval, Saturday 1:05pm

Win: Finish 3rd

Lose: Finish 4th if Brisbane loses, 5th if Brisbane wins

It would be a remarkable shock if the Kangaroos lost to the Bulldogs, who were winless up until this weekend… but if it happens, North could slide all the way out of the top four. It would seem much more likely the Kangaroos will win, in which case the Melbourne-Brisbane result should determine whether they face the Demons or Crows in an away qualifying final.

4. BRISBANE LIONS (6-3, 145.3%)

Round 10 game: Melbourne at Brighton Homes Arena, Saturday 7:05pm

Win: Finish 3rd if North Melbourne loses, 4th if North Melbourne wins

Lose: Finish 5th if Geelong wins and catches them on percentage (approx. 8-9 goal gap), 6th if Geelong loses or stays behind on percentage

A shocking loss to the Saints has put last year’s Grand Final hosts in serious danger of missing the top four entirely. It’s as simple as this – win, and they’ll face an away qualifying final, most likely against Adelaide. Lose and they’ll be replaced in the top four by the Essendon vs Gold Coast winner, and they could slide as low as sixth if everything goes wrong. A bit to play for, then!

5. ESSENDON (6-3, 112.4%)

Round 10 game: Gold Coast Suns at Great Barrier Reef Arena, Friday 7:45pm

Win: Finish 3rd if North Melbourne and Brisbane lose, 4th if one wins, 5th if both win

Lose: Finish 6th if Geelong loses plus Sydney/St Kilda/Collingwood either lose or stay behind on percentage, 7th if only one of them wins/passes them on percentage, 8th if two win/pass them on percentage, Miss Finals if three or four win/pass them on percentage

What a bizarre few weeks for the Bombers. If they’d beaten West Coast, they’d already be locked into the finals. Instead they can either make the top four or miss the finals entirely heading into the final weekend of their second AFL campaign. If the Bombers knock off the Suns on Friday night, their most likely path to the double chance would be Melbourne beating Brisbane (since North Melbourne really shouldn’t lose to the Bulldogs). But if the Bombers lose, they’ll have to wait nervously until Sunday to learn their fate. The most likely way they miss the finals would be losing by a few goals on Friday night, then Geelong beating Hawthorn, then two of Sydney/St Kilda/Collingwood winning by a few goals. So as long as they keep the margin close against the Suns they’re in an OK spot… but just win, and the prize could be enormous.

6. GOLD COAST SUNS (5-3-1, 115.6%)

Round 10 game: Essendon at Great Barrier Reef Arena, Friday 7:45pm

Win: Finish 3rd if North Melbourne and Brisbane lose, 4th if one wins, 5th if both win

Lose: Finish 6th if Geelong, Sydney, St Kilda and Collingwood all lose, 7th if one wins, 8th if two win, Miss Finals if three or four win

At least we don’t have to worry about percentage when analysing the Suns, because of their draw against Port Adelaide. A win on Friday night against the Bombers, combined with a loss for the Kangaroos against the Bulldogs (very unlikely) or for the Lions against the Demons (somewhat likely), would hand Gold Coast a shock top-four spot. But if they lose up in Mackay, they could miss the finals entirely, if at least three of the Cats, Swans, Saints and Magpies win across the weekend. They can literally finish anywhere between third and 10th… what an absurd finish to the season.

7. GEELONG (5-4, 130.5%)

Round 10 game: Hawthorn at GMHBA Stadium, Saturday 5:05pm

Win: Finish 5th if Brisbane loses by a reasonably big margin, 6th if Brisbane loses by small margin or wins

Lose: Finish 7th if Carlton (vs St Kilda), Richmond (vs Collingwood) and Fremantle (vs Sydney) win, 8th if two of Carlton/Richmond/Fremantle win, Miss Finals if one or none win

With an excellent percentage, the Cats can leap over the loser of Friday night’s Essendon-Gold Coast game with a win, meaning they’d be guaranteed a home elimination final. But a loss will have them nervously sitting through Sunday’s results. Presumably they won’t be caught on percentage so it’ll be purely about how many of the 4-5 teams (Blues, Tigers, Dockers) can beat the 5-4 teams (Saints, Magpies, Swans). Two is enough for them.

