Only five games remain for Tottenham to salvage their top flight future and for Arsenal to break their 22-year title drought as the English Premier League season comes down to the wire at both ends of the table.
Ahead of a trip to last-placed Wolves in the early hours of Sunday morning Australian time, Tottenham sit inside the relegation zone, two points from a safety, following a horrendous run of form.
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Spurs have not won any of their last 15 league games, meaning they are without a Premier League victory in 2026.
If Tottenham fail to defeat Wolves at the Molineux, it will equal the club’s worst winless league run in its history.
That unwanted mark was set 91 years ago.
The famous Opta supercomputer, which is tasked with predicting the Premier League table every season, is not liking Tottenham’s chances.
They have been given a 59.1 per cent chance of joining Burnley and Wolves in being relegated to the Championship.
Two games into his tenure, new boss Roberto De Zerbi, who is the third manager Spurs have appointed since sacking Ange Postecoglou last June, certainly has a massive task on his hands.
Meanwhile, Manchester City and Arsenal cannot afford any slip ups at the top of the table.
The Champions League places are a little more assured, but the race for the other European spots is a lot tighter.
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RELEGATION BATTLE
With Wolves and Burnley already down, the race to avoid finishing 18th and the drop is most likely down to Tottenham and West Ham.
Nottingham Forest are only five points ahead of Spurs and are not out of the woods yet.
But Forest have been impressive in their recent outings and are also carrying the momentum created by reaching a Europa League semi-final against Aston Villa – with their first leg to be played next Friday morning Australian time and the second leg to follow a week later.
Leeds are mathematically still a chance too, but they are almost certainly set to avoid going straight back down as they sit nine points clear of Tottenham.
Leeds are also in good form, having gone unbeaten in their last five matches, including winning two of their last three.
18. Tottenham — 31 points, -11 goal difference, 33 matches played
Run Home: Wolves (A), Aston Villa (A), Leeds (H), Chelsea (A), Everton (H).
Wolves away stands as the clearest opportunity for Spurs to bank three points for the first time since they won at Crystal Palace on December 29.
The trip to Villa falls at a good time as it is between the two legs of their Europa League semi-final, but fourth-placed Villa will also be eager to lock in a Champions League place irrespective of how they fare against Forest.
Leeds may provide an opportunity if they are assured safety by that point.
But De Zerbi would arguably rather take his team on the road as they have not won at their US$1 billion stadium since December 6.
Chelsea at Stamford Bridge and Everton at home shape as tricky matches to finish despite Chelsea’s horrible run of recent form.
The Blues have not scored a goal in their last five outings, which they have all lost.
But after sacking manager Liam Rosenoir, they will be trying to bounce back to secure Europa League place.
Everton remain an outside chance for earning European football too.
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17. West Ham — 33 points, – 17 goal difference, 33 matches played
Run Home: Everton (H), Brentford (A), Arsenal (H), Newcastle (A), Leeds (H).
Three of their remaining games coming against teams in the top half of the table is a tricky proposition for the Hammers.
But they have been in strong form, picking up eight points in their five games.
Three matches at home will fill them with confidence that they can pick up valuable points in front of their home fans.
The away trips to Brentford and Newcastle at least come with both team in wretched run of form to end the season.
The Bees have racked up five straight draws, while the Magpies have lost three on the bounce.
Spoiling Arsenal’s title hopes would bring great delight to the East London club, while the final day at home to Leeds has the potential to be massive.
16. Nottingham Forest — 36 points, -9 goal difference, 33 matches played
Run Home: Sunderland (A), Chelsea (A), Newcastle (H), Manchester United (A), Bournemouth (H).
Forest are realistically one win away from safety.
There run of games is not easy with three teams inside the top eight, but they will no doubt have plenty of belief courtesy of their recent form.
Unbeaten in their last five matches, including two wins in their last three starts, is exactly the sort of form line a club needs in a relegation scrap.
But if things go pear-shaped in the league and well in the Europa League, the bizarre scenario of being in the Championship but playing Champions League football could play out.
It has been a strange season for Forest with current boss Vítor Pereira their fourth manager of the season.
It seems like a long time ago that Nuno Espirito Santo was sacked and Ange Postecoglou came in for a miserable seven-game stretch before Sean Dyche took over.
Forest owner Evangelos Marinakis is a chaos merchant, so it would be unsurprising if more carnage was to come for Forest.
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TITLE RACE
1. Manchester City — 70 points, +37 goal difference, 33 matches played
Run Home: Everton (A), Brentford (H), Bournemouth (A), Crystal Palace (H), Aston Villa (H).
On paper, City have the tougher run compared to Arsenal.
But they have the superior form with three straight wins and having gone unbeaten in all domestic competitions across their last 16 games.
Their last league loss came at Old Trafford in January and Pep Guardiola’s squad have a knack for being strong finishers having won six of the last eight Premier League titles.
Regardless, Everton and Bournemouth can be tricky places to travel and shape as their potential banana peel games.
