Shock leader in Top 10 list of NRL’s most valuable players so far

They may be on a four-game losing skid, but the Melbourne Storm can take comfort in knowing they are set up well for life without Ryan Papenhuyzen.

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Despite the club’s unexpectedly poor start to 2026, dynamic fullback Sua Fa’alogo has been the most valuable player in the NRL so far according to the Red Bull High Flyer Playing Rankings.

Fa’alogo finished on top of the rankings through Round 6 with a total predicted score value of +7.09, with most of his score coming from the damage the Storm speedster does with his running game (+4.97).

But before we go into the rest of the top 10 to unpack what it says about the best performers of the season so far, it is important to first explain what predicted score value (PSV) is and how this model captures the impact of every player across each game of the season.

For starters, it is worth clarifying that PSV is not a score out of 10. Instead, each player is ranked relative to their PSV, a model which measures how much each player contributes to the final scoreboard.

The system processes more than 15,000 data points per game, analysing every run, pass, kick, error and penalty as the game unfolds.

The model is based on deriving the intrinsic value of every single action that occurs in a match relative to the final scoreboard using a proprietary AI model.

It means that every moment in the game is assessed based on how it changes a team’s likelihood of scoring.

For instance, if an action such as a linebreak or linebreak assist improves the chance of points, the player responsible gains PSV.

If they concede a penalty or drop the ball, however, it reduces the chance and their PSV decreases accordingly.

These changes are tracked across the entire game to produce a total performance value for every player, allowing them to be ranked based on their overall impact on the game rather than just traditional statistics.

Because every action is valued on the same scale, PSV allows players across different positions to be compared fairly and highlights the moments that have the biggest influence on the result.

Now, of course, there is going to be some variation among positions as forwards generally build their scores through repeated involvements such as runs and tackles while spine players and outside backs are more involved in scoring actions and hence likelier to see bigger spikes in their score.

So with that in mind, it is hardly surprising to see that there are not any forwards inside the PSV top-10 leaderboard after Round 6.

Instead, it is Fa’alogo leading the way with Manly fullback Tom Trbojevic close behind him.

Again, this speaks to the fact that the best players in the competition are not always simply the ones playing for the top-performing teams in the competition.

Instead, the PSV model helps separate team result from individual output to highlight players who are consistently increasing their team’s chances of scoring, even if a try is not ultimately scored.

In the case of Trbojevic, even when the Sea Eagles were struggling earlier in the season he was getting through plenty of work with 500 run metres, 10 tackle busts and two linebreaks in Manly’s first three games.

Like Fa’alogo, his running game (+4.97) is also the biggest contributor to his total PSV.

Of course, the PSV also captures some of the better performers on winning teams and that is true with the third and fourth-most valuable players in Adam Doueihi and Tanah Boyd.

The model has singled out Doueihi (+6.76) for both his running game (+3.28) and passing (+3.75), which has proven particularly important in guiding the Tigers around with Jarome Luai sidelined.

Tanah Boyd, meanwhile, was a standout for the Warriors to start the season with Luke Metcalf sidelined and ranked fourth with a total PSV of +6.75.

In fifth is Cowboys fullback Scott Drinkwater, who was only told last week by the club that he was free to negotiate with rival teams if he can secure a long-term offer elsewhere.

While Drinkwater has his defensive deficiencies, he is the spark for the North Queensland attack out the back and finished Round 6 with the highest PSV pass score (+4.77) of the Top 10.

Elsewhere, it is hardly a surprise to see Panthers winger Tom Jenkins in sixth place (+6.66 total PSV) after his historic try-scoring haul to open the 2026 season.

Last week, Jenkins scored a sixth-straight double against the Bulldogs to become just the second player all time to score two or more tries in six-straight games.

Rounding out the Top 10 is Dolphins duo Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow (7th, +6.21) and Jake Averillo (10th, +5.79) along with versatile Raider Simi Sasagi (8th, +5.95) and Tigers fullback Jahream Bula (9th, +5.85).

Sasagi’s position inside the top-10 only further justifies Raiders coach Ricky Stuart’s decision to keep him in the centres over the explosive Matt Timoko, who makes his NRL return this week in place of Savelio Tamale.