The Supercars title will be decided in Adelaide, but these five moments have put Brown on the brink

Just two title contenders remain for the Supercars championship at this weekend’s finale at the Adelaide 500, but momentum heavily favours title leader Will Brown over teammate Broc Feeney.

The margin stands at a comfortable 180 points. It would require a remarkable turnaround just to keep the title alive on Sunday, never mind reverse the margin by the end of the round.

You might think Feeney’s improbable title deficit heading to Adelaide is the sign of a poor season, but that wouldn’t be quite right.

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On several metrics the 22-year-old has led the way in 2024.

Qualifying is where he really excels. His four-pole record is twice as good as Brown’s and bettered only by one-lap specialist Cam Waters, and his average starting position of 5.1 is the highest in the sport.

Broc Feeney season averages

Qualifying result: 5.1 average

Time differential: 0.82 seconds ahead of Brown

Poles: 4

Front rows: 7

Race result: 5.1 average

Race wins: 5

Podiums: 13

Round wins: 1

Points per round: 235.6 points average

But his qualifying consistency hasn’t lived up to his race performances.

The fact he’s starting and finishing in the same place is testament to his erratic results, excelling on some weekends — no-one has won more than his five races — but bombing out of others.

That contrasts starkly with Brown’s impressive racing record.

The Triple Eight new hire could make history as the first driver in 40 years to finish on the podium at every round. The previous was Dick Johnson in 1984.

Brown has finished off the podium just five times all season and has finished outside the top 10 just once, after a crash on the first lap in Townsville left him with damage.

While he’s been relatively weaker over one lap, his statistics overall make for more formidable reading.

Will Brown season averages

Qualifying result: 5.9 average

Time differential: 0.82 seconds behind Feeney

Poles: 2

Front rows: 5

Race result: 4.0 average

Race wins: 4

Podiums: 17

Round wins: 3

Points per round: 252.0 points average

Compare them directly, and it’s clear to see where Brown has had a small but decisive advantage over the season.

But it’s not that Brown has spent the entire season a step ahead of the Triple Eight incumbent.

Instead this is a title battle that’s pivoted on a series of big points swings that have left Brown on the cusp of a maiden championship.

THE MOMENTS THAT SWUNG THE 2024 CHAMPIONSHIP

After a closely fought opening two rounds of the season in Bathurst and Melbourne, five key moments stand out as having contributed to the substantial points gap ahead of this weekend’s final round.

Brown draws first blood at the Taupō Super400

The teammates arrived in New Zealand split by just 17 points. Having won four of the opening six races between them, even at this early stage the championship seemed sure to boil down to a Triple Eight intrateam fight.

Brown landed his first big blow on a chaotic and unpredictable weekend in Taupō.

Feeney qualified a disappointing 13th — one of just two qualifying misses for the season — but suffered an even worse start when he was tipped into a spin at the first turn.

It dumped him to the back of the grid, and though Brown, who led early, slumped to ninth by the end of the race on an uncompetitive day for Triple Eight, Feeney trailed home 21st, shipping 42 points to his rival.

Sunday was much better for the team, and from second on the grid Feeney looked likely to win back some points, but Brown chased him down for victory in a thrilling climax to the race to compound the damage.

Their door-scraping battle was a statement of intent that Triple Eight’s new kid on the block was playing for keeps and that Feeney would have to find another level.

Points swing: 54 points to Brown

Margin: 71 points

Feeney flops in the Perth SuperSprint

The sport’s annual visit to Wanneroo was the first to pass without a win for Triple Eight in the first sign that rival teams were catching up. Chaz Mostert and Cam Waters shared the two victories, leaving Feeney and Brown to scrap for podiums.

But despite the call to action from Taupō, Feeney couldn’t bounce back in Perth. In his first true off weekend of the season, he unusually couldn’t even outqualify the sister car. lining up fifth and 12th behind Brown in fourth and third.

Brown converted his launches to a second place on Saturday and a third on Sunday.

