Australian Open 2025: Day 12 Talking Points analysis, Novak Djokovic vs Alex Zverev semi-final preview, Madison Keys makes final after racquet switch, latest news

Novak Djokovic is on the brink of one of the greatest achievements in tennis history – but it’s not the one you’re thinking of.

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Yes, the Serbian superstar is trying to win a 25th grand slam, ending all doubt over his status as the greatest of all-time.

He already holds the men’s record, and the Open Era record, but just needs to surpass Margaret Court’s contentious total of 24 – most of which were won before the tournaments became professional.

Winning his record-extending 11th Australian Open, and notching up the quarter-century, is clearly his greatest goal. Djokovic purposefully played less tennis in 2024 so he would be in peak condition for the slams – not that he was able to stop Jannik Sinner or Carlos Alcaraz anyway.

But on Tuesday night, he did stop Alcaraz, the world No.3. And it set him up for another first-time grand slam feat.

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WORLD VIEW: Demon may be tennis’ new ‘nearly man’… that deserves respect not ridicule

DEMON HITS BACK: De Minaur returns serve on brutal ‘zero self belief’ claim after ‘surreal’ clash with World No.1

TALKING POINTS: Truth behind rout to fuel Demon doubters; how Novak exploited dirty open secret

No man in the Open Era has beaten the top three seeds to win a grand slam, never mind consecutively, in the biggest three matches of the tournament.

And Djokovic, having beaten No.3 seed Alcaraz, now faces No.2 seed Alex Zverev, with No.1 seed Jannik Sinner likely awaiting him in the final.

A few players have completed the 3-2-1 feat at non-slams, including Alcaraz at Madrid 2022, while Djokovic himself beat the top three in the ATP rankings at Montreal 2007 – though the seeds did not reflect the rankings exactly at that event.

But it would only be fitting if Djokovic achieved official tennis GOAT status by completing the toughest run possible, through the top three opponents in the draw (though nobody would argue Zverev is actually the second-best player on tour).

It has happened on the women’s side before, and fittingly was achieved by another GOAT contender in Steffi Graf – who won her 22nd and final slam at the 1999 French Open by beating top three seeds Lindsay Davenport, Monica Seles and Martina Hingis in the quarters, semis and final.

THE CLEAR EDGE DJOKOVIC HAS IN SEMI-FINAL

As noted, Zverev’s No.2 ranking is more about him playing a hell of a lot of tennis in 2024, and being consistently very good (but not great).

On route to the world No.2 ranking, he won two Masters events, with a big chunk of points coming from the ATP Finals as well.

But Zverev only made one final, at the French Open against Carlos Alcaraz, which he lost from two sets to one up – otherwise he made just one other semi-final, in Australia, where he lost from two sets up.

Are you noticing a pattern?

In Zverev’s only other grand slam final, at the 2020 US Open against Dominic Thiem, he lost from two sets up.

The German was also two sets up on Taylor Fritz in the fourth round of last year’s Wimbledon, and lost.

These similar results on big stages have seen Zverev develop a reputation as tennis’ biggest star who just can’t win the big one.

Sure, one of his top rivals from this generation Daniil Medvedev has lost more slam finals, but four of those losses were to Djokovic or Nadal. And more importantly, Medvedev did win one, and in dramatic circumstances too – stopping Djokovic from completing his 2021 grand slam in straight sets at the US Open.

In a sport like tennis, which is such a pure one-on-one battle (and until recently didn’t allow mid-match coaching), mental strength plays an enormous role.

And the gap between Zverev and his semi-final opponent Djokovic would appear to be enormous.

Djokovic is a master of mentality, and we saw it in the quarter-finals earlier this week against Alcaraz. We’ll never know how injured he actually was, but we witnessed the familiar pattern of Djokovic looking down and out before stunning the rival who seems unable to take advantage of his limited status.

Speaking on the US version of 60 Minutes in late 2023, Djokovic delved into his mental strength.

“I might appear locked in. But trust me, there is a storm inside,” he said.