Three games at the Etihad, including Villa potentially days after a Europa League final on the last day of the day season, is a big boost.
City have not lost in the league at home since they were stunned by Tottenham back in August.
2. Arsenal — 70 points, +37 goal difference, 33 matches played
Run Home: Newcastle (H), Fulham (H), West Ham (A), Burnley (H), Crystal Palace (A).
Arsenal only sit second because their goal tally of 63 is three less than City’s. That is how close this title race is.
Manchester United great Gary Neville perhaps heaped pressure on the Gunners by declaring their remaining run of fixtures “couldn’t be better”.
“You’d snap your hand off all day if you got offered those five as your last five games of the season going for a title,” Neville said.
Fulham, Crystal Palace and Newcastle are languishing in 12th, 13 and 14th, while West Ham are in a relegation battle and Burnley are already down.
Palace on the final day also could be preparing for a Europa Conference League final.
It is truly ideal, but what is not is the form of Mikel Arteta’s side.
They have lost their last two matches, most recently against City but more concerningly at home to Bournemouth in their previous outing.
Eager to avoid a fourth straight runner-up finish, destiny really is in Arsenal’s hands.
RACE FOR EUROPEAN PLACES
The five Champions League spots are close to being decided, unless Liverpool collapse on the home stretch.
A fortnight ago, that looked very plausible but last season’s champions have calmed the nerves at Anfield with back-to-back wins, including in a Merseyside Derby at Everton’s new stadium.
Brighton are surging if the Reds do slip-up, however.
While Chelsea’s free fall has made the race for sixth and a Europa League place, and seventh with a Europa Conference League place much more interesting.
3. Manchester United — 58 points, +13 goal difference, 33 matches played
Run Home: Brentford (H), Liverpool (H), Sunderland (A), Nottingham Forest (H), Brighton (A).
The Red Devils will be returning to Champions League football for the first time since the 2023/24 season.
It has been an impressive turnaround under interim boss Michael Carrick as they sat sixth when he took over from Ruben Amorim in early January.
Now, it remains to be seen whether the former United captain get the job permanently.
4. Aston Villa — 58 points, +6 goal difference, 33 matches played
Run Home: Fulham (A), Tottenham (H), Burnley (A), Liverpool (H), Manchester City (A).
It was only a short time ago that the wheels appeared to be falling off for Unai Emery’s side.
But they are unbeaten in their last three league appearances, including winning two of those outings, plus they have made a European semi-final.
Villa have put together a strong campaign to give themselves two avenues to the Champions League next season.
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5. Liverpool — 55 points, +11 goal difference, 33 matches played
Run Home: Crystal Palace (H), Manchester United (A), Chelsea (H), Aston Villa (A), Brentford (H).
Arne Slot’s squad have solidified with consecutive victories, but they still face tricky tasks in United and Villa, both away in their remaining five games.
Palace and Chelsea present big opportunities to lock in their Champions League place, however.
Then Anfield will be eager to send off club legend Mohamed Salah in style on the final day against Brentford.
6. Brighton — 50 points, +9 goal difference, 34 matches played
Run Home: Newcastle (A), Wolves (H), Leeds (A), Manchester United (H).
The Seagulls are the form team in the league with no picking up more than the 13 they have collected in their last five games.
Three matches against sides sitting in the bottom third of the table is ideal to make a run at Liverpool, but they have played an extra game.
Brighton will likely need to be close to flawless to cause a boilover.
7. Bournemouth — 49 points, 0 goal difference, 34 matches played
Run Home: Crystal Palace (H), Fulham (A), Manchester City (H), Nottingham Forest (A).
The Cherries are also in-form, being unbeaten in their last five matches and have a friendly run of fixtures.
Three of their remaining contests are against teams in the bottom half of the table, while they also have the power to shake-up the title race in their trip to Manchester.
Bournemouth are well-placed to be playing in Europe next season.
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8. Chelsea — 48 points, +8 goal difference, 34 matches played
Run Home: Nottingham Forest (H), Liverpool (A), Tottenham (H), Sunderland (A).
What a disaster.
Five losses in a row without scoring a goal has derailed Chelsea’s push for a Champions League place.
Now, they will be hoping for a new manager bounce to get them a spot in Europe next season.
9. Brentford — 48 points, +4 goal difference, 33 matches played
Run Home: Manchester United (A), West Ham (H), Manchester City (A), Crystal Palace (H), Liverpool (A)
Five straight draws means the Bees are undoubtedly tough to play against.
But they’re going to need to find some wins to push for Europe.
They also have the chance to shape the battles at the either end of the table too.
10. Everton — 47 points, +1 goal difference, 33 matches played
Run Home: West Ham (A), Manchester City (H), Crystal Palace (A), Sunderland (H), Tottenham (A).
A loss in the first Merseyside Derby at home certainly stung their chances, but the Toffees cannot be discounted.
They will need an excellent run, but if anything three of their five matches will have a big day on the relegation battle and title race.
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