Qualifying for the Japanese Grand Prix simultaneously went exactly as expected and threw up several surprises.
Max Verstappen has been in total control all weekend and duly converted to pole position.
But Sergio Pérez gave him a serious challenge for top spot for the first time in 12 months.
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Max Verstappen starting on pole in Japan | 01:01
McLaren again did well around a circuit that suits its car almost perfectly.
But Ferrari, with the second-best car all season so far, was not really a match, slipping into third in pace order behind the outstanding Lando Norris.
Yuki Tsunoda was excellent to crack Q3, and he again outqualified Daniel Ricciardo.
But Ricciardo, despite the disadvantage of having had no real Friday practice time, was on his teammate’s pace — perhaps to the surprise of some who have already written off the Aussie veteran.
Red Bull Racing will start the race as favourite, but the result isn’t a given. With little race simulation data, with a mixed set of tyres available to the top 10 and with strategy unclear, the Japanese Grand Prix is set up to be a fascinating afternoon of racing.
PÉREZ SNAPS EMBARRASSING QUALI STREAK
The last time Pérez qualified on the front row for a grand prix he looked like a genuine championship contender.
It might be difficult to remember such a time. You have to go all the way back to the 2023 Miami Grand Prix to find this dated statistic, fully 21 rounds ago.
It’s a remarkable run considering the dominant machinery he’s had at his disposal.
In Miami Pérez had just come off pole and victory at the Azerbaijan Grand Prix — and sprint pole and victory at that same race — to close to within six points of Verstappen’s lead.
His pole position in Miami was somewhat fortuitous, with a red flag preventing Verstappen from setting a time.
That’s as far as his fortune went, however.
He was embarrassingly pantsed during the race, with Verstappen beating him from ninth on the grid.
The result was psychologically destructive.
Not only has he not won a grand prix since then, but he hasn’t beaten Verstappen since then either.
Even more alarming was the effect on his qualifying performance. His average qualifying gap to Verstappen from Miami to the end of last season was a massive 0.631 seconds.
That poor one-lap form was behind his anaemic podium count — he’s collected just seven trophies since Miami — and the speculation that he would be guaranteed to lose his seat in 2025, if not earlier.
This year he’s more than halved that gap.
Including his slender 0.066-second defeat to Verstappen in Japan, his average qualifying deficit stands at a respectable 0.280 seconds.
Results like this — especially at a track like Suzuka — are exactly what Pérez needs to rebuild the confidence sapped from him in Miami last year.
And if he can convert in the race tomorrow, he can count this weekend among the arguments for Red Bull Racing to retain him next season.
FRONTRUNNERS MAKE GAINS ON RED BULL RACING
This might’ve been a straightforward Red Bull Racing front-row lockout, but actually this result is good news for the state of this season’s competitive picture.
Suzuka Circuit was built as a test track. It’s highly demanding aerodynamically, with a combination of high, medium and low-speed corners that puts the car’s aero package through its paces.
It’s why Red Bull Racing has been so good here in recent years, having had such a firm handle on the ground-effect era.
The same is true again this year, but the margins are much closer.
Last year Verstappen gave Red Bull Racing a whopping 0.581-second margin in qualifying.
This year that shrank to 0.292 seconds — less than half the advantage.
And that’s just McLaren. Every one of the frontrunners has made inroads on Red Bull Racing.
The teams are listed in this year’s qualifying order.
Suzuka year-on-year gains, 2023–24
Red Bull Racing: pole position
McLaren: 0.289 seconds closer
Ferrari: 0.180 seconds closer
Aston Martin: 1.194 seconds closer
Mercedes: 0.462 seconds closer
RB: 0.210 seconds closer
RB has been included due to Yuki Tsunoda making the top 10 on the grid in both season.
The numbers above are heartening in the context of how close this and last year’s Japanese grands prix are on the calendar, split by just six months.
Last year’s race was near the end of the season, when most teams had ended their development programs. This year’s one is near the start, before much of the development work has started.
What we’re seeing is mostly off-season gains.
This tells us that Red Bull Racing is finding less room to improve and that everyone really is catching up.
