Lando Norris, Max Verstappen and Australia’s own Oscar Piastri head into the final race of the 2025 F1 season tonight all in contention for the world title. Live from midnight AEDT!
If the McLaren pair and Red Bull maestro Verstappen finish where they start, Norris (starting second) will be champion, just needing a podium finish to claim his maiden crown.
Verstappe (on pole) needs to win with Norris fourth or lower to claim an unthinkable fifth world championship in a row – not unthinkable because of his talent, but because of how far back he’s coming from. Piastri (starting third) must win with Norris sixth at best.
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Verstappen trailed Piastri by 104 points, and Norris by 70 points, just eight races ago. Yet he heads into tonight’s Abu Dhabi Grand Prix just 12 points back of Norris and four ahead of Piastri.
Piastri’s most realistic chance of winning the world title which was within his grasp a couple of months ago would involve a disaster for his teammate Norris – ideally, a first-corner collision with Verstappen.
To win the title Piastri must finish first with Norris sixth or lower – it seems implausible that Piastri will have the pace to win from third while Norris finishes that low without some sort of catastrophe – or second with Norris 10th or lower (and Verstappen off the podium).
“I need things to happen in the race to win the championship. So, I’ll wait and see if those things happen,” Piastri said.
No Australian has won the Formula 1 title since Alan Jones in 1980 and fans down under have believed McLaren has been favouring the Briton, Norris, all year.
Asked whether that was really happening Sky F1’s Martin Brundle conceded: “Subconsciously, possibly … I think he’s got some currency from (staying when the team was struggling).”
Norris does not need to take any risks tonight, and McLaren has prepared for what he’s described as a “worst nightmare” scenario with a conservative tyre choice.
The constructors champions have saved two new sets of hard tyres plus a fresh medium, a much more conservative set of tyres than any other team. Only Aston Martin (one set of new hards, one set of used hards) is close.
That will cover McLaren’s bases if the expected high tyre degradation turns the race into a two-stopper while also protecting themselves from heavy front tyre graining.
Complications from front graining were described by Norris as his “worst nightmare” earlier this season in China, and the tyres looked fragile during Friday practice.
“I think we have seen in practice that the level of degradation and graining was above expectation in a way,” McLaren team boss Andrea Stella said.
“A shout-out to our strategy team that said ‘let’s save the hard tyres’, which is what we did…. (for) a race where you have this level of graining and degradation it could be a good strategic option.”
For his part Verstappen will also try and make McLaren’s life more difficult, with his greatest weapon the ability to back up the pack.
Verstappen has no reason to race away at the front, given he needs Norris to be caught by at least two cars behind him, meaning he’s expected to slow the pace down and ensure the McLarens could be caught in traffic during the stops.
“I hope it’s not straightforward, the race, but hopefully that’s not because of me,” Verstappen said.
Starting grid for the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix
1 Max Verstappen (NED/Red Bull)
2 Lando Norris (GBR/McLaren)
3 Oscar Piastri (AUS/McLaren)
4 George Russell (GBR/Mercedes)
5 Charles Leclerc (MON/Ferrari)
6 Fernando Alonso (ESP/Aston Martin)
7 Gabriel Bortoleto (BRA/Sauber)
8 Esteban Ocon (FRA/Haas)
9 Isack Hadjar (FRA/Racing Bulls)
10 Yuki Tsunoda (JPN/Red Bull)
11 Oliver Bearman (GBR/Haas)
12 Carlos Sainz (ESP/Williams)
13 Liam Lawson (NZL/Racing Bulls)
14 Kimi Antonelli (ITA/Mercedes)
15 Lance Stroll (CAN/Aston Martin)
16 Lewis Hamilton (GBR/Ferrari)
17 Alex Albon (THA/Williams)
18 Nico Hulkenberg (GER/Sauber)
19 Pierre Gasly (FRA/Alpine)
20 Franco Colapinto (ARG/Alpine)
For Norris to win the title, he must:
(a) finish on the podium;
(b) finish fourth or fifth with Verstappen second or lower;
(c) finish sixth or seventh with Verstappen and Piastri second or lower;
(d) finish eighth with Verstappen third or lower and Piastri second or lower;
(e) finish ninth with Verstappen fourth or lower and Piastri second or lower;
(f) finish 10th with Verstappen fourth or lower and Piastri third or lower; or
(g)fail to score with Verstappen fifth or lower and Piastri third or lower.
For Verstappen to win the title, he must:
(a) finish first with Norris fourth or lower.
(b) finish second with Norris eighth or lower and Piastri third or lower; or
(c) finish third with Norris ninth or lower and Piastri second or lower.
Verstappen cannot win the title if he finishes fourth or lower.
For Piastri to win the title, he must:
(a) finish first with Norris sixth or lower; or
(b) finish second with Norris 10th or lower and Verstappen fourth or lower.
Piastri cannot win the title if he finishes third or lower.
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