It’s hard to think of a step change as dramatic as transitioning from the grandeur of Bathurst to the wackiness of the Gold Coast.
Gone is the flowing ascent, the glide over the hill and the twisting run down.
In comes big braking, kerb hopping and wall grinding.
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It’s a completely different kind of challenge around arguably the season’s most extreme circuit.
And this year, among all the jeopardy of the closed-in barriers and mountains kerbs, a title battle enters its final phase.
At the penultimate round a narrow path to victory emerges for title leader Brodie Kostecki.
Can Shane van Gisbergen close the route and chart his own course to the trophy, or will he find his championship challenge hanging by a thread by Sunday?
THE PERMUTATIONS
With only two rounds remaining and just 600 points up for grabs, the championship race has realistically boiled down to two contenders.
Drivers championship battle
Brodie Kostecki: 2447 points
Shane van Gisbergen: -131 points
Still in mathematical contention
Will Brown: -390 points
Broc Feeney: -408 points
Chaz Mostert: -547 points
Any driver more than 450 points adrift on Saturday night will be eliminated.
The magic number for Sunday and an entry to the title finale in Adelaide is 300 points.
That means Van Gisbergen can’t win the title on the Gold Coast, but he can lose it.
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We’re in the stage of the season at which a retirement or very low score will be fatal. Broc Feeney can attest to as much, having fallen from a viable 204 points off the pace before Bathurst to a terminal 408 points thanks to his late-race gear shift failure.
SVG’s car was within seconds of developing a similar failure from the Bathurst lead, according to his team. A repeat would almost certainly end his chance at a farewell championship.
For Kostecki the equation is more straightforward.
A pair of victories in Gold Coast would give him a points buffer worth one clear race victory to play with — a vital insurance policy against the potential for a DNF at the season-closing street venues.
His pathway to the title can be secured with a defensive strategy. A quartet of fourth-place finishes would be enough to hold a decisive lead on Sunday night in Adelaide.
For a man who’s finished off the podium just once since the Sunday in Townsville in July, it feels comfortably within his grasp.
But reigning champion Van Gisbergen remains upbeat.
“Anything can happen,” he said. “There are only four races left and Brodie’s doing very well.
“He doesn’t make many mistakes and, as you have to be, on bad days he’s still in the top five.
“He’s an awesome driver and their raw speed is definitely better than ours. Our race pace is always pretty close.”
Van Gisbergen is a six-time winner on the Gold Coast, including four with a co-driver in the days of Surfers Paradise being a proper endurance race.
Kostecki has raced here at just two Supercars events, achieving career-best results of seventh and fifth last season.
Form will mean little to the championship leader, who’s in an immeasurably better car than any he’s driven in his career to date. But experience might make the difference at one of the sport’s most extreme circuits.
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HOMETOWN HERO’S UNHAPPY HOMECOMING
This isn’t the happy homecoming Broc Feeney would have been hoping for only a few weeks ago.
Feeney has made a big name for himself in the last 12 months. While his rookie season was strong for the highly rated young gun, this season he’s turned all that promise and hype into something tangible, racking up trophies to give himself a shot at the title until his Bathurst heartbreak.
A late technical failure took him off what looked like a guaranteed podium and dumped him to 23rd, ending his championship hopes.
But it means he’ll arrive back at his home race as a known protagonist rather than a rookie with potential.
“I can‘t wait,” he wrote in his Red Bull diary. “This racetrack is probably the craziest one of the year … and I think I’ve got some good home support.
“There‘s no better way to bounce back than to get on the podium and try to get a couple of surfboards. That’s certainly the goal this weekend.”
But while his capacity to win races this weekend is undoubted, he finds himself in the potentially unhappy position of needing to help teammate Van Gisbergen in the Kiwi’s far more probable title chance.
There are no sprints remaining this season. All four final rounds are over 250 kilometres, which means fuel and tyre strategy will be key to a good result.
It also means there’s plenty of scope for Triple Eight to deploy Feeney in a defensive rear-gunner role to hamper Kostecki and minimise his points haul.
It’d be a tough call to make at Feeney’s home race and with him still in mathematical title contention. It would also have to be balanced against the team’s broader interest of attempting to outscore Erebus to take the teams championship, which is within easier grasp.
But if the opportunity were to present itself, Triple Eight would be silly not to take it.
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WHAT ABOUT THE TEAMS TITLE?
The teams title is still very much live between the leading Erebus team and pursuer Triple Eight, the only team still in contention.
Teams championship battle
Erebus: 4504 points
Triple Eight: -179 points
There’s a little less at stake in this year’s championship. Normally the winner of the teams title would get the strategically advantageous last garage position in pit lane for the following season. In 2024, however, garage order will be decided week to week based on title position after each round.
The winner of this year’s championship is guaranteed the best pit box for only the first round next season.
But there’s certainly pride on the line, not least for Triple Eight, which designed the Gen3 Camaro that Erebus has wielded more effectively this season.
The outcome of this fight will rely as much on the drivers effectively out of title contention as it will on the two leaders, with Feeney and Will Brown’s results key.
There’s been little to pick between them this year. Brown had a spell at the top of the title standings, but Feeney also enjoyed a purple patch of form in the middle of the campaign that put him only just short of the points lead.
Perhaps counting for Brown is that he was in better form before the enduro races. Counting against him, however, is that he’s been recovering from prearranged back surgery to address long-running lower back pain. He described himself as being at “80 to 85 per cent” fitness to V8 Sleuth this week.
Being quick around the Gold Coast is all about riding the high kerbs, creating a potential vulnerability in the Erebus’s fight to defend its lead.
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PARITY PAIN CONTINUES
Finally, it wouldn’t be a round of the 2023 Supercars series without a bit of parity talk.
Series organisers have approved more changes to the Ford Mustang’s aero kit for this weekend following the season’s second parity inquest after the Bathurst 1000.
But Ford isn’t convinced it’ll be enough.
Ford and homologation team Dick Johnson Racing calculated that the Mustang was losing 0.24 seconds per lap through aerodynamic disparity and 0.18 seconds per lap in engine performance at Mount Panorama.
But Supercars approved only the aerodynamic changes. Engine modifications — designed to add 8 newton metres of torque to the motor — were knocked back.
“With Supercars only approving the aerodynamic update, Ford teams will remain at a larger disadvantage this weekend,” Detroit said in a statement.
Still, if the Ford numbers are accurate, the aerodynamic changes alone will close almost 60 per cent of the Mustang’s deficit — maybe enough to be a pole and victory contender.
HOW CAN I WATCH IT?
The 2023 Gold Coast 500 is live and ad-break free during racing on Kayo and Fox Sports.
Friday features a pair of 30-minute practice sessions at 12:30pm (AEDT) and 4:30pm.
Saturday starts with 15 minutes of qualifying at 12:35pm and the top-10 shootout at 2:05pm, with the first 85-lap race at 4:45pm.
Sunday opens with 15 minutes of qualifying at 11:05am, with the top-10 shootout at 12:35pm and the final 85-lap race at 3:15pm.
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