Why Magpies ‘obviously’ aren’t contending this year… and the eight years of success that led them to this

As Garry Lyon rightly pointed out on AFL 360, Father Time is undefeated.

Collingwood has had a very strong run since their 2018 campaign, which saw them miss out on a premiership by just five points.

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In the seven full seasons since, the Magpies have won a premiership and made three further preliminary finals. But nine rounds into this year, some experts are beginning to believe the black and white are officially at a crossroads.

“This is not recent. They had their great qualifying final win (against Adelaide last year), and we all acknowledge that. You don’t gloss over that, because I think to get to a preliminary final was extraordinary last year,” Lyon told Fox Footy’s AFL 360 on Monday night.

“But before that, you’ve got to go back to Round 12 before they’ve taken a top-eight scalp, and they haven’t taken one since. The best they’ve come up with was the draw against Hawthorn two weeks ago.

“There’s a pattern here that’s emerged, and they are well short of the yardsticks of the competition.

“Because we’ve got such respect for them, no one’s quite prepared yet to go: ‘Nup, wipe them off the table’. But they’re no chance of contending, I don’t think, at the pointy end, given what we’ve seen not only this year, but the back half of last year.”

Craig McRae’s side now sits at 4-1-4 with a percentage of 99.9 — 10th on the ladder and carrying an ageing list profile. It’s a tricky situation many successful clubs eventually find themselves in.

Their forward line has been mostly poor in comparison to years gone by, while their inability to consistently beat fellow contenders has become increasingly concerning.

Collingwood also entered Saturday night dead last in the competition for centre and total clearances, with McRae telling Fox Footy pre-game it was one of several “beasts” his Pies have encountered this year.

Collingwood is fourth-last for scoring, and bottom-five for inside-50 retention, which speaks to a poor quality of forward entries.

Their score-per-inside-50 rate ranks second-last, ahead of only Richmond.

However, public conversation of late has still, at times, centred around Nick Daicos’ output in recent weeks — a peculiar talking point for some, given the much more glaring issues at hand.

“This narrative around Nick and his kicking; it’s worth a line in commentary, and that is it. That is problem 753. He will come back and remain one of the great distributors in footy,” Lyon added.

“The game on Anzac Day was the one I noticed the most, but the rest of it, don’t worry about that.

“Just push Nick Daicos to the side. All you’ve got to worry about with him is signing him.

“We say this all the time: Father Time is undefeated in footy, and they will be again. They played in a preliminary final; that’s what you’ve got to keep reminding yourself.

“At Round 9, is it obvious? Well, I think it’s obvious they’re not contending, for me anyway — and I’m happy to be proven wrong … I can’t see them being there at the end of the year.”

DRAFT REGRETS? AND FUTURE SUPERSTAR THEY COULD’VE HAD

Speaking on AFL Tonight earlier on Monday night, Fox Footy reporter Jon Ralph dissected some of the critical line-in-the-sand moments that history may tell us they wished fell another way.

“If it is that this is the end, they’re dying with their boots on,” Ralph began.

“They have had an exceptional ride, and I think most of their fans would say it’s been well worth it.”

“Craig Kelly, their chief executive, did say recently they’ve given away their first-rounders too cheaply. If they do want to be wicked and defy gravity, well they’re going to have to get a wriggle on with some of the later picks.

“Their first-rounders just haven’t worked out. They gave away high picks for the likes of Dan Houston and Lachie Schultz, as well as the points for Nick Daicos — and when they did that, they didn’t have great seasons. Those first-rounders ended up being really high.

“When they did end up taking those first-rounders, they were in good seasons and took the likes of Ed Allan, Harry DeMattia, Ed Allan and Finlay Macrae.”

It’s a strategy that helped deliver immediate success and a premiership in 2023, but one that now appears to be leaving the Magpies vulnerable as their list ages.

And with several younger stars flourishing elsewhere around the competition, the scrutiny around some of those aggressive list calls has only intensified.

“They could’ve waited to trade out their first-rounder for Nick Daicos. Imagine Finn Callaghan in the same side. But in fact, they gave up pick No.3, and of course, Finn is going to play 280 amazing games for GWS.

“They could’ve kept Jack Ginnivan, who’s proved to be a better player than Lachie Schultz. They gave away that Schultz first-rounder, and then of course, they had options for the likes of Murphy Reid, Jobe Shanahan and Jonty Faull with pick No.14 — but they’d already given up that pick.

“They’re decisions that you make, and they’re decisions that you die by. Right now, they’re dying by them.”

The challenge now for Collingwood will be finding a way to regenerate its list quickly enough to maximise the remaining years of veterans such as Scott Pendlebury, Steele Sidebottom and Jeremy Howe who are very much in the twilight of their careers.

“Is it over for Collingwood? Well, this is still a destination club. As Craig Kelly says, they’ve got an elite coach, elite facilities and we have people who want to come to us.

“We never write off Collingwood, but right now it does seem like it’s their darkest hour. Whether there’s a dawn coming, that’s something we have to assess in the coming seasons.”

PIES’ ‘RIGHT THING TO DO’ WITH PENDLES… AMID ‘AWKWARD’ SHORT-TERM REALITY

Collingwood’s management of Scott Pendlebury ahead of his record-breaking 433rd AFL game has been by far the most reported narrative to come out of the club in recent weeks, if not the year.

It means he’ll miss this Friday night’s clash against the top-of-the-table clash with Sydney at the SCG, with the intention of hosting his milestone match back at the MCG next Saturday evening against West Coast.

The decision has been hotly debated, but AFL 360 host Gerard Whateley is confident the Magpies have handled it well — just that they’ll need to endure a touch of short-term pain for long-term gain.

“This is the right thing to do for the good of the club. For the long-term, in 50 years time, we’ll look back and it will be the right celebration,” Whateley said.

“There’s an awkwardness around this week, but they’re just going to have to march their way through.

Lyon added: “They need him to play against Sydney, that’s the awkwardness … we understand the reasons.”

AND WOULD LYON PULL THE TRIGGER TO BRING IN BOBBY THIS FRIDAY NIGHT?

After dealing with his own personal circumstances in the last six to 12 months, 2023 Norm Smith Medallist Bobby Hill has now played three consecutive games at VFL level in his pursuit of a senior recall.

With both Pendlebury and captain Darcy Moore (concussion) to miss Friday’s trip to Sydney, Craig McRae may be within his rights to consider bringing back Hill into the senior side for some extra spark.

Garry Lyon, however, was steadfast in his belief the 26-year-old needs to earn his way back to the AFL at least a little while longer.

“Under no circumstances would I play Bobby Hill on Friday night, that’s just me,” Lyon said.

“They’ve got to start rewarding some of these kids, and find out whether or not these blokes that they’ve taken in drafts are able to play.

“Bobby will come back at some stage, but there’s people who have been beavering away and hammering away in the VFL I’m told.

“So, no, not Bobby for me this week. Not this week, he’s got to earn the right to get back in this side.”