“Always the biggest battle is within, right? You have your doubts and fears. I feel it every single match. I don’t like this kind of a mindset that I see a lot in sports. Like, ‘Just think positive thoughts. Be optimistic. There is no room for failure. There is no room for doubts’, and stuff like this. it’s impossible to do that.

“You are a human being. The difference between the guys who are able to be the biggest champions and the ones that are struggling to get to the highest level is the ability to not stay in those emotions for too long.

“For me, it’s really relatively short. So as soon as I experience it, I acknowledge it. I maybe burst. I scream on the court, whatever happens, but then I’m able to bounce back and reset.”

In contrast, Zverev had one of the worst on-court meltdowns by a superstar this century, somehow only copping a suspended sentence for his 2022 Mexico Open bad behaviour.

There is some suggestion of a medical reason behind Zverev’s lapses – he’s a type 1 diabetic, and other athletes have argued in the past that blood sugar levels caused their otherwise uncharacteristic bursts of anger. Though this writer, who has the same condition, has never felt anything close to that.

Either way, while Djokovic may no longer be at his absolute peak as a player, his mental strength remains unmatched. Zverev has the physical skills to beat him at his best – he has beaten the Serbian four times in their 12 career meetings, though never at a slam – but this is a larger gap to close.

IS THIS THE SECRET WEAPON THAT SPARKED SHOCK FINALIST?

It’s only fitting that the Australian Open final pits the two women who can’t seem to lose on Aussie soil.

But few came into the summer expecting Madison Keys to match Aryna Sabalenka with a spectacular run into the slam decider.

Keys has not lost all year, winning five matches in Adelaide including beating two top-10ers on route to the title, then beating three more top-10ers capped off by her semi-final comeback against Iga Swiatek at Melbourne Park.

And there could be a secret weapon behind her sudden form discovery – the one she wields every match.

As Ben Rothenberg explained on his Substack, Bounces, Keys had used Wilson racquets since she was a child – but her coach and husband Bjorn Fratangelo felt they were taking a toll on her body as they are “way too demanding for today’s game”.

Switching to a Yonex racquet last year, which also featured a different string material, both helped her escape a lingering wrist issue and saw her making more shots.

Keys even had to use a Yonex racquet painted black for a match in late 2024 because she was still under a Wilson contract.

You can learn more about the decision and her manager’s reluctance to permit the move behind the Bounces paywall but it’s safe to say the switch is paying off.

CAN ANYTHING, OR ANYONE, STOP SINNER?

It’s not like the defending champion needed much help, but we knew from the day of the draw that world No.1 Jannik Sinner had a favourable run to a second crown.

While he looked in danger at times against Holger Rune in the fourth round, that was more about the combination of illness and heat. Even with those obstacles, the Italian won in four sets.

What should’ve been his toughest match of the tournament, a quarter-final against the No.8 seed, was nothing of the sort. Alex de Minaur – as always seems to be the case when they meet – posed little challenge to Sinner who dropped just six games in three sets.

Getting American 21st seed Ben Shelton in the semi-finals should be another gift. Sure, Shelton is talented and has one of the biggest serves on tour, but in none of his three runs to a quarter-final or better at a slam (2023 Australian Open, 2023 US Open or this event) did he take a real scalp – other than beating compatriot Tommy Paul twice.

But more importantly for Sinner is the fact that, this deep in the tournament, he is playing in conditions that suit him perfectly.

An unseasonably cool second week in Melbourne, combined with night sessions, saw de Minaur complaining that Sinner felt almost unstoppable in the conditions they experienced during their quarter-final.

While Shelton has more power than the Aussie, by the sounds of things, that may not matter.

“In these types of conditions it’s even tougher to play against him,” de Minaur said in his press conference.

“So you go out there, you compete. You try everything. You bring every sort of different look that you can. But in these types of conditions where it’s a little bit colder and you can’t really get the ball out of his strike zone, he can just unload and not miss. It’s tough.

“You know, I think if we’re playing middle of the day on a stupidly hot day, then that’s when you can see some errors come out, and that’s when you probably see Jannik not play at his best. But conditions like today, it’s tough to rattle him at all.”