It should also leave us optimistic that the field will continue to close through the season as more upgrades come on tap, proving that the long you leave regulations stable, the more likely it is that everyone can catch up.
RICCIARDO SALVAGES QUALIFYING AFTER FRIDAY DISASTER
There are some keen to stick the boot into Daniel Ricciardo after a fourth straight qualifying defeat to Yuki Tsunoda.
In that queue in fact is Ricciardo himself, who could bring himself only to “appreciate we’ve done well” in a terse radio exchange on his cool-down lap.
“All right Daniel, I know you always [feel like you] need to do a little bit better, but you should be pleased. We’re in a good place,” he was told by Pierre Hamelin, his race engineer.
“I’m obviously not [happy], but I appreciate we’ve done well,” Ricciardo replied.
But Hamelin is right. In the context of Ricciardo’s difficult Japanese Grand Prix weekend and his season so far, 11th and just 0.055 seconds behind teammate Yuki Tsunoda is a good result.
Don’t forget that Ricciardo got no meaningful running on Friday. He lost all of FP1 when RB used one of its mandatory rookie outings on Ayumu Iwasa, which ended up biting Ricciardo hard when FP2 was rendered meaningless by rain.
His first experience of the circuit in this car was on Saturday morning, but even then he didn’t exactly clock up massive mileage, completing 24 laps.
His next session was qualifying.
The difference between his and Tsunoda’s fastest Q2 laps was clear, even if it was marginal.
Ricciardo lacked confidence in the high-speed corners, especially the esses — understandable given his lack of track time and the RB’s loose rear axle.
He made almost all of it back in the slower turns, like the hairpin and out of the final chicane.
“I have mixed emotions today,” he said. “There’s a bit of frustration but it’s also encouraging to be so close to Q3 after a tricky start to the year.
“Considering that yesterday I had only a few laps and they were in damp conditions, today’s qualifying was a good session.
“After yesterday, we certainly see some positives that are encouraging.
“It’s just frustrating to be knocked out by just half a tenth, as it would have been nice to give it to the guys today.”
Of course the target is still to outqualify his teammate. But on the mission to recover from his slow start and rebuild his momentum, Suzuka was a good first step.
LANCE STROLL CUP CONTINUES
The size of the pace gap between the top five teams and the rest is so large that purely on merit the backmarkers can’t expect to qualify inside the top 10 or score points.
It requires a mistake or exceptional circumstances for that margin to be bridged.
Three times this season those circumstances have been generated by Lance Stroll.
In Bahrain a poor qualifying performance opened the door to Nico Hülkenberg qualifying 10th.
A clumsy crash in Saudi Arabia then allowed Hülkenberg to score points.
Now an inexplicably insipid qualifying result has given Tsunoda another crack at Q3 and a chance to score points at successive weekends.
Stroll hasn’t been the only driver or team to make mistakes so far this season, but he’s certainly been the most frequent.
He risks turning the fight for points into the de facto Lance Stroll Cup.
His deficit to teammate Fernando Alonso, who drove the upgraded Aston Martin to an excellent fifth, was enormous. In Q1 alone the margin was a whopping 0.770 seconds.
The key difference-makers were Dunlop Curve, the long left-hander out of the esses; Spoon Curve, the double apex leading onto the back straight; and the chicane, particularly on exit.
“Everything felt fine,” he summed afterwards. “I’m just very slow today. There was no pace in myself and my car — the car looks quick and Fernando looks quick.
“Just one of those days. I don’t know. I don’t have answers.”
His average qualifying deficit to Alonso is 0.497 seconds, easily the largest of any teammate pairing after four rounds.
It was similar last year, when only the lacklustre Pérez and rookie Logan Sargeant were further behind their teammates.
It’s hard to know if there’s any real pressure on Stroll’s seat at Aston Martin, and it’s unfair to speculate based solely on one particularly poor result.
But with Aston Martin locked in a close battle with Mercedes — just one points separates them after three grands prix — and with star signing Alonso a chance to retire or leave next season, someone at the team must be wondering what might be achieved with a better balanced driver pairing.
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