Why Port won’t admit defeat with Ken plan; boss could be at new club in 2026: AFL coach carousel

Much like the player movement scene, the storylines that revolve around AFL coaches never seem to sleep — not even after Round 1.

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From premiership winners to those in their second-year, all 18 coaches sit differently amid a league where competition for the ultimate success has arguably never been stronger.

In the latest episode of the Midweek Tackle digital-only show ‘Tackle The Headline’, Herald Sun reporters Lauren Wood, Jon Ralph and Scott Gullan dissected the league’s six coaches who look to be under the most pressure to succeed in 2025, and the narratives around their position at each club.

MATTHEW NICKS

Adelaide coach since the turn of the decade is still yet to see September finals action since taking the reins at West Lakes, however Sunday’s hit out against St Kilda suggests that 2025 might finally be the year that fans see an eight-year drought broken. Nicks was cruelly robbed of finals in 2023 for reasons beyond his control, but even a repeat of such a mishap may not be enough to save him if his side don’t play finals. “Nicks has to make the eight … he’s got everything in place now, he’s had enough time. Adelaide is a club that doesn’t tolerates things not going according to plan,” Midweek Tackle’s Scott Gullan said. “If they don’t make the eight, I don’t want to be Matthew Nicks this September. Fox Footy reporter Jon Ralph added: “They have no excuse that exists in the AFL landscape not to make the eight.” The Crows next play Essendon, North Melbourne and Gold Coast with a rare chance to start their season 4-0 with a bit of luck.

KEN HINKLEY

As we already know, Nicks’ cross-town rival Hinkley won’t be at Alberton this year, with his succession plan alongside assistant coach Josh Carr officially underway… in the worst possible way. Power fans will be praying that their biggest loss under Hinkley last Saturday to start their season was merely an anomaly of the highest order, but unless things go far more pear-shaped, don’t expect to see any changes up top. “Here’s the one characteristic that defines all of these (Port Adelaide) people … stubbornness. There’s no way that they’re going to say: ‘You’re right critics … let’s sack the coach!’” Ralph said.

“I understand the deep, dark hole they’ve put themselves in for Round 1, but I can’t see any situation in which he moves on (before season’s end). Scotty Gullan added: “Ken will walk away if it becomes so, so bad — but I don’t think it will, Port have enough talent. They’ll keep bobbling along … and then Josh (Carr) will have a real proper crack at it. Stubbornness will win out here. A loss to Richmond this weekend would put his club into dire straits, but even after their thumping last week, Port Adelaide will still go into the home clash as favourites.

JUSTIN LONGMUIR

Now the owner of one of the more complex coaching contracts in the league, Fremantle’s Justin Longmuir, similarly to Power counterpart Ken Hinkley, got off to a start this season that was far from desirable. Unlike the other 17 current coaches, Longmuir is currently on an “ongoing employment agreement”, with his deal initially expiring at the end of this year. And while it no doubt gives him and the club flexibility, Ralph highlighted that if things go south in 2025, it could make for a much tougher agreement between the two parties. “Does (Longmuir’s contract) make it easier to bring in another coach? Absolutely. Does it make it easier to sack Justin Longmuir? Absolutely, so he has to be on shaky ground,” explained Ralph. “Once they got on their home dunghill, once they start winning a string of games — they’ve got an extra game against North Melbourne at home — I think he’s 50/50 to be coaching next year. But I don’t think there’s any situation (where) they sack him mid-year.”

LUKE BEVERIDGE

The Footscray premiership coach remains the only top dog out of contract beyond 2025, and it’s set to make for a more-than-intriguing storyline throughout this year. As his side battles injuries and notable absentees from their best 23, the odds are stacked against Beveridge to make things work — but that’s never stopped him from succeeding before. However, Scotty Gullan believes the most likely narrative will end in Beveridge and the club mutually parting ways. “I think this will organically peter out to an end where Luke is gone at the end of the year. The start they’ve got, the players out … they’re potentially going to be 1-4 or 1-5,” said Gullan. “The club’s not going to sign him mid-year now, this is going the whole distance. If I’m Luke, I’d be looking elsewhere because I think he’s a good career coach; he’s had a great run at Footscray. “I think organically, this is going to end — and I think they both want that too, to be honest.” His Herald Sun colleague Jon Ralph added that while he may not be coaching at the Bulldogs, he could instead be coaching elsewhere if the opportunity presents itself. “He knows he’s in a very good position to coach next year, it just probably isn’t (at) the Western Bulldogs,” Ralph said.

ALASTAIR CLARKSON

Now in his third year at Arden Street, the blowtorch is beginning to burn on Alastair Clarkson’s Kangaroos to show notable improvement within their win-loss ratio. With talent now left-right and centre — along with several key senior recruits — 2025 poses as the year North should make a steep incline up the ladder. And as Jon Ralph says, the likes of club officials Jen Watt and Sonja Hood are “chips in” on Clarkson amid his five-year contract. “They’ve invested so much in him, they understand that they need to improve their defensive methodologies,” said Ralph. “You saw on the weekend how much talent they’ve got, it will click for them at some stage this year. They can win six or eight games and that’s enough.” An eight-win season this year would mean the Kangaroos equal their victory tally across the last three years combined.

ADEM YZE

Lastly, but certainly not least, was the contract of Adem Yze discussed — fresh off his side’s shock Round 1 win over Carlton last Thursday night. Some pundits predicted not a single win for his side this year, but evidently Yze has already integrated his youth and senior players well enough to a point they can defeat premiership fancies. That being said, Gullan would still like to see much more before a contract extension is considered for the second-year coach. “I don’t think they should do it (an early contract extension). They should let him go through to next year, let him show his good development as a coach,” said the Herald Sun journalist. “There’s no need to re-sign him earlier. I don’t agree with this ‘it takes the pressure off me’ (mentality) … you’re a senior coach, he’s been in the game a long time. He’ll handle it, just coach. “At the end of your tenure, we’ll go: ‘We can see what you’re doing mate, here’s a couple more’.” An upset over Port Adelaide this Saturday would shock the competition once again, but evidently they can’t be counted out.