8. SYDNEY SWANS (5-4, 101.9%)

Round 10 game: Fremantle at Fremantle Oval, Sunday 5:05pm

Win: Finish as high as 6th if Geelong loses plus Essendon loses and falls behind them on percentage, as high as 7th if one of those happens, as high as 8th if neither happen, Miss Finals if St Kilda or Collingwood win by a lot

Lose: Finish 8th if St Kilda and Collingwood lose and the Swans hold their percentage lead over both plus Carlton/Richmond/Fremantle, Miss Finals if St Kilda or Collingwood wins, or if Carlton/Richmond/Fremantle win by a huge margin

Remarkably, the Swans can go from a winless first season to finals in their second. They’ll know exactly what they need to do going into the final game of the final round, which is handy, but the answer is almost certainly going to be Win By As Much As Possible. That’s why we’ve had to write “as high as (finishing position)” above, because the Swans could win but get knocked out of the eight if St Kilda or Collingwood win by plenty more than they do. Sydney’s percentage advantage is just three goals on the Saints and five goals on the Magpies. It’s a complicated scenario to explain before we know the exact percentage gaps heading into Sunday evening’s game, but again, all they can do is win. They could finish as high as sixth if Geelong and Essendon lose, with the Bombers roughly five goals ahead on percentage.

9. ST KILDA (5-4, 97.1%)

Round 10 game: Carlton at Ikon Park, Sunday 1:05pm

Win: Finish as high as 6th if Geelong loses plus Essendon loses and falls behind them on percentage, as high as 7th if one of those happens, as high as 8th if neither happen, Miss Finals if Sydney wins and stays ahead on percentage and/or Collingwood wins by a couple of goals more than they do

Lose: Finish 8th if Sydney loses by 3+ goals more than they do, and Collingwood loses, and none of Carlton/Richmond/Fremantle catch them on percentage, otherwise Miss Finals

A stunning upset win over Brisbane keeps the Saints right in the mix, with just a three-goal gap in percentage between them and the finals as it stands. Much like with Sydney, the situation is simple yet complicated. Nick Dal Santo’s side needs to try and win by as much as possible, and then either hope Sydney and Collingwood lose, or that they win by less. They’re roughly a goal ahead of Collingwood on percentage, and roughly three goals behind Sydney. So they could win and miss the finals, or lose and make the finals, depending on the margins in Sunday’s games. Remarkable.

10. COLLINGWOOD (5-4, 95%)

Round 10 game: Richmond at Victoria Park, Sunday 3:05pm

Win: Finish as high as 6th if Geelong loses plus Essendon loses and falls behind them on percentage, as high as 7th if one of those happens, as high as 8th if neither happen, Miss Finals if Sydney and/or St Kilda wins and stays ahead on percentage

Lose: Finish 8th if it’s a close margin, plus Carlton def St Kilda and Fremantle def Sydney but in very specific scorelines so that all four sides fall behind the Magpies on percentage, otherwise Miss Finals

Yes, it’s possible that Collingwood could be 10th, and lose, and actually make the eight. It would be the most extraordinary percentage race possible, needing very specific wins by the Blues and Dockers – big enough to reduce the Saints and Swans’ percentages behind Collingwood’s, but not big enough to raise the Blues and Dockers’ percentages above Collingwood’s. Realistically the Magpies just need to win by as much as possible, and either hope the Saints and Swans lose, or win by very little. They’re currently around five goals behind Sydney on percentage and about a goal behind St Kilda.

11. CARLTON (4-5, 89.6%)

Round 10 game: St Kilda at Ikon Park, Sunday 1:05pm

Win: Finish 8th if they win by at least 8+ goals and Sydney and Collingwood lose, otherwise Miss Finals

Lose: Will Miss Finals

Of the 4-5 sides, the Blues have the best chance of sneaking into the eight, but it’s not a very big chance at all. They’ll need to beat the Saints by plenty and then hope both Fremantle (vs Sydney) and Richmond (vs Collingwood) win later on Sunday… but not by enough to pass them on percentage. The hardest part might be knocking off St Kilda by enough, given they just beat Brisbane.

12. RICHMOND (4-5, 86.2%)

Round 10 game: Collingwood at Victoria Park, Sunday 3:05pm

Win: Finish 8th if they win by at least 10+ goals and Sydney and St Kilda lose, otherwise Miss Finals

Lose: Will Miss Finals

The Tigers’ finals case is on the borderline of mathematically feasible, after their 38-point loss to Geelong did a lot of damage to their percentage. Realistically losing four of their last five games, including narrow defeats to the Dockers and Suns, has ended their year. But hey, maybe they thrash Collingwood and somehow have a chance going into the last game of the season, who can say?

13. FREMANTLE (4-5, 74.9%)

Round 10 game: Sydney at Fremantle Oval, Sunday 5:05pm

Win: Finish 8th if they win by at least 15+ goals and St Kilda and Collingwood lose, otherwise Miss Finals

Lose: Will Miss Finals

The Dockers’ percentage has just taken too many hits in recent weeks for this to be realistic, and if either the Saints or Magpies win earlier on Sunday, their year will already be over by the time they run out for their season-ending clash with Sydney.