In the aftermath of Australia’s worst loss on home soil in 12 years, there is one guarantee leading into the second Test of the Border-Gavaskar Trophy in Adelaide.
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When it comes to the nation’s preferred top order, expect it to be business as usual. As Fox Cricket expert Kerry O’Keeffe said, the philosophy of selectors is to “pick and stick”.
“We’re in this situation where we’re playing a high quality team and they’ve taken an early lead, but we can’t panic,” O’Keeffe told foxsports.com.au.
“There’s four Tests to go and things are going to happen. I think Australia will bounce back in Adelaide.”
That does not mean the selection panel headed by George Bailey is not casting its eye further afield, but more from the knowledge this is an ageing Australian team than as an immediate response to the demoralising 295-run defeat in Perth.
No matter what unfolds in Adelaide and the rest of the summer, at some stage over the next two years Australia is likely to have to find a new opener and No. 4, and potentially a No. 3 if Marnus Labuschagne cannot resolve his current woes.
If success breeds contentment – and the Australian team under Andrew McDonald and Pat Cummins have enjoyed plenty, regardless of the cries from critics – failures expose cracks.
From midway through the Ashes tour of England last year, the nation’s top-order has been inconsistent, repeatedly placing the side under pressure.
In 13 completed innings since the Lords saga last June, Australia has passed 300 only four times, but the quality of the nation’s bowlers has provided a layer of protection.
It is rare the top six have fired at the same time and few have done so for an extended period, though Mitch Marsh enjoyed a strong summer at home and in New Zealand.
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Former England captain Michael Vaughan and ex-Indian coach Ravi Shastri put on the agenda a potential major worry for Australia – where are the next generation of batters?
“I just wonder about what’s underneath. What’s underneath this Australian batting line-up really pushing the standards in the first team?” Vaughan said.
“Standards generally get driven in a team because you’ve got many players pushing for places in it. I just don’t see too many doing that.
“You don’t want to be looking all the time in the past, but when Australia had a batting line up that had many world class players in it, I reckon you had seven or eight world class players not in it and that’s just in the batting department.”
Fox Cricket expert Brett Lee said the decision to promote Steve Smith to opener post the Warner series indicated selectors are not convinced in the talent below.
“What concerns me is that the selectors have gone the last two batsmen to open for Australia, they’ve gone with Steven Smith – brought him out of his number four position where he was averaging nearly 60 – up to the top of the innings because they had no one else in there, in their words, that could fill that gap,” he said.
“I don’t think that was fair on Steve Smith, even though he would have elected to have taken that opportunity and that challenge. I think he’s better suited at number 4 – I thought he looked really good (on Monday).
“They then have another opportunity to go for another opening batsman and they go for (Nathan) McSweeney. He’s a fantastic player, he’s done very well in Shield cricket but never actually had that opportunity to bat in that top position
“Some will say if he bats three or four, is there a difference? Well it is a difference. It is a different role. The concern is, what message does that send to the other opening batsmen around Australia?”
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Identifying who is next in line for Australia is less of a challenge than predicting what the top six will look like for the Ashes and the era after that.
As the reserve in Perth, West Australian wicketkeeper Josh Inglis is clearly in the frame for a role. Could it come as soon as Adelaide? Cummins could not rule out the prospect of a change on Monday night, though he stressed he is not a selector.
India opted to play reserve wicketkeeper Dhruv Jurel as a specialist batter in Perth and, while he did not deliver, desperate times can lead to panicked decisions. Again, O’Keeffe doubts that will happen.
Cameron Green, clearly, will return to the top order when fit given Australian selectors were so keen to find a spot for him last summer heading into the New Zealand series.
He shapes as a future No. 4, depending on how long Steve Smith continues on, with the champion batter desperately trying to find his best form again.
With a view to extended changes should the run drought continue, Lee declared “age is a cliche” and should not be a consideration, despite concerns about the age of the current squad.
“I don’t care if someone is 19 and they’ve got it. I don’t care if someone is 38 and they’ve got it,” he said.
Alex Carey leads the top 10 run scorers in the Sheffield Shield. The list also features McSweeney and Inglis.
All rounder Hilton Cartwright, 32, is second. The West Australian all-rounder played two Tests in 2017 before falling out of favour with the national selectors.
Unfortunately for Cartwright, Western Australia is packed with talented all-rounders – Green, Aaron Hardie, Marcus Stoinis, Ashton Agar to name a few – but his recent Sheffield Shield form won’t go unnoticed.
He also provides an additional seam option, capable of helping shoulder the bowling workload instead of relying on Labuschagne’s village seamers.