Feeney was stuck in fifth for the first race, and though he made good progress on Sunday, it was enough for only seventh.

It added up to a quietly significant swing that put Feeney perilously close to going one race down early in the campaign.

Points swing: 65 points to Brown

Margin: 136 points

July form slump bites Feeney hard Townsville and Sydney

Feeney finally fought back spectacularly in Darwin, dominating the weekend with a pair of wins that saw him easily claim his only round win of the year so far.

What came next, however, arrested any semblance of momentum.

Both the Townsville 500 and the Sydney SuperNight were crammed into a lucrative July of racing, and Feeney couldn’t get within a sniff of the podium in either.

The first day in Townsville was arguably the most painful. Despite qualifying eighth ahead of Brown in 13th, the teammates reversed positions in the race, with Brown clambering onto the podium in third while Feeney made up just one place to finish seventh.

He was presented with an open goal on Sunday when a 17th-starting Brown crashed out on the first lap, condemning himself to a last-place finish, but Feeney again could muster only seventh.

Sydney was worse. On a weekend dominated by Ford, Brown scored the only General Motors podium of the weekend with third on Sunday.

Feeney was a solid step behind for the round, finishing ninth and 11th, the Sunday result coming off the back of his worst one-lap performance of the year, setting him up in 16th on the grid.

The total of those four races cost Feeney 45 points to Brown, but it would’ve been a whopping 108 points without Sunday in Townsville, when Brown was wiped out of the race, pointing to the momentum rushing towards the championship leader.

Points swing: 45 points to Brown

Margin: 153 points

Randle rocket turns the tide at the Tasmania SuperSprint

After weeks of soul searching, Feeney responded in Tasmania with his first pole in more than two months. He couldn’t convert to victory, however, in a strategic race that dropped him to third, but that still earnt him points back on Brown, who qualified 15th and recovered to seventh.

He was chasing down Brown in the closing stages of Sunday’s race when his championship outlook suddenly turned.

Tom Randle, eager to make up for a mistake that cost him a podium place earlier in the race, dive bombed Feeney into the hairpin, but he misjudged the move and spun the Triple Eight car around.

What would’ve been at least third place became a sad 15th for Feeney, costing him big points in the title race and putting him on the back foot for the rest of the campaign.

Just how costly was it?

He has been the marginally higher scorer in the three rounds since Tasmania, beating Brown 810-792.

If you were to expunge the 78-point loss on Sunday in Symmons Plains, Feeney would be facing a somewhat more manageable 102-point deficit.

Points swing: 45 points to Brown

Margin: 198 points

Brown limits the damage at the Gold Coast 500

Having been beaten to Brown and co-driver Scott Pye in Sandown and having finished ahead but only second in Bathurst, the always unpredictable Gold Coast 500 stood as Feeney’s last best chance to make meaningful inroads.

The goal was open on Saturday, when a qualifying crash put Brown out in 11th. Feeney qualified fourth.

But in a tense race behind the Tickford cars, Feeney could manage only third. With Brown recovering to seventh, the damage was well and truly limited, closing off the chance of a big points swing.

A cleaner Sunday for the title leader saw him start second ahead of Feeney in fifth, with the teammates finishing second and third.

It was a net swing back to Feeney for the weekend but wasn’t anywhere near enough to drag himself back to within striking distance, and while Triple Eight had nothing for Tickford on Saturday, you can’t help but look back on the first day of racing at Surfers Paradise as a golden chance gone begging.

Points swing: 24 points to Feeney

Margin: 180 points

And if you were to add up these major points swings?

You’d get 185 points — enough to put the championship on a knife’s edge at the final round of the year.

Instead Feeney is hoping to pull off the mother of all comebacks, first saving himself from elimination on Saturday and then aiming for a mammoth points swing in his favour on Sunday.

Win or lose, the 22-year-old will surely reflect over the off-season on how inconsistency has cost him a shot at a maiden championship — and where he’ll have to refine his game in 2025 for another title tilt.