Then there’s Marcus Harris, also 32. The Victorian was handed a national contract last year, serving as Australia’s reserve batter during the Ashes – he looked poised to replace David Warner following his retirement.
However, following his disappointing start to his 2023/24 summer, Green was shoehorned in the Test starting XI with Queensland’s Matthew Renshaw selected as the squad’s reserve batter, leapfrogging Harris in the pecking order.
Harris started his summer with a first-class against Tasmania in Melbourne and a gritty half-century against India A at the MCG – but again it wasn’t enough, with national selectors reinventing McSweeney as an opener rather than selecting a specialist.
A forgotten name in Australian cricket, 33-year-old Peter Handscomb, has been peeling off mountains of runs across formats over the past 12 months. After a prolific County Championship campaign in England, the Victorian returned home and notched 341 runs at 48.71 in the Sheffield Shield.
Handscomb hasn’t represented Australia since last year’s Border-Gavaskar Trophy in India, where he scored an impressive half-century in tough conditions in Delhi. Don’t be surprised if he features in Australia’s squad for the upcoming Test tour in Sri Lanka.
Going down the list there’s also Jake Weatherald, who’s 30, Ben McDermott, who turns 30 next month, and Jake Doran, who is ranked 10th, is a wicketkeeper batter in an era where Australia carries strength in the area.
Meanwhile, Tasmanian all-rounder Beau Webster has been one of the most consistent players in the Sheffield Shield over the last couple of summers. The 30-year-old is a decent chance of making his Test debut should Marsh pull up sore at any stage this summer, although national selectors have also shown a liking to Hardie, who was offered a central contract earlier this year.
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In an encouraging sign after a barren Spring, Cameron Bancroft scored 105 not out against South Australia on Tuesday, an innings in keeping with his domination of domestic attacks over the last two years rather than the horrors of the last month. But they are scarcely fresh faces and have been tried, tested and overlooked.
The outlier is Sam Konstas. The teenager has been earmarked for national duties, with his prospects soaring as his older compatriots continue to get out.
Lee believes Konstas will feature as the team evolves and hopes selectors tell those coming into the Australian team, when their time comes, that they will back them for an extended period.
“I would be inclined to go with the youth, pending that they’ve got the talent. I know Sam Konstas has got the talent,” the Fox Cricket analyst said.
“What they need to say to these young guys coming through is you’ve got the whole Australian summer – five Tests, 10 innings, to go out there and showcase what you can do.
“I hope that’s the message (McSweeney) has got, so he knows he’s not looking over his shoulder going, ‘Are they going to drop me after one Test?’ Because that’s a horrible and a brutal position to be in.”
Whether the New South Welshman would have fared any better against Jasprit Bumrah in Perth is a matter of conjecture.
Given the quality of the Indian bowling attack – Mohammed Shami is still to arrive – the opportunity that opened with Smith’s retreat might well prove to be a poisoned chalice, though O’Keeffe is also of the view selectors “will persevere” with McSweeney for an extended period to give him a chance to flourish.
Similarly to Lee, who spent an extended time on the periphery of the Australian XI before debuting in the Boxing Day Test against India 25 years ago, Mike Hussey had to wait as well.
He said age should not be a barrier either. This brings players like Harris and Handscomb, who is considered a candidate for the Sri Lanka tour in late January and early February, and even Bancroft back into the equation if things worsen at the top of the order.
“I just think you pick the best players, the guys who have been dominating the level below. Whether they are 19 years of age or they are 33, it shouldn’t really matter,” he said.
“The guys are so fit these days … even if you start at 33, you can still play until you are nearly 40. Five years of Test cricket is a long time – you can nearly play 50 Tests which is a decent career.
“My basic philosophy on it is you select the guys who have earnt it and dominated the level below.”
Hussey believes a talent like Konstas will benefit from more extensive Sheffield Shield experience and hopes that selectors continue to place a priority on domestic cricket.
“For Konstas he’s an interesting one. He’s just learning his game – he’s only a young guy. It would be a tough ask to throw him into a Test series like this,” he said.
“Let him just play some Shield cricket for a couple of years, score lots of runs. Develop his game and then when he’s ready to go, I know there’s a lot of New South Welshmen who want to get him in there.
“It will be an interesting discussion behind closed doors about how you are going to manage the transition of the next Australian team.
“I think you’ve also got to show a lot of faith in the Sheffield Shield system, and that’s why we’ve got to keep promoting it. Keep getting our best players to play in it as often as we can.
“It’s been a real secret to our success in Australia … having that really strong competition in first class cricket. It plays such an important role in developing our next Australian stars. There’s talent in there … so back it in